March 2023 - General Weather Discussion

[Anonymous.]

Next storm system coming through the Plains Thursday into Friday. Severe threat at this time looks to be across SE OK. Cold rain and wind for C parts of the state. Perhaps a quick burst of wrap-around snow.

[BG918]

Another wet system. Wish some of this could spread west - some parts of eastern OK have seen some of their highest February rain totals on record

[Anonymous.]

Latest forecast is taking a shift further SE.

[Anonymous.]

Just for fun, look at the forecast map compared to the current drought map. Just in October last year, a majority of Arkansas was in drought conditions just like Oklahoma. They have 100% recovered and are now in flood stages.

[BG918]

The good news is the storm track stays active over the next couple weeks and our wettest months are approaching so hopefully that drought continues to edge back west. I feel like parts of western OK and the Panhandle are always in some stage of drought.

[LakeEffect]

The morning (0700 CST) SPC update dropped the OKC metro out of the Marginal risk area. The SE half of the Tulsa metro is still in the Marginal risk area... Risk increases as you head south and east. Broken Bow/Idabel are in Moderate along with NE Texas, SW Arkansas, and NW Louisiana.

[kukblue1]

Cold air for the win again for the Metro. DFW on the other hand. OH NO

[kukblue1]

This is from the NWS: Severe thunderstorms with very large hail to the size of baseballs
or larger, significant thunderstorm gusts to 75 mph, and a couple of
strong tornadoes are likely from north Texas into the ArkLaTex this
afternoon through tonight.

From Norman This Morning: * HAZARDS...
Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force
Several tornadoes, a few intense
Scattered large hail, some baseball size
* SUMMARY...
A regional severe-thunderstorm outbreak appears likely from parts of central and north Texas, across southeastern Oklahoma and the Arklatex region, and portions of the lower Mississippi Valley. Severe thunderstorm gusts (some potentially over 70mph), large to very large hail, and several tornadoes (some strong) are all expected.

So when I post something like OH NO I'm not rooting for Severe Weather I'm just saying OH NO meaning it could be bad today in Texas. Please Prepare.

[kukblue1]

https://twitter.com/NWSFortWorth/sta...779025408?s=20 DFW area if anyone has friends or family there.

[kukblue1]

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Tarrant County in north central Texas...

* Until 630 PM CST.

* At 534 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm was located near White
Settlement, moving east at 40 mph.

THIS IS A DESTRUCTIVE STORM FOR Tarrant County including White
Settlement...Benbrook...and Fort Worth.

[kukblue1]

..A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM CST FOR NORTHERN
MCCURTAIN COUNTY...

At 622 PM CST, a large and extremely dangerous tornado was located 14
miles north of Broken Bow, or 30 miles northwest of De Queen, moving
northeast at 40 mph.

This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may
be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes
will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes,
businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction
is possible.

Wow. oh maybe I shouldn't say that.

[BG918]

Active storm track continues with storm systems coming through the state around 3/7-8, 3/9-11 and 3/17-18. The system next weekend may have enough cold air for snow in northern OK and into Kansas. Temperatures stay on the cool side all next week.

[chssooner]

Question is, will okc actually get any rain? We've missed out on material amounts of rain so many times recently, I'm about to give up.

[BG918]

Question is, will okc actually get any rain? We've missed out on material amounts of rain so many times recently, I'm about to give up.

Decent chances right now

The rainfall map over the past 60 days pretty much follows the typical rainfall patterns across OK with the far NW and the Panhandle unfortunately trending drier which is also where the drought is most severe. It's also why there are such stark landscape differences between eastern and western parts of the state. Parts of the Panhandle average less than 16" which is a desert climate while parts of SE OK around Broken Bow are nearly at tropical rainforest levels approaching 60"

[LakeEffect]

NWS forecasting some good rain this week...



Image posted by NWS at 6:02 am CST on Monday, March 6.

[BG918]

Sharp divide between the haves and have nots with this system

[LakeEffect]

Also, SPC bumped OKC metro into Marginal risk tomorrow, mainly for hail potential.

[Anonymous.]

Latest data pointing toward majority of the heavy rain being across S and SE OK.

[chssooner]

As per usual, OKC getting screwed.

[Brett]

Am I the only one to hear a siren this morning?

[TheTravellers]

Am I the only one to hear a siren this morning?

Nope, I heard it too, 7-8-ish, we're at 36th/May and it sounded south of us, close to 23rd maybe. And it was only one, weird.

[BG918]

EURO has the bulls eye for heaviest rainfall from Ardmore to DFW


GFS not as bullish but with higher totals across eastern OK into NWA

[Roger S]

EURO has the bulls eye for heaviest rainfall from Ardmore to DFW

Really hoping the Euro is correct for once... I've not had a full pond in 2 years and I'm still about 10' low.

[PaddyShack]

Nope, I heard it too, 7-8-ish, we're at 36th/May and it sounded south of us, close to 23rd maybe. And it was only one, weird.

I am out in Yukon and I heard a siren this morning as well, not an emergency vehicle siren.

[BG918]

Narrow band of 1"+ yesterday from just east of OKC through Tulsa. The same areas could pick up another 0.5-1" today before the storm moves out.

A more powerful system moves in around 3/17. Looks like a typical spring storm with severe weather across the Plains and snow on the backside.