Oklahoma Weather Discussion - November/December 2011

[Easy180]

I know I know...Accuweather has us with clear streets all the way thru New Years Eve

Loving it

[Uncle Slayton]

I know I know...Accuweather has us with clear streets all the way thru New Years Eve

Loving it

If it were negotiable, I'd trade you that if in exchange, we didn't see either the sun or a daytime temperature above 35 degrees until after April 1, with snow two or three days a week.

[venture]

Winter Storm Watch for far NW OK.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
434 AM CST SAT DEC 17 2011

OKZ004-005-009-010-014-171845-
/O.NEW.KOUN.WS.A.0003.111220T0000Z-111220T1800Z/
HARPER-WOODS-ELLIS-WOODWARD-ROGER MILLS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...ALVA...ARNETT...WOODWARD...
CHEYENNE
434 AM CST SAT DEC 17 2011

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.

* TIMING: ACCUMULATING SNOWS ARE EXPECTED TO COMMENCE MONDAY
EVENING...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW FALLING FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH
DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

* MAIN IMPACT: SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL ALSO BE EXPERIENCED. THIS
WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING
SNOW AND PRONOUNCED DRIFTING OF SNOW ACROSS AREA ROADWAYS.

* OTHER IMPACTS: THE STRONG NORTHERLY WIND WILL ALSO HELP PRODUCE
WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TUESDAY MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

KEEP UP WITH THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION...ESPECIALLY IF YOU
PLAN TO TRAVEL ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF OKLAHOMA.

[BG918]

Looks like a major winter storm brewing just to the north and west of the OKC and Tulsa metros with a cold rain everywhere else unless the storms shifts south.

Still looks like an Arctic blast will invade the country the week after Christmas. That could give the area a better chance of snow.

[venture]

GFS and NAM agree on snow totals, so this looks pretty reasonable to go with...

[ou48A]

Good news in that the area that is targeted usually likes snow

[venture]

Good news in that the area that is targeted usually likes snow

I'm not in that area and like snow. :-P Some people are just too grumpy this time of year for their own good. That is why they invented Arizona and Florida for people. LOL

[ou48A]

I'm not in that area and like snow. :-P Some people are just too grumpy this time of year for their own good. That is why they invented Arizona and Florida for people. LOL

As you probably know that area has been in a significant drought.
From living in that area I know that most welcome snow (even in a wet year for them) for the moisture content and also for ground cover that it gives to the winter wheat crop.
But the big drawback comes if there is much wind. On the flat wheat ground it doesn’t take very much snow to create very serious white out conditions, they can be deadly for those caught off guard......

[HewenttoJared]

Venture, what do you think of Jeff Masters? I do a lot of reading from climate papers but week to week weather prediction has just never been an interest of mine. I started reading some WU stuff today and realized that I really lack the weather knowledge background to evaluate the claims being made. Do you have an opinion of WU or of Jeff Masters in particular?

What about this article? http://www.wunderground.com/blog/Jef...?entrynum=2003

[ou48A]

Blizzard Warning
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
319 PM CST SUN DEC 18 2011

...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG NORTH WINDS TO IMPACT THE
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING...
http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigw...izzard+Warning

[venture]

Winter Storm seems on schedule. Heaviest snowfall seem restricted to the panhandles with the latest model runs. 18Z NAM runs accumulations of 6 inches or more from Guymon and back to the west. 3 the to 6 inches for the panhandle east of there. Getting into the main body of Oklahoma looks like 1 to 3 inches mainly Harper and Ellis counties. An additional dusting to one inch is possible in Alfalfa, Major, Dewey, and Roger Mills counties and back to the north and west. Highest snow total over a foot will be confined to near Black Mesa.

The 18Z GFS is a bit more widespread with the heavier snow, but I think might be underplaying things a bit. 6 to 10 inches for all of panhandle and Harper County. Then a tight gradient of 3 to 6 inches for about 30 mile wide swath to the SW of that area and then another 30 mile swath of 1 to 3 inches SW of that to include the Woodward area. Other areas of North Central Oklahoma back to the west may see an inch or less.

Based on this snowfall amounts, could see Harper County go to a Winter Storm Warning and then the remaining counties in the watch area go under a Snow Advisory or Winter Weather Advisory.

[ou48A]

Blizzard Warning
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS358 PM CST SUN DEC 18 2011

...BLIZZARD TO NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH
NOON TUESDAY...

.A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM EXTREME SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA TONIGHT...REACHING THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
REGION BY MONDAY. THIS STORM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
SNOW AND STRONG NORTH WINDS WITH NEAR NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS ACROSS
MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST...AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS.

[bluedogok]

It is supposed to start snowing here (Denver) around 7:00 AM tomorrow morning on its way to y'all down there. It was 61 today and I was driving around with the top down, kind of strange with snow still laying around in the shadows.

[BG918]

It is supposed to start snowing here (Denver) around 7:00 AM tomorrow morning on its way to y'all down there. It was 61 today and I was driving around with the top down, kind of strange with snow still laying around in the shadows.

That's Denver for you. Weather there changes even more dramatically than here which is saying something.

While the Panhandle gets a blizzard the rest of the state should pick up a lot of rainfall, anywhere from 1-3 inches widespread with the heaviest amounts in central and eastern OK. Really good news for the drought. More Arctic air on the way next week....

[ou48A]

The local storm chasers and TV folks should head out to the true high plains of Boise City or Guymon.... or some place out there that’s flat for this storm.

This is sounding much worse than anything we have ever had in central Oklahoma

[kevinpate]

This doesn't sound monsterous by panhandle standards. Haven't they seen 6+ inches 2-3 times fairly recently?

[ou48A]

This doesn't sound monsterous by panhandle standards. Haven't they seen 6+ inches 2-3 times fairly recently?

This NOAA site is currently predicting 12’’ to 16’’ for a good part of the panhandle.
But it will be the wind that will cause huge drifts that will be the biggest problem

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ama/


Having lived on the high plains for a number of years I know that this is the type of storm forecast that if it holds true would cause great problems…..
Trains will get stuck. There will likely be drifts to the eaves of most homes and up the bottom of power lines in a few places out in the country.There will likely be human death. Livestock usually die by drowning by the thousands along with decimating much of the local wildlife. Galloping power lines can knock out power for weeks. I have seen all of this^, personally.

A bad blizzard like this forecast would actually be a very destructive and costly event

[venture]

New NAM output is shove much of the snow further north into Kansas and SE CO. According to it, snowfall accumulation outside of the panhandle will be less than an inch. 3 to 6 inches east of Guymon with 6 to 12 inches west. TX Panhandle looks pretty tame snowfall wise. North of I-40 is where most of it will stay. NE Panhandle will see 2 to 4 inches with NW panhandle looking at 4 to 8 inches. Surface forecast winds are 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 40...so really borderline Blizzard Warning criteria.

[Dustin]

That is crazy!

[venture]

GFS is following the lower amounts. So we'll just have to see. I never really trust any of the watered down computer models TV stations have. They are crap normally 90% of the time.

[venture]

GFS is showing a pretty decent snow storm developing over Central TX and moving NE through the Southeastern US and up the coast. Seeing how the model trended pretty far south with the system coming through tomorrow/Tuesday, I wouldn't be shocked to see this get adjusted further north. If that happens, a White Christmas could actually happen. Don't bet on it yet though.

[OKCisOK4me]

Whats the over/under?

[venture]

Whats the over/under?

Wait until Thursday and ask again. :-P

[venture]

Mentioned the possibility before...and OUN did go with just Winter Weather Advisories for the NW counties expected to see accumulating snow. Totals pulled way back in the 1 to 3 inch range like the models were showing last night. The morning NAM run is showing even less now with 6" or more kept mainly to the far west panhandle.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
341 AM CST MON DEC 19 2011

OKZ004-005-009-010-014-191745-
/O.UPG.KOUN.WS.A.0003.111220T0000Z-111220T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KOUN.WW.Y.0008.111220T0000Z-111220T1800Z/
HARPER-WOODS-ELLIS-WOODWARD-ROGER MILLS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...ALVA...ARNETT...WOODWARD...
CHEYENNE
341 AM CST MON DEC 19 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
NOON CST TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN AND WEST CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
TUESDAY.

* TIMING: ACCUMULATING SNOWS ARE EXPECTED TO COMMENCE THIS EVENING
AND GRADUALLY END TUESDAY MORNING.

* MAIN IMPACT: SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE LIKELY
WITH SOME LOCATIONS POSSIBLY RECEIVING AROUND 4 INCHES.
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL ALSO BE EXPERIENCED. THIS
COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING
SNOW AND PRONOUNCED DRIFTING OF SNOW ACROSS AREA ROADWAYS IN
PARTS OF NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA.

* OTHER IMPACTS: THE STRONG NORTHERLY WIND WILL ALSO HELP PRODUCE
WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS TUESDAY
MORNING.

[Bunty]

Elsewhere in the state, so far, it's looking like the 1 to 3 inches of "drought busting" December's worth of rains that the TV weathermen were excitedly talking about last night aren't going to pan out.