OKC Sales Tax Receipts Decline Again

[king183]

Any idea what's going on that is causing sales tax receipts to decline in such a manner? Makes me worried about MAPS.

After 18 months of growth, Oklahoma City's sales tax receipts have dropped two months in a row — a fact that has the attention of city leaders. Sales tax is the biggest single contributor to the city's budget. Sales tax growth is an indicator of the city's overall economic health.

Sales tax receipts decline for second consecutive month in Oklahoma City | News OK

[adaniel]

The furloughs at Tinker and some lingering uncertainty at Chesapeake are probably the main culprits. I wouldnt foucs too much on the monthly numbers. Last May and June of 2012 were probably inflated by Finals fever. The total yearly number still looks to be in good shape.

Also, if there's one good thing about the tornadoes last week, this area is going to get an economic boost of about $2 billion over the next year in rebuilding activity. That should reverse any sort of decline, especially considering this area is essentially at full employment.

[king183]

Since the southside seems to be a weak spot insofar as sales tax is concerned, I'm hoping the revitalization of Crossroads can reclaim dollars lost to other areas.

[LakeEffect]

Sales tax receipted are down year over year, but that's not always a bad thing if the previous year was up drastically from a previous year. Year-to-date compared to previous year-to-date is the better measure, and you'll see that it's up.

[LakeEffect]

Unfortunately, the recent tornado will create a boom in tax receipts for the next year or so. The May 2009 hail storm had a long, positive effect on tax receipts, and this is much bigger.

[OKCTalker]

Not alarming:

2013 YTD sales tax receipts are up 4.7% compared with 2012 YTD.
May 2013 receipts are lower than May 2012, but May 2012 had an unusual gain of 10.3% over May 2011.
We should see large receipts in May & June in SOKC due to storm-related purchases.

Our April unemployment rate was 4.1%, down from 4.7% in March, and it has been the lowest unemployment rate among large cities in the US for the past 13 months.

[LakeEffect]

Not alarming:

2013 YTD sales tax receipts are up 4.7% compared with 2012 YTD.
May 2013 receipts are lower than May 2012, but May 2012 had an unusual gain of 10.3% over May 2011.
We should see large receipts in May & June in SOKC due to storm-related purchases.

Our April unemployment rate was 4.1%, down from 4.7% in March, and it has been the lowest unemployment rate among large cities in the US for the past 13 months.

We won't see large receipts for tornado-related work until later (maybe June, likely July), and it'll continue at least a year.

[Larry OKC]

I agree. No cause for concern yet. We are just over 3 years into the 7.75 year long tax and IIRC revenues have been multi-millions above the projections to date. There are going to be fluctuations from time to time. One thing the City is very good at is projecting revenue over a long term. The Mayor stated that they were within $2 million of projections over the course of the MAPS for Kids sales tax (unclear if they were over or under). The more pressing concern is the City's ability to estimate costs.

[HangryHippo]

I agree. No cause for concern yet. We are just over 3 years into the 7.75 year long tax and IIRC revenues have been multi-millions above the projections to date. There are going to be fluctuations from time to time. One thing the City is very good at is projecting revenue over a long term. The Mayor stated that they were within $2 million of projections over the course of the MAPS for Kids sales tax (unclear if they were over or under). The more pressing concern is the City's ability to estimate costs.

Very solid post, Larry.