July 2023 - General Weather Discussion

[Anonymous.]

Currently dying overnight MCS is moving through NC into NE OK. The southern edge is the most active with new development and is attempting to expand down into C OK. At least it will provide some cloud cover to keep temperatures in check this morning.

We should have more of the same development this afternoon that will form into another MCS. Likely impacting more of the state late Wed into Thurs AM.


SPC has a broad Slight Risk across basically all of the central plains for this action.

[chssooner]

OKC needs to get some rain. We keep missing it by like, 40 miles. If not, drought will return. With a vengeance, given El Nino returning with higher Temps.

[jn1780]

The weather this week looks nice: Upper 80's to low 90's with at least small chance of rain on a few days. That's better than most July's.

[BG918]

The weather this week looks nice: Upper 80's to low 90's with at least small chance of rain on a few days. That's better than most July's.

This weather is amazing compared to this time last year. Good rain chances across the state this week (especially the drought-stricken northern parts) before serious heat/humidity returns next week

[Anonymous.]

Cluster of storms up across SE CO/SW KS is forecast to become large MCS overnight and expand down to the SE into OK by morning hours. Damaging wind and localized flash flood is the main threats.

[Bunty]

Cluster of storms up across SE CO/SW KS is forecast to become large MCS overnight and expand down to the SE into OK by morning hours. Damaging wind and localized flash flood is the main threats.

I predict a bust. Because the rain out ahead of it isn't holding up well. Only got .02" from it. And those large rain amounts NWS is predicting are unbelievable. But won't mind being proven wrong.

[Pete]

Wow, really a nice, steady rain right now at my house.

We've been incredibly lucky thus far this spring and summer.

[chssooner]

Southeast OKC getting missed again. As usual.

[Teo9969]

We're going to have green grass in August...this is as wet as late as I ever remember in Oklahoma.

[Anonymous.]

We're going to have green grass in August...this is as wet as late as I ever remember in Oklahoma.

Yes, this is likely to go down as the best Spring-Summer stretch for most of C and W OK in the last decade.

The current MCS this morning is moving out and will give-way for a wonderful afternoon. Then we do it all again late tonight into Friday morning with another MCS. Models are suggesting this same pattern repeating through Sunday. Even some action Tuesday morning showing up.

Friday morning:

[foodiefan]

. . . almost 3/4" in my gauge and still coming down! (Meridian/NW 36th) Slow, glorious, soaking rain!!

[Bunty]

Southeast OKC getting missed again. As usual.

I was right to some extent about this major rain event being a bust. Stillwater area only got around .15" rain overnight. NWS predicted 1to 2 in. overnight. For today, it had been 2 to 3" but now revised to 3/4 to 1". For tonight, new rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.

As usual, it's always amazing how some places get a lot more rain. Anyway, my prediction of a bust wasn't as widespread as I thought it would be, certainly not on the same scale as about two weeks ago when the NWS predicted the Texas heatwave would dramatically surge across the rest of the Oklahoma with highs up to around 108. I was sure skeptical about that. As it turned out, highs were only around 98. Much of Oklahoma still hasn't gone over 100, including my thermometer.

Has weather gotten yet harder to forecast accurately, possibly due to climate change, or meteorologists less competent? Or too much reliance on computer projections and models by TV weather people for the drama? Emily Sutton showed Stillwater is going to get over 3" for the second highest amount in the state. As usual, I'll believe it when I see it.

[soonergolfer]

I was right to some extent about this major rain event being a bust. Stillwater area only got around .15" rain overnight. NWS predicted 1to 2 in. overnight. For today, it had been 2 to 3" but now revised to 3/4 to 1". For tonight, new rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.

As usual, it's always amazing how some places get a lot more rain. Anyway, my prediction of a bust wasn't as widespread as I thought it would be, certainly not on the same scale as about two weeks ago when the NWS predicted the Texas heatwave would dramatically surge across the rest of the Oklahoma with highs up to around 108. I was sure skeptical about that. As it turned out, highs were only around 98. Much of Oklahoma still hasn't gone over 100, including my thermometer.

Has weather gotten yet harder to forecast accurately, possibly due to climate change, or meteorologists less competent? Or too much reliance on computer projections and models by TV weather people for the drama? Emily Sutton showed Stillwater is going to get over 3" for the second highest amount in the state. As usual, I'll believe it when I see it.

Looks pretty accurate to me. I don’t see what you’re complaining about. Maybe you should ask Emily to make her forecasted amounts to the hundredth of an inch so your bet against them even more.

[gjl]

2" here from the morning rains.

[Pete]

2" here from the morning rains.

Thank you. Your rain gauge for me is the most accurate reflection of what happened at my house and that's exactly what I had predicted.

[gjl]

I think I know where you live and your house is 3 miles due east of mine measured with Find Lot Size site. I have 2 rain gauges, one in the front and one in the back and they usually are within 1/8" of each other. Funny the one in the back by my tomato plants lately when there is at least 1" in it I find a wasp in it drowning. Today there are 2 wasps in it drowning.

[Bunty]

Looks pretty accurate to me. I don’t see what you’re complaining about. Maybe you should ask Emily to make her forecasted amounts to the hundredth of an inch so your bet against them even more.

The map simply proves me part right. North central Oklahoma got little more than sprinkles just as I predicted, or in other words, a BUST! The atmosphere there must have been too stable as the main storm system entered it.

You must not be an Emily Sutton fan. She does use a computer model to project to the hundredth inch along with Mike Morgan. I doubt they will ever give up looking ridiculous doing that. No. 1 McAlester is projected to get 4". I didn't bother remembering exact amounts.

I'm still an Emily Sutton fan. She kills doing "Over the Rainbow".

[BG918]

The map simply proves me part right. North central Oklahoma got little more than sprinkles just as I predicted, or in other words, a BUST! The atmosphere there must have been too stable as the main storm system entered it.

You must not be an Emily Sutton fan. She does use a computer model to project to the hundredth inch along with Mike Morgan. I doubt they will ever give up looking ridiculous doing that. No. 1 McAlester is projected to get 4". I didn't bother remembering exact amounts.

Your area should do well with the next MCS and again Saturday. Most of northern OK should end up with at least 2"+ before the end of the weekend

[Anonymous.]

These storm complexes are incredibly difficult to forecast. And you need to keep in mind that the TV mets are just showing computer model forecasts or perhaps a conglomerate of several. These models obviously differ wildly from run-to-run and model-to-model. Watching a 10pm news cast where a local met is showing 1 model and expecting to see that amount in your Stillwater backyard is just not realistic.

Look for trends, especially once the storms begin to take shape - even when they're hundreds of miles away. You can often see the overall development pattern and storm movement once these MCSes begin to form. Then from there, look ahead and check out the environment they are moving into. There is no perfect science for any one person's location.

[progressiveboy]

Since moving back to OKC, I must admit that July rains have been great! Lots of lush lawns and full shrubs. Our trees and flowers at my condo grounds look fantastic! This summer has been very bearable!

[Anonymous.]

This morning’s MCS is swinging in from the WNW right now. The strongest storms and associated wind gusts is with south end which is taking aim on the W side of OKC. If this intensity remains intact, you can expect the storms to have 45-60MPH gusts.

[Anonymous.]

The portion of the line coming into OKC is technically severe right now (~7:31am). However, the winds measured on nearby Mesonet stations only show up to 40mph.

Looks like this will largely be another nice morning drink.

[Pete]

It's black as night at my house.

Something wicked this way comes.

[FighttheGoodFight]

Soaked today. Rain in July. I love it.

[TheTravellers]

Since moving back to OKC, I must admit that July rains have been great! Lots of lush lawns and full shrubs. Our trees and flowers at my condo grounds look fantastic! This summer has been very bearable!

*Too* lush, lol! I've needed to mow since Wed, but couldn't that day and now it looks like it'll be at least Mon before I can, going to be slow-going through the jungle it's become...