The OKC-Area Housing Bubble - When will it pop??

[C_M_25]

Before I get going, I know what you are going to say: Housing bubble?? Seriously?? Now don't run away on me yet....

I will preface this in saying that I don't feel like we necessarily have a typical "bubble" where home values are going through the roof, but we definitely have a situation here. How much longer can continuous "unregulated" tract development continue in the suburbs of OKC before the market gets saturated with new homes? I was skimming through google maps the other day seeing what development is going on, and I couldn't believe the number of new neighborhoods going in...especially in the Edmond/Deer Creek area. There appears to be neighborhoods completely filled from section line to section line. There has to be thousands of houses in one neighborhood alone, and it doesn't show any signs of slowing down. It is insane how small these home lots are too! You could probably pee out your back door and hit your back fence. It's disgusting really.

I continued on to zillow to look at how many houses are for sale right now (I know it's a slow time for home sales so the numbers may be inflated), BUT there were thousands of houses for sale north of NW 150th st with new houses being added daily. How big of a problem is this? Are these developers running amok chasing profits? How much longer can we continue to develop and sprawl the suburbs before it all comes crashing down?

[C_M_25]

I copied this thread to another location. This is probably not the best place for this conversation. I just don't know how to delete this thread....

[AnguisHerba]

I don't really know enough about population growth in OKC, but just based on my own observation I feel inclined to agree with you. And regardless of whether there are actually enough people to fill all these houses, I definitely feel like there's a lot of subprime lending going on again. Another factor to consider - which the City of OKC has actually recognized in its comprehensive plan - is that the continued suburban expansion is not ecologically or financially sustainable.

Lots of factors at play here.

[oklip955]

Just for an example, I live east of i-35 in Edmond. Two miles south of me there are 6 housing additions going in. They are still in phase 1. There was one a mile or so east and south of me, phase one being built, Land for phase two was for sale and offered as acreages and not the small lots as in the developement. Basically the land was for sale. Buy all or some. As far as I've heard, any properties over about $250K are hard to sell right now.

[ChrisHayes]

I think there's a housing bubble nationwide. Not just in OKC. Now, the bubble might not be as bad in OKC as it is in other areas such as Austin, New York, or San Fransisco. However, I am of the opinion that there is too much building going on. I like seeing the construction, but it has to be balanced out with the number of people moving here. Eventually our market will begin to balance out. It can't come soon enough.

[mugofbeer]

I think there's a housing bubble nationwide. Not just in OKC. Now, the bubble might not be as bad in OKC as it is in other areas such as Austin, New York, or San Fransisco. However, I am of the opinion that there is too much building going on. I like seeing the construction, but it has to be balanced out with the number of people moving here. Eventually our market will begin to balance out. It can't come soon enough.

I agree wiyh you in some places but definitely disagree in others. Austin is not going to stop growing anytime soon and here in Denver, there is little to no affordable housing because we can't get condos built due to some well-meaning but detremental liability laws for builders. Millennials don't want new houses, when they want houses at all, they want old homes to refurbish and gentrify. Denver is about out of those so all we have is expensive apartments being built. Denver could use 25-50,000 affordable condos. As long as houses are selling, builders in OKC and most cities will build. However, interest rates are starting to rise and this, alone, could squash buying and construction almost overnight

[Johnb911]

I would say this is not just in terms of housing stock but housing prices. In my neighborhood in the Village, standard $/sqft prices seem to have gone up about 30% in the last couple years. That's with oil at $50-$60, and we aren't even a 'historic' neighborhood.

Now part of that could be specifically because of oil price, and the house prices we're looking at are in the 175-350k range. So maybe because of the depression in oil prices, folks that would normally be buying in the next level up are dropping down and putting pressure on the house prices in my neighborhood. What happens if oil goes to $75?