OU Football 2024 Season

[unfundedrick]

With the SEC media days starting it's time to get serious about the upcoming season and football deserves it's own thread.

https://www.oudaily.com/sports/ou-so...c0bd0a68e.html

[traxx]

I'm excited about the games we will be playing but I'm already tired of S-E-C, S-E-C fans.

[mugofbeer]

I'm excited about the games we will be playing but I'm already tired of S-E-C, S-E-C fans.

Lol. You might want to invest in some ear buds to drown it out.

[Boop]

It is going to be hard to get used to playing in the SEC now

[SEMIweather]

7-5 season incoming…

[BoulderSooner]

7-5 season incoming…

9-3 or 10-2

[jedicurt]

9-3 or 10-2

i have 8-4 or 9-3, depending upon if we beat texas

[FighttheGoodFight]

I'm a big fan of OU but ya'll are wild thinking 10-2. 7 wins is a good result with this schedule.

[SEMIweather]

FWIW, my game-by-game breakdown would be something like the following:

Temple - 100%
Houston - 90%
Tulane - 85%
Tennessee - 55%
@ Auburn - 45%
vs Texas - 35%
South Carolina - 75%
@ Ole Miss - 35%
Maine - 100%
@ Missouri - 30%
Alabama - 55%
@ LSU - 35%

That adds up to 7.4 wins, choosing to round down from there because no one tends to do well in their first year of leveling up in conference strength (A&M being the one exception with a generational player at QB). Also, this team is 5-5 on the road in the Venables era, and the road games are brutal this year. In general, OU really drew the short end of the straw with regards to the conference opponents they are facing over the next two seasons. Sark appears to have figured things out at Texas, Missouri and Ole Miss are both punching well above their weight at the moment, I can’t see Alabama and LSU having too much of a downward slide given that they both have proven coaches, and Tennessee and Auburn seem to be on an upward trajectory. South Carolina is the only real gimme in conference play this year, but I could even see that flipping around next year as they always get a good home crowd and I suspect that they will also have a new coach by that time as well.

[Pete]

Most betting sites have OU at 8 wins, which is still better than 10 in the Allstate 12.

[jn1780]

7-5 season incoming…

Maybe they will do the opposite of what they normally do and actually beat expectations instead of not meet them.

[Snowman]

Most betting sites have OU at 8 wins, which is still better than 10 in the Allstate 12.

The sponsorship rebranding seems like should be the time to either drop the team count entirely or update it to the current team count.

[SEMIweather]

Maybe they will do the opposite of what they normally do and actually beat expectations instead of not meet them.

I think OU has generally done a good job of meeting expectations over the past decade. 2015 was really the only year that they overachieved, but at the same time, I’d say that the only disappointing seasons were 2014, 2021, and 2022. The 2016-2020 teams all ended up about where you would have expected, as did last year’s team. 2017 obviously hurts because that is the one OU team in recent memory which realistically could have (and maybe should have) won the National Championship.

FWIW, I think OU could go 7-5 this season and still be one of the 20 best teams in the country. The schedule is just that challenging, even with a relatively weak non-conference slate. 10-2 would almost certainly be enough to make the playoff, and even 9-3 could potentially get it done.

[citywokchinesefood]

It is 12-0 until they lose.

[Martin]

Houston - 90%

i'm closer to 75% on that one and wondering if houston could even deliver an upset this year... willie fritz was able to accomplish a lot at tulane and gave the sooners some competition when they played each other in 2021. houston doesn't exactly have a stellar roster, but i'd have to imagine that they have access to more talent than tulane.

[BoulderSooner]

i'm closer to 75% on that one and wondering if houston could even deliver an upset this year... willie fritz was able to accomplish a lot at tulane and gave the sooners some competition when they played each other in 2021. houston doesn't exactly have a stellar roster, but i'd have to imagine that they have access to more talent than tulane.

Houston is 100% ..

[Martin]

Houston is 100% ..

maybe so... it is fritz' first year and it could take him some time to build up.

[SEMIweather]

Holgorsen absolutely decimated Houston’s roster…I think Fritz will have things humming there by the time OU plays Houston again in 2028, but it’s going to take him a couple of years to get things going there, IMO.

On the other hand, Tulane replaced a great coach with another really solid coach so I tend to think that will be the trickiest non-conference game (though OU should really still be winning it by 2-3 possessions).

[Martin]

Holgorsen absolutely decimated Houston’s roster…I think Fritz will have things humming there by the time OU plays Houston again in 2028, but it’s going to take him a couple of years to get things going there, IMO.

On the other hand, Tulane replaced a great coach with another really solid coach so I tend to think that will be the trickiest non-conference game (though OU should really still be winning it by 2-3 possessions).

that makes sense... i hadn't accounted for holgorsen's bad recruiting.

[traxx]

Talking heads gonna talking head. That's why we play the games.

They're saying Texas is gonna be the class of the new sec alongside Bama and UGA. Texas. Y'know, the team that couldn't be bothered to win more than 4 B12 titles. Now they're gonna come in and dominate the, supposedly, tougher sec. Texas is still getting credit for beating a Sooner team with no QB and their worst team in over a decade. OU gets no credit for beating texas' best team in over a decade last year. Funny how that works.

SEC also trying to explain to us who mizzou is. Oh, I guess we had our eyes closed those 90 years we played them in the Missouri Valley, Big 6, 7, 8, and 12. Who are they again? Do they have a team at Missouri?

[aDark]

@ Auburn - 45%
vs Texas - 35%
@ Missouri - 30%

SEMI, I'd add about 10%-20% to each of the above and we end up at 8 wins.

I can't imagine Missouri or Auburn comes into our game with odds that heavy. Vegas has OU ahead of Missouri and Auburn in their futures forecast and, with us all in the same conference, we can deduce that means Vegas is higher on OU.

I'd put @Auburn at 60% and @ Missouri at 55%

I think Texas is 45%, mainly because it's nearly a coin flip in any year, even when one team is stronger on paper.

[traxx]

Don't forget, Vegas isn't in the business of predicting who will win. Their odds, point spreads, etc are designed to get the most people betting as possible.

[Boop]

Sooners really surprised us from going 6-7 to 10-3 last year which is a huge improvement, I have no idea what their record will be but I hope Sooners will have another winning season this year!

[Dob Hooligan]

Don't forget, Vegas isn't in the business of predicting who will win. Their odds, point spreads, etc are designed to get the most people betting as possible.

Slight adjustment-The main purpose of the points spread is to get half the betting money on each side of the spread. Books get wiped out when either side is loaded with money.

[Pete]

^

And the odds makers only set the initial line; people actually putting their own money down is what determines the spreads.