April 2024 - General Weather Discussion

[LakeEffect]

April coming in with OKC just on the edge of a severe weather day. If you're east of I-35, pay attention to your trusted weather sources...

[C_M_25]

I don’t normally start these thread so sorry for stepping on toes.

Been looking at the high res models for tomorrow, and it’s looking like they’re hinting at some pretty nice instability. Cape, lift, and shear all look promising for storm development just west of okc or right on top of us. Storm development looks to line out, but given the instability, large hail and tornadoes are in play…at least from what I’ve seen this morning. Definitely worth watching closely as we get closer to tomorrow afternoon.

[kukblue1]

Weather Twitter or Weather X what ever you want to call it just going mad tonight. On camp. Big Storms Tornadoes very possible. The other camp. Not enough low level shear no Tonadoes SMH Both side agree though this should be a big Hail event and there might be several storms dumping big hail not just one or two.

[C_M_25]

The NAM is absolutely blowing up some big storms southwest of us and are bringing them across. Skew-t’s range from weak to strong tornado. The HRRR is not showing the same trends. More southerly and easterly. Will need to watch closely.

[PoliSciGuy]

Weather Twitter or Weather X what ever you want to call it just going mad tonight. On camp. Big Storms Tornadoes very possible. The other camp. Not enough low level shear no Tonadoes SMH Both side agree though this should be a big Hail event and there might be several storms dumping big hail not just one or two.

Yeah either way I would not want to be out on the roads after 4pm or so tomorrow. Even if we don't get the tornadoes, significant hail seems likely.

[kukblue1]

Runs from the models coming in Sunday night. They either have storms blowing up right over OKC or just east of OKC. Check in the morning.

[SoonerDave]

So what this boils down to is that two models are forecasting two different setups.

The HRRR model shows a line of storms forming just south of the Metro and extending to the Red River, moving rapidly NE. The NAM shows a slightly smaller cluster somewhat SSW of OKC, also moving rapidly NE, but seemingly skirting *just southeast* of OKC.

So at this point it's a close shave. There comes a point where you can't get *that* precise with any of these models. Bottom line, stormy setup is there, it's April in Oklahoma, so be aware and plan accordingly.

[SEMIweather]

Mesoscale analysis will be important today, could be a couple of subtle features that lead to early convective initiation. Certainly the trend over the past 12 hours seems to be that the Metro is more likely to get in on the action. Rush hour timing of 4-7 p.m. seems correct, so definitely worth keeping a close eye on. Still looks like the highest tornado threat will be to the east of the Metro as the storms should mostly be done here by the time the low level jet starts to intensify around sunset. But the hail threat may well be maximized over the Metro as shear profiles are very favorable and the storms will likely impact us before any upscale growth into a QLCS occurs.

[C_M_25]

Both HRRR and NAM are pushing storm initiation further west from when I checked it yesterday. The HRRR is trying to initiate a few storms around Chickasha

[yukong]

Well, Mike Morgan posted this on his facebook feed at about 9:30..."Folks, Today, April 1, 2024, many areas of our state, including OKC metro, have the highest threat of damaging tornados since May 2013. I do not post this lightly. Pay Attention Know your plan."

[NikonNurse]

Well, Mike Morgan posted this on his facebook feed at about 9:30..."Folks, Today, April 1, 2024, many areas of our state, including OKC metro, have the highest threat of damaging tornados since May 2013. I do not post this lightly. Pay Attention Know your plan."

He really shouldn't post this inflammatory stuff when its still 6-8 hours from "maybe' .

[yukong]

Agreed completely. I was just stunned he would make that sort of claim. Highest threat since May 2013? Please. thankfully, a lot of comments on his post were dissing him for saying that.

[C_M_25]

Yeah the instability is quite high today. Anybody know if Norman is going to release a sounding a noon?

[Anonymous.]

Hi everyone! SPC outline is sig notation for hail for basically all of the Enhanced risk area. I would not be surprised to see an upgrade to Moderate for Tulsa-Springfield-STL region for tornado parameters. Current rain and cloud coverage is hindering ground air temperatures across the entire risk bubble today, but per recent visible satellite, there is some clearing taking place behind the convection up there around Joplin-Springfield.

As for OKC, storm chances will be for cells firing off the dryline around Lawton. I think the better chance for classic supercells will be S of the metro heading down toward the Red River.

Probably going to see several special balloon launches today, so we can get read on wind profiles - but prepare for large hail with any isolated cell.

[SEMIweather]

Yeah the instability is quite high today. Anybody know if Norman is going to release a sounding a noon?

2 p.m. special sounding from Norman, I believe.

[SoonerDave]

Well, Mike Morgan posted this on his facebook feed at about 9:30..."Folks, Today, April 1, 2024, many areas of our state, including OKC metro, have the highest threat of damaging tornados since May 2013. I do not post this lightly. Pay Attention Know your plan."

Mike Morgan is an absolute menace.

[SoonerDave]

He really shouldn't post this inflammatory stuff when its still 6-8 hours from "maybe' .

He is an atrocious hype-and-fear monger. I cannot stand him.

[WhoRepsTheLurker]

Risk area updated to a moderate from Wichita Falls to OKC to Tulsa down to McAlester. Tornado threat shifting slightly west with a 10% target on the metro with an enhanced chance of significant tornadoes on the east side of the metro up through Tulsa to Columbia, Mo and points east. Biggest threat seems to be large hail. Hodographs seem to be favorable for multiple supercells, but the low level jet should drive up the tornado risk.

[kukblue1]

BIG HAIL TODAY. If you hear Thunder take action

[Anonymous.]

SPC just upgraded all of C and NE OK to Moderate for increased confidence in large hail threat. In addition to increase in hail note, there is an extension on the sig outline for tornados. It now comes down to the SW, just E of OKC.

Another change for the MO area, is damaging wind threat has sig notation for likelihood of MCS with straight-line-winds and small tornado spinups along the line.

EDIT: saw others just posted this same info. Thanks for all who are contributing!

[Bunty]

I'm relieved it's going to be a cloudy stay without temps getting into the 80s. The experts insist it will be a rough day, but without the heat, I'm skeptical about the storms being very strong. Anyway, we shall see.

[Mr. Blue Sky]

Mike Morgan is an absolute menace.

So, after Morgan’s Facebook post this morning, should we all drive south? There’s a better time for that discussion rather than today with storms hours away, but wow, that alarmist post today sure brings May 2013 back to me.

[SoonerDave]

I'm relieved it's going to be a cloudy stay without temps getting into the 80s. The experts insist it will be a rough day, but without the heat, I'm skeptical about the storms being very strong. Anyway, we shall see.

Yeah where I am here in OKC the lower cloud deck is *trying* to break up but the clouds keep "winning." When I step outside for a moment and just use my old "brain assessment" the air doesn't have that "heaviness" I normally associate with a big storm day. Not saying we can't get them at all given temps in the high 70s/low 80s and 70%+ humidity, but I can sure appreciate how more clearing and heating to the northeast toward Tulsa would enhance the instability as the afternoon progresses. Sure looks like the $64,000 question will be just how close to C. OK these storms actually start forming. Sure looks like once they form, they'll be booking it NE like a racehorse

[bison34]

I know it's OKCtalk, but what about for Muskogee tonight? I'm traveling that way for work today and staying overnight.

[BG918]

^ I’m convinced you can “feel” when it’s going to be a big severe weather day and today doesn’t have that feel