Welcome to April! Let the warmth and rain roll in...
Welcome to April! Let the warmth and rain roll in...
Hoping for a good rain event from Sunday Evening through Tuesday Morning, as the second half of the month looks to be warmer and drier than average.
Edit: Should also mention that we’re looking more and more likely to get about a quarter to a half inch of rain tomorrow evening. Nothing major, but will take any drought relief we can get at the moment, especially as Western OK looks to benefit with this system as well.
20-30mph winds across all of W and C OK today - fire danger high.
SPC has outlined a Slight Risk from SW into C OK for this evening. Short-Range models suggest a cluster of storms could develop somewhere across W/SW OK and move east. Strong wind gusts will be the main threat from any storms that do develop.
Monday looks like similar setup, but focus will be further across the Red River where flash flood risk will be high with numerous thunderstorms. C OK may miss out on bulk of the precipitation.
The rain is over for the week, the south of I-40 gang won out with the rainfall.
Focus today through Friday will be on the fire danger for everyone who didn't get plentiful rain. S winds with warm temperatures today. Then Wednesday-Friday we will have complete wind shift with 20mph+ winds from the N. It looks like next windshift will be Saturday - which will lead to a very pleasant day.
Still a ways out but next week (4/11-15) looks unsettled across the state with severe weather a possibility mid-week. Potential for heavy rain as well which would be great for many areas still in drought (though things have improved).
SPC has a 15% outline for Central/Eastern Oklahoma for Monday. Moderate instability and isolated thunderstorms expected. Another 15% outlined area is for Eastern Oklahoma on Tuesday.
I have to wait a couple more day to see how much moisture return we end up getting before I get too excited. The last couple systems the models have unperformed in my view on how much moisture was expected to come in. We have been so dry and the next couple of days are going to be bone dry.
Still Early looks like Dry Line sets up Mon and Tue right along i-35
As of today, the area of emphasis is moving more east leaving OKC on the far western edges of the area. Dew Points look paltry on the extended outlook. Of course we're still a long ways out we can't rule really anything "in' or "out" at this point. One thing's for sure is the local hype machine is off the charts already yesterday with Damon Lane posting on FB in bold colored letters "clean out storm shelter" and Gary Lezak advertising a storm set up of historical proportions.
Last edited by MagzOK; 04-07-2022 at 02:02 PM. Reason: corrected "poultry" to "paltry". :)
This wind is becoming a problem. I don't ever remember 10-20 day stretches with 20 MPH winds in a row. It's exhausting.
Causing some big time fires out on the west side of the state, too. Average wind speeds peak around this time of year but even considering that, this month has still been fairly notable in that regard. Looks like we won’t have any real relief from the wind until next Thursday/Friday, either.
Wind is becoming my biggest gripe about Oklahoma these days. And I feel like that gripe extends into the plains as a whole. Ask people in the valley of Colorado how the wind has been lately. The wind from E CO and W KS down through the panhandles and into W/C OK is basically nonstop. The only thing that changes is the direction it comes from.
For OKC, we should see a small break tonight into Saturday as the shift from NW to W to SW takes place. Then Sunday begins our constant 20mph S wind that plagues our Springs here.
I love OKC and the climate in general, but the wind will make me move someday.
Got to finally look at some things for next week. Sunday looks like too much of a cap. Monday not enough moisture and the front is too far east or I should say dryline. Tuesday and this is all for the metro area Tuesday looks like the day that could get interesting. Moisture and dew points will be there but the cap is very strong in the morning will it break might be the big question. It's only Friday night things will change again but just my 2 cents.
50 miles heck 30 miles might make all the difference for the Metro on Tuesday. Is the Dryline along I-35 and it's far east metro event or is the Dryline along Hwy 81 that puts the metro in a big risk.
More than anything else at this point, I’m deeply concerned about the fire danger on Tuesday and Wednesday. Western OK is going to be an absolute tinderbox, and the winds will be roaring both days.
I’m going to echo what was said above about the wind. My son’s asthma has been very problematic this spring. I love Oklahoma, but this wind will be one of the few weather issues that push us away.
I want to add to this that I’m concerned about the possible shift east of our weather patterns. I’ll preface this by saying this is totally anecdotal/gut feeling, but it really does seem like our dry line set ups and overall weather patterns have shifted east. It seems like a solid trend over the past 5+ years. Maybe somebody can provide some solid data to refute this, but that is what it seems like to me.
It’s not just you.
https://theconversation.com/tornadoe...o-alley-178863
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