October 2021- General Weather Discussion

[Anonymous.]

Chance for another round of rain/storm late tonight into early Saturday morning. Latest model runs show cluster coming out of NW TX into SW OK and weakening as it approaches C OK.

[BG918]

Good rains over most of the state. Wide swath of over an inch from SW to NE OK

[Anonymous.]

SPC outlining a 15% probability of severe weather for the area on this coming Sunday. General area is just west of I-35 and all points east. Very powerful storm will cross the southern plains. This will result in hot temperatures leading up to the storm, then cold air swinging in on the backside.

At this time it is still far away, but tornado and hail threats look present.




SIDENOTE:
SPC also already has 15% probabilities posted for Tuesday that same week. Both instances are relatively rare for October.

[LakeEffect]

Apple (watch/phone) weather shoots Friday's high all the way up to 97 (I know it's less than likely)... but still, it's interesting. NWS and Yahoo stick to 93, which is still hot.

[Pete]

The OU/Texas game is going to be a broiler.

[FighttheGoodFight]

Summer please leave us.

[Anonymous.]

Things are still looking spicy for Sunday night. Highest severe threat will be across E/SE OK with best chance for full storm evolutions. Slight variations in track and ejection pattern of the low will fluctuate timing and locations significantly.

[SEMIweather]

Midweek system looks even more dynamic than Sunday’s, IMO, but not sure if the timing is going to be favorable for a true high-end severe weather threat as it’s currently looking like an 11 p.m. Tuesday - 11 a.m. Wednesday sort of deal.

[Anonymous.]

Latest short-range models forecast for cluster of storms to approach C OK with hail as primary threat. The more extreme severe threats of large hail and tornados looks like it will mostly stay with isolated cell nature that is expected across SE OK later in the night.

[Bunty]

Oklahoma City tied its record high with 94 for Friday 10/8/21. So maybe we're still not done with having 90s for highs.

[SEMIweather]

We'll get our last 90 degree day of the year today, IMO. Tomorrow will top out in the 80's with increased cloud cover, and then I don't think we'll make it back to 90 after this series of systems moves through over the next week.

SPC has us in an Enhanced Risk tomorrow. Complex setup that will likely continue changing right up until the very last minute. My best guess right now would be semi-discrete supercells forming roughly along the I-44 corridor between 4-7 p.m. tomorrow, and then quickly congealing into a squall line and racing off to the ENE. Given the combination of moderate instability and high levels of wind shear, all severe hazards will be possible.

[PoliSciGuy]

Yeah the tail end Charlie of the line could produce, and QLCS spinups are not fun. Tuesday/Wednesday also looks interesting though a lot more of a conditional threat

[Bunty]

Reed Timmer on Facebook wrote, "This might be the biggest fall tornado setup in Oklahoma since October 4, 1998." The worst risk area is the southeast half of Oklahoma.

[Slimjim]

Jon slater @ Khorramshahr says otherwise tornado threat low but damaging wind and hail are high

[PoliSciGuy]

Norman weather office says tornado threat is medium as is the wind-driven hail threat. Looks like the metro is on the northern edge of the threat area. Things will kick off before sunset, so stay weather aware today folks: https://twitter.com/nwsnorman/status...659744257?s=21

[Anonymous.]

15% hatched area for tornadoes from basically I-44 and south. I would say the Norman area and eveything S and E in particular looks juicy.

We should see storms develop just to the SW of C OK and race ENE. Anything remaining more isolated and less clustered will have the best shot at large hail and tornado. Best guess is around 5-6pm for development.

[jn1780]

Better pick up those Halloween inflatables! We may see some flying Jack Skelingtons tonight!

[Pete]

I just want it to finally cool off.

We are being completely cheated out of fall, which is by far my favorite season.

[TheTravellers]

I just want it to finally cool off.

We are being completely cheated out of fall, which is by far my favorite season.

We keep waiting for the Shumard oak we got planted in the median a few years ago to show its colors, but so far it's just done the standard tree thing in OK for fall - change to yellow for a few days, then drop all its leaves, and I suspect this year will be the same.

[jn1780]

Main threat area shifted slightly north in the afternoon outlook. North metro now in moderate risk

[Anonymous.]

Yes ^. Low ejection track trending slightly more north.

[SEMIweather]

Next weekend should be some classic Fall weather. Today has honestly been pretty gorgeous so far as well, you'd never know we were less than six hours out from a potential tornado outbreak. Classic Oklahoma!!!!

[SEMIweather]

HRRR has been pretty consistent in showing storms moving through the Metro around 7-9 p.m. this evening. Definitely worthwhile to keep an eye on the radar as we get towards that timeframe, seems like the necessary ingredients will be in place for a potentially high-end threat.

[Anonymous.]

MD is out. Cumulus field is easily seen on vis satellite. Tornado watch will come in the next hour I am sure. Also flooding risk along i-44 into NE OK will be significant overnight.

I will say this is one of the “best” setups for severe weather in OK that I have seen in a long time, including spring setups. We have had substantial clearing and heating ahead of the action with dewpoints in the mid-60s. This is not something to brush off.

[John1744]

The chaser discord I'm part of is indicating the cold front is stalling slightly leading to storms being more discrete and slower to "line out" indicating we may have stronger initial spaced out storms.