May 2024 - General Weather Discussion

[C_M_25]

I wonder if the atmosphere will be able to recover this afternoon after this mornings round of storms?

[SoonerDave]

I wonder if the atmosphere will be able to recover this afternoon after this mornings round of storms?

The other question is whether these storms will create an outflow boundary for other convection.

What a goofy setup

[jedicurt]

Here's a crazy one for you: There's a reverse-rotating (anticyclonic) tornado in s. Oklahoma right now near Grandfield.

Did *anyone* see these tornadoes coming today? Wow.

I know Anti-Cyclonic is the term used by all Meteorologists, but this one term has always bothered me. It should be Counter-Cyclonic. Anti-Cyclonic would be no spin at all. sorry. just a personal pet peeve, that I have been told many times before by actual Meteorologists that I'm wrong. but I bring it up every time there is a reverse-rotating tornado

[Hollywood]

Welcome to May. Some historical data for May in Oklahoma from 1950 to present day.

There have been a total of 1776 tornados in May of which;

• 122 were F?/EF?
• 699 were F0/EF0
• 569 were F1/EF1
• 262 were F2/EF2
• 89 were F3/EF3
• 29 were F4/EF4
• 6 were F5/EF5

[Hollywood]

Anyone creating a “May” board?

Done.

[Hollywood]

Attachment 18797

[C_M_25]

The models are in a bit of disagreement currently. Some are showing that the atmosphere can recharge and give a nice wave of storms in south central ok and others are showing just a general pattern of rain with some thunder possible. Either way, doesn’t look like tonight will impact the northern sides of okc. Then again, not sure how solid these models have been this spring so we’ll just have to see.

[C_M_25]

The models are all over the place for tonight’s weather. Looking at the dewpoint temps on the Mesonet, I would be shocked if we get any storms in the okc area. What are you guys thinking?

[Video Expert]

Currently observing Stratocumulus Radiatus clouds in the South Metro which tells me the airmass is relatively stable at this time. So any high end severe will most likely remain in the Texas Panhandle and far Western Oklahoma.

[Crisko]

The models are all over the place for tonight’s weather. Looking at the dewpoint temps on the Mesonet, I would be shocked if we get any storms in the okc area. What are you guys thinking?

I'm just an observer and not a meteorologist by any means, but can someone tell me why the dewpoint in Garden City, Kansas is only 56 and they are under a tornado watch? Does actual temperature of 81 play a bigger role than the dewpoint? Ours is 60 and hopefully you are right about us getting any.

[SEMIweather]

I'm just an observer and not a meteorologist by any means, but can someone tell me why the dewpoint in Garden City, Kansas is only 56 and they are under a tornado watch? Does actual temperature of 81 play a bigger role than the dewpoint? Ours is 60 and hopefully you are right about us getting any.

Garden City is much closer to the intersection of the surface low, dryline, and warm front which will likely provide enough forcing for at least isolated convection up there. As far as OKC is concerned, the dryline has retreated west compared to yesterday and this morning's storms also stabilized our atmosphere. Both of these factors mean that unlike yesterday, there is a very low chance of convective initiation in Oklahoma today, though we will likely see a complex of gradually weakening storms propagate into the state from the Texas Panhandle overnight..

[Bunty]

The models are all over the place for tonight’s weather. Looking at the dewpoint temps on the Mesonet, I would be shocked if we get any storms in the okc area. What are you guys thinking?

Stillwater is on the northern fringes of the system as of 3:45 am and might get a few hundreds of an inch of rain besides just the current sprinkles. If no more than just sprinkles, then the wind is sure blowing. The wind is a lot easier to count on.

[Anonymous.]

SPC has outlined 15% probability of severe storms for this coming Monday evening.

[yukong]

Some storms are trying to fire off SW of the metro.

[yukong]

And already falling apart.

[kukblue1]

The Monday Hype train has taken off and it's only Thursday. SMH

[unfundedrick]

The Monday Hype train has taken off and it's only Thursday. SMH

I'm not sure what hype you're seeing. Mike Morgan is on predicting about 20 to 30 percent chance of rain on Monday with nothing severe.

[kukblue1]

I'm not sure what hype you're seeing. Mike Morgan is on predicting about 20 to 30 percent chance of rain on Monday with nothing severe.

Look Harder. Based off one model run for a system 4 days out. I call that hype. https://x.com/MikeMorganKFOR/status/1786187236930699698

[kukblue1]

Friday morning looks like a Strong cap might be in place for most of Oklahoma on Monday SPC has upped the risk for Kansas area which I agree with as of now. I'm sure it will change but might have a Cap to deal with

[SEMIweather]

Monday looks like a very volatile environment but I suspect that much of the convection will end up occurring north of the KS/OK border. Certainly still worth keeping an eye on, especially because I do tend to favor the wave that marks the end of a lengthy active pattern. Which…after Monday, we finally look to quiet down for at least a few days. Between now and Monday, possibly a round or two of elevated storms, most likely around sunrise tomorrow and/or Sunday. But details are murky and the severe threat looks to be limited to marginal hail/wind in any case.

[unfundedrick]

i'm not sure what hype you're seeing. Mike morgan is on predicting about 20 to 30 percent chance of rain on monday with nothing severe.

nm

[unfundedrick]

Look Harder. Based off one model run for a system 4 days out. I call that hype. https://x.com/MikeMorganKFOR/status/1786187236930699698

That comment by Morgan was made after you made your comment. This was his 6:15PM forecast and note that he said 20 to 30 percent chance of rain and no mention of severe weather on Monday.


https://kfor.com/video/mike-morgans-...ecast/9660621/

[SEMIweather]

Complex of elevated storms is looking to make a run towards at least the west Metro over the next hour or two. Marginally severe hail should be the main threat.

[SEMIweather]

Storms appear to be weakening but still a nonzero threat of marginally severe hail; highest from Tuttle up into Mustang and Yukon at the moment.

[SEMIweather]

Storms are now weakening more rapidly and the hail threat appears to be over.