Delta Connection to Orlando

[venture]

There are strong indications that an announcement is going to happen soon. There is another schedule load taking place this weekend for Delta and in it should be a new daily flight to Orlando. The flight will be effective November 1st and will be flown with a 50-seat ERJ-140 by Mesa Airlines dba Delta Connection.

Tulsa is also expected to be included along with Austin, Kansas City, Fayettevill (AR), Nashville, Huntsville, Birmingham, Jackson, New Orleans, Pensacola, Panama City, Miami, Columbia, Chattanooga, Raliegh/Durham, Toledo, and Dayton.

Will try to find out more.

[brianinok]

I was in New Orleans a couple of months ago, and I saw that they had a daily flight to Orlando. I was hoping that we would get one soon, too.

[venture]

New Orleans has 3 to Orlando on Delta alone...not sure what Southwest runs. Definitely will be nice to get this route out of here. I would also look to see Charlotte service on US Airways soon. They are slowly preparing the post-merger schedules so should hear something soon.

[BDP]

Thanks venture. Good info. Do you happen to know how many currently fly to Orlando out of OKC?

[venture]

The 2004 Q4 O&D Data to Orlando...

Passengers per day: 163.8
Average Fare (one way): $172.33
Largest Airline: American - 27.93% market share, $174.16 avg fare
Largest Lowest Airfare Airline: Continental - 17.51% market share, $167.89 avg fare

[brianinok]

venture, where do you get those numbers? That seems to be quite useful.

[venture]

The DOT releases them for every quarter, roughly 2 quarters behind. I'll locate the address for you if you'd like.

[BDP]

Thanks venture, always good info. You gave me that link a couple of weeks ago I think, so it's somewhere on this board. Maybe in one of the America West or Airport threads? I don't think I ever figure out how to use it in any effecient manner though...

[venture]

Yeah they can seem like greek if you don't know what you are looking at or for.

Some other observations I've made on nonstop routes the airport should go after that would probably do well:

ppd = passengers per day; ms = market share

Austin, TX - 107 ppd, Southwest largest with 72% ms. Southwest or American best option, once a day.
Baltimore, MD - 158 ppd, Southwest largest with 33% ms. Southwest or AirTran best shot, twice per day.
Charlotte, NC - 42 ppd, American largest with 32% ms. US Airways best option with connecting traffic key until local market develops more, twice per day on CRJ-900s.
Los Angeles, CA - 180 ppd, United largest with 25% ms. Alaska best option with a couple daily flights.
Nashville, TN - 94 ppd, Southwest largest with 38% ms. Southwest best option with a couple flights a day to fit their model.
New Orleans, LA - 100 ppd, Southwest largest with 57% ms. Southwest or Delta best option. One flight a day, Delta likely with a CRJ.
Orlando, FL - 163 ppd, American largest with 28% ms. Delta expected to serve this with at least one 50-seat RJ per day, can support probably 2 to 3 RJs.
Phildelphia, PA - 84 ppd, American largest with 35% ms. US Airways best option with a couple daily flights. Market will improve with nonstop service and PHL connecting opportunities.
Sacremento, CA - 110 ppd, United largest with 29% ms. Alaska could be a good fit with one daily flight. This is one of the least likely nonstop markets.
San Antonio, TX - 164 ppd, Southwest largest with 81% ms. Southwest best option with a flight or two a day, nonstop.
Seattle, WA - 148 ppd, American largest with 28% ms. Alaska best option with their main hub in Seattle. Could operate with a couple flights a day and also offer opportunity to route aircraft to OKC's AAR maintenance facility that handles some Alaska work right now.
Washington, DC - 193 ppd, American largest at 32% ms. US Airways best option into their major focus city at National Airport. Other options are Delta to National, United and Indy Air to Dulles Airport. At least a couple flights a day, similar to the current OKC-Newark schedule.

[BDP]

Thanks again. That's exactly what I wanted to check out last time.

Do these combine airports in the market. For example, is Los Angeles just LAX or does it include Burbank, Ontario, John Wayne, etc?

Would there be any reason for an airline that dominates without a non-stop to offer one? For example, is there any motivation for Southwest to fly non-stop to Austin when they control almost 3/4s of that market already?

[brianinok]

If they are going to add an Orlando flight, they should look at LA, San Antonio, and DC. All have greater ppd. Austin, Baltimore, New Orleans, Sacremento, and Seattle all have over 100 ppd-- this would also be good choices.

Something else to think about: When combining airports in the same metro area, the numbers will increase. For instance, there are 3 in the DC area (Baltimore, National, Dulles), and LA has a few (LAX, Burbank, Orange Co, etc.). I would think a few flights a day to National and a few a day to LAX would be really worth it.

[venture]

Thanks again. That's exactly what I wanted to check out last time.

Do these combine airports in the market. For example, is Los Angeles just LAX or does it include Burbank, Ontario, John Wayne, etc?

Would there be any reason for an airline that dominates without a non-stop to offer one? For example, is there any motivation for Southwest to fly non-stop to Austin when they control almost 3/4s of that market already?

It only combines same city airports - such as Washington National and Dulles (even though Dulles is way out there). It breaks out LAX, Burbank, and Ontario.

As far as an incentive to do nonstop if they control it via connections...when it is Southwest, not really. Other airlines sometimes want to capitalize on the higher yeild potential and will put on a smaller jet (50-70 seats) to handle this. One thing of interest, even though Continental Express' Newark flights go to the hub there...the vast majority of the traffic is O&D. They ae clearly enjoying the higher revenues by keeping the 50-seat ERJ-145XLR on the route over upgrading to a mainline 737.

[venture]

If they are going to add an Orlando flight, they should look at LA, San Antonio, and DC. All have greater ppd. Austin, Baltimore, New Orleans, Sacremento, and Seattle all have over 100 ppd-- this would also be good choices.

Something else to think about: When combining airports in the same metro area, the numbers will increase. For instance, there are 3 in the DC area (Baltimore, National, Dulles), and LA has a few (LAX, Burbank, Orange Co, etc.). I would think a few flights a day to National and a few a day to LAX would be really worth it.

I went ahead and combined all Los Angeles area airports...the ppd number goes to 396.28. That is kind of crazy without a nonstop flight. I would have though America West, now US Airways would have been the route - but they are wanting to cut most of the extra flights to the west unless they are from eastern business centers where a connection is too inconvienent. They also don't want to overfly Phoenix like they are doing from Los Angeles to New York - which is being cut.

One thing of note...Fayetteville, AR via Northwest Arkansas Regional Airport has 122.7 ppd to the LA area. American serves this route daily with a single CRJ-700 (70 seater)...mainly thanks to Wal Mart's asking.

[brianinok]

Especially after seeing your last post about NWA airport, it makes me realize that we have got to get a dynamic airport director who will go after these airlines to get direct flights. If they have a flight on a CRJ-700, we could support 3-5 CRJ's or 2-3 737s/MD-80s. We could also support flights to quite a few cities on the 50 seaters as well.

Also, I went to that website. Can you tell me where you find that information?? I sure can't find it on there. Am I blind?

[venture]

http://ostpxweb.dot.gov/aviation/index.html

Click on Table 6 for each date range. It will be a text file...easiest thing to do is open it with Excel and save it as an excel worksheet.

[BDP]

If it's making sense for Continental to fly to Newark on an O&D basis, it seems that someone is missing an opportunity to serve us a non-stop to Los Angeles.

Do they usually get a premium on non-stops? I've flown the Continental to Newark flight and at the time it seemed a little more expensive than some other flights to the area, but, man, is it worth it. Cutting your travel time in half and avoiding additional airports is worth something, imo.

[venture]

Typically airlines will charge a premium for nonstop service...and you like said it is normally worth it.

I do agree about LAX service...something is missing there, and I think Alaska would be the perfect target with their significant west coast network.

[BDP]

I'm guessing the fact that that there is a hub for many airlines between us and LA is a factor, kind of like the Phoenix factor you mentioned for SWA and AW. If so, I think your thoughts on Alaska makes sense. How much interest do the airlines have to route passengers through their hubs, beyond assuring more full flights? Is there an opportunity cost to them when they don't do that?

[brianinok]

venture, when will this new schedule be loaded (whatever that means)? And will there be some official announcement, or will the option just start poping up online?

[venture]

Flight is now loaded...Nov 1 is the first day. Operated by Atlantic Southeast.

Delta Air Lines
DLEV 4895 Will Rogers World (OKC), Oklahoma City, OK, USA 07:30
Orlando Int'l (MCO), Orlando, FL, USA 11:15
Non-stop
CRJ 2h45min Tuesday, November 1, 2005
--- Daily

Delta Air Lines
DLEV 4894 Orlando Int'l (MCO), Orlando, FL, USA 18:55
Will Rogers World (OKC), Oklahoma City, OK, USA 20:55
Non-stop
CRJ 3h00min Tuesday, November 1, 2005
--- Daily

Now for the bad news...

Delta will cut back to just 3 daily flights to Cincinnati as of Dec 1st. Flights depart 645, 1025, and 341pm - all operated by 50-seat CRJs. Also Salt Lake City will be axed back to 3 flights a day on the same day. Flights depart 855a, 230p, and 500pm. Atlanta remains unchanged.

Overall that is 2 flights to Salt Lake that are cut, or about 140 seats a day, and 1 flight to Cincy cut or 50 seats a day.

[HOT ROD]

Well, at least there is another NONSTOP destination daily! ORLANDO!!!! Way cool!

I can only imagine the market would grow given both are major league cities.

[venture]

The trick to growth here will be yeilds. They'll see how this does with the high cost 50-seater, but perhaps we can get another frequency or two down the road. Beyond that...I think we may get Miami service out of American - simply due to their massive Central/South American hub there. Tampa and Lauderdale come to mind, but those are traditionally stronger from the Midwest and Northeast. If you go to Lauderdale...you'd be shocked how many Ohio tags there are. LOL

But definitely great news and another nonstop destination - which is ALWAYS a plus.

[brianinok]

How is it possible that this has completely missed Oklahoma City's media and the airport? It's here and on Delta's website in a press release (not to mention all airline booking sights). But it is nowhere to be found on flyokc.com, newsok.com, or any of the tv stations. That is amazing.

[russellc]

Venture, my roommate in college was from Ohio, and he said most of his neighbors either own a home or timeshare in Florida, and most retire there too. I guess they want to get away from the cold winters.

[venture]

Brian...

I actually sent an email to each of the news stations, but obviously they don't care. As for the airport, Karen Carney is a pathetic example of a press agent for an airport. I've never seen anyone so standoffish to people that have no direct relation to an airline, that would send a news bit or tip.

Russell...

Yeah, we call them "snowbirds" - I'm originally from Ohio myself. Sometimes you just to warm up. I had enough after last year and the 55 inches of snow in an area that normally gets 30. Though it was nice having snow on the ground for most of the winter.

Back on topic.