General Weather Discussion - May 2016

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[Anonymous.]

Nice quiet weather during this break. Next event timeframe is around late this coming weekend. Looks like another potent severe storm setup.

[bchris02]

What are you thinking about tornadoes for this upcoming system? The SPC outlook seems to focus mostly on a large hail threat at this time.

[LocoAko]

What are you thinking about tornadoes for this upcoming system? The SPC outlook seems to focus mostly on a large hail threat at this time.

Definitely a possibility though it is too low to pinpoint where the highest threat may be. As of now some of the issues that were present with last Tuesday's threat seem to be at least somewhat mitigated in comparison (though aren't perfect).

[bchris02]

The SPC forecast seems to still be focusing on large hail and damaging winds as the primary threat for Day 4 (Sunday). It now has Monday's threat shifted east of our area.

Anonymous and LocoAko, would you agree with this?

[Anonymous.]

Yea it looks like Sunday is a late afternoon-evening dryline setup in W OK. Then Monday is remnants from Sunday into eastern OK, with an additional refire in the afternoon in eastern OK.

[John1744]

Looks like the panhandle could have some big ugly storms tomorrow.

[Achilleslastand]

When is the rain moving in today? This afternoon?

[bchris02]

Only a couple more weeks before storm season starts winding down. Are there any big days on the horizon? I know tomorrow could be significant in the panhandle, but what about central Oklahoma?

[Anonymous.]

Tomorrow looks like a potent very local setup for TX PH. Could see HP supercells drift into W OK heading into the evening hours. Maybe a wind threat overnight if storms develop into a complex of some type.

This week in general looks relatively cool and has chances of rain/storms throughout.

I don't see any major days on the horizon at this time. But several storms systems will be hanging around.

[Anonymous.]

Storm complexes forming in TX PH now. Models are turning these into little bow echos overnight and sending them across OK. Damaging wind and heavy rain will be primary concerns.

[Anonymous.]

Line of storms coming towards C OK is capable of 70+ mph winds.

[bchris02]

Looks like our next severe chances may be next Sunday/Monday. Thoughts? Does it look particularly high-end?

Out of curiosity, when looking at this..

http://www.weatherstreet.com/states/...0-forecast.htm

..it shows the inverted trough up in the panhandle and southwest Kansas. Does that mean that is the area most likely for high-end severe weather?

[baralheia]

Picked up an inch and a half of rain from the storms last night at my place on the south side. Good soaking. The winds were pretty crazy though and a neighbor lost the top of her tree, which took out the electrical service drop to a couple of homes.

[Bobby821]

Question, I am planning on shooting off fireworks for the 4th of July this year and was wondering if the outlooks for now through early July. how do the long range outlooks look for rain vs dry for early July. Basically does it look like we will stay in a wetter pattern till then or will things be drying up and we be looking at drought conditions?

[jn1780]

Question, I am planning on shooting off fireworks for the 4th of July this year and was wondering if the outlooks for now through early July. how do the long range outlooks look for rain vs dry for early July. Basically does it look like we will stay in a wetter pattern till then or will things be drying up and we be looking at drought conditions?

Things are not going to deteriorate that fast where your not going to be able to shoot off fireworks in July especially after all this rain we have been seeing. Besides, Mid-June through late-August its dry anyway, but there is plenty of green vegetation to keep fire risk at bay.

[bchris02]

Question, I am planning on shooting off fireworks for the 4th of July this year and was wondering if the outlooks for now through early July. how do the long range outlooks look for rain vs dry for early July. Basically does it look like we will stay in a wetter pattern till then or will things be drying up and we be looking at drought conditions?

In most years, early July is still fine. June is our wettest month and things are still pretty green around the 4th. It doesn't get extremely dry until late July into August.

[Bobby821]

It looks like a more typical May severe weather pattern is setting up for Oklahoma starting next week into at least the 1st of June. We have seen a rather mild May so far but that is likely to change starting next week.

[Anonymous.]

Sunday looks like a TX PH type setup in the plains, but we will have to watch where the dryline fires.

The days following Sunday looks like severe weather is likely across a broad area of OK, we will be able to pinpoint better once we get to this weekend.

[Bobby821]

Sunday looks like a TX PH type setup in the plains, but we will have to watch where the dryline fires.

The days following Sunday looks like severe weather is likely across a broad area of OK, we will be able to pinpoint better once we get to this weekend.

Yeah I am seeing some days with cape values over 6000 J/KG that potent

[Soonerman12]

Just a heads up, the SPC has a 15% for Day 5 for Oklahoma. This includes OKC and Tulsa. Be weather aware as the Severe weather looks to really ramp back up next week, possibly several chances for our state.


ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 190916
SPC AC 190916

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0416 AM CDT THU MAY 19 2016

VALID 221200Z - 271200Z

...DISCUSSION...
AN INCREASINGLY SEVERE-CONDUCIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED LATE THIS
WEEKEND THROUGH THE EARLY/MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS PARTS OF THE PLAINS. THIS WILL GENERALLY BE ATTRIBUTABLE TO
SEMI-PERSISTENT TROUGHING WEST OF THE ROCKIES AND
NORTHWARD-DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...WITH A PARTICULARLY
MOISTURE-RICH/POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. EVEN IN THE ABSENCE OF GRAPHICALLY DEPICTED SEVERE
RISKS BEYOND MONDAY /DUE TO GREATER GUIDANCE VARIABILITY AND
MESOSCALE UNCERTAINTIES/...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THROUGH
THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
CONUS.

DAY 4/SUNDAY...A LEAD PORTION OF THE WESTERN STATES TROUGH IS LIKELY
TO SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS/CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...WHILE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSITIONS NORTHWARD. THE
DAKOTAS/WESTERN NEB AND OTHER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
APPEAR TO WARRANT A 15-PERCENT ORGANIZED SEVERE RISK NEAR AN
ADVANCING FRONT AND A SHARPENING LEE TROUGH...WHILE OTHER SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INCLUDING
WESTERN OK AND WEST/NORTHWEST TX IN VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE.

DAY 5/MONDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR AS FAR NORTH AS
MN/IA...BUT A SOMEWHAT MORE CERTAIN SEVERE RISK IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS INCLUDING PARTS OF KS/OK INTO NORTH/WEST TX
NEAR THE DRYLINE.

DAYS 6/7 TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...SEVERE WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED BOTH
DAYS...WITH PARTS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS /KS-OK-NORTH TX/ TO
LOWER MO VALLEY/OZARKS APPEARING MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE SEVERE
WEATHER PER LATEST GUIDANCE. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT AT LEAST
CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISKS ARE PLAUSIBLE ON BOTH DAYS AS FORECAST
DETAILS ARE BETTER RESOLVED.

..GUYER.. 05/19/2016


http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exp...?1463665917787

[bchris02]

It's starting to look like Monday is the big day to worry about..and possibly Tuesday.

Right now, is this looking like a classic high-end setup or do things still have to come together?

I know high CAPE alone doesn't necessarily mean a significant tornado outbreak. You also have to have lower-level wind shear and a CAP that isn't too weak or two strong. Are things looking to set up in that manner?

[Soonerman12]

You are right, you can get pretty violent tornadoes with only CAPE 1,000-2,000 j/kg but they could be pretty isolated like the storms were that hit Sulphur, OK a few weeks back. As of now all modes will be possible, that could change and be better or worse.

[SoonerDave]

It's starting to look like Monday is the big day to worry about..and possibly Tuesday.

Right now, is this looking like a classic high-end setup or do things still have to come together?

I know high CAPE alone doesn't necessarily mean a significant tornado outbreak. You also have to have lower-level wind shear and a CAP that isn't too weak or two strong. Are things looking to set up in that manner?

For something that far out, you just can't get that precise yet. And even when the "variables" seem really well orchestrated, and they do feel confident enough to give a Day 5 outlook, sometimes it *still* doesn't come together, a la a few Tuesdays ago. Best plan this far out is to just be aware, and see how things evolve.

[bchris02]

For something that far out, you just can't get that precise yet. And even when the "variables" seem really well orchestrated, and they do feel confident enough to give a Day 5 outlook, sometimes it *still* doesn't come together, a la a few Tuesdays ago. Best plan this far out is to just be aware, and see how things evolve.

So far, the TV meteorologists seem to be taking the "wait and see" approach on this as opposed to hyping it. Hopefully this doesn't evolve into something like we had during the last week of May in 2013.