Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - July & August 2011

[HewenttoJared]

Anyone see that weird cloud over Edmond around 8 am?

[bandnerd]

Anyone see that weird cloud over Edmond around 8 am?

You mean the really dark clouds? My sister called to ask if we were getting another storm (she's in far north OKC) around that time, because she'd lost power and didn't know. I told her I didn't know what she was talking about, because the sun was out here! Within a couple of minutes, the wind gusted up again, and a dark cloud moved over. It was really strange.

[Thunder]

I saw it, too. There was a large portion of very low and dark clouds that rolled through, but did not do anything.

[Bunty]

I'm going to side with Thunder on this on. Ignoring the impact that droughts vs hail/wind would have on utilities (both effect electrical systems, droughts can damage water pipes, etc.), just consider the size of the area of impact each of these have. A drought can effect entire parts of countries wiping out crops and water supplies which are both pretty essential to life. Hail and wind will damage and destroy property, but property and material items can be replaced (especially with insurance). And these storms effect relatively small areas.

I bet the people in Joplin would trade a year or two of extreme drought, rather than go through another tornado. Drought tends not to kill you or destroy your home.

[Bostonfan]

This is a cold-hearted statement.

Drought is more damaging than precious hail and winds.

Says the guy that wants an F5 tornado to drop everytime a storm pops up just for kicks.

[Thunder]

Says the guy that wants an F5 tornado to drop everytime a storm pops up just for kicks.

Not true at all. While its exciting, I wouldn't wish that on people. If one happens to go through a major city, I would rather have it to destroy old buildings to speed up the process of beautification.

[SoonerBeerMan]

I bet the people in Joplin would trade a year or two of extreme drought, rather than go through another tornado. Drought tends not to kill you or destroy your home.

And I bet the people of the Horn of Africa would argue that drought does kill you and destroy you property. Listen we can trade calamities all day long. The truth is, like Venture said, unless you're in San Diego, the desert, or the Artic living in an area where varying weather conditions converge you have to learn to live with what you get. If this type of drought, and heat, carries on and expands like it has been, you can bet there will be more people that die from heat then the Joplin tornado.

[ZYX2]

The damage up in Tulsa was definitely pretty bad today. Lots of trees down. Riverside Chevy suffered MAJOR damage out in west Tulsa. I saw a lot of fences blown over and shingles blown off rooftops. There was even a Walgreen's sign on 71st st bent over backwards. But the temps were awesome! Loved it.

Anyway, tomorrow is the first day of school so I'll have to be up early. Good night!

[venture]

New SPC Outlook...

Slight Risk for Northern 2/3rds of Oklahoma Thursday

...OK AND VICINITY EWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY AREA...
ONGOING CONVECTION FORECAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF OK/AR WILL COMPLICATE
THE FORECAST IN TERMS OF THE DETAILS OF EVOLUTION. IN GENERAL
HOWEVER...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN AFTERNOON CONVECTION NEAR AND N OF
THE SURFACE FRONT AS HEATING/DESTABILIZATION OCCURS AWAY FROM
LINGERING CLOUDS/CONVECTION.

DESPITE MODEST MID-LEVEL FLOW...ELY COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT SHOULD ENHANCE SHEAR SUFFICIENTLY TO
SUPPORT MULTICELL SEVERE STORMS. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT
RISK FOR HAIL/WIND ACROSS THIS CORRIDOR.

Slight Risk for nearly all of Oklahoma on Friday - Including an enhanced risk for North Central and Northeast Oklahoma

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1209 AM CDT THU AUG 11 2011

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTION OF THE CNTRL AND
SRN PLAINS THROUGH MID-LOWER MS VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...

VORT MAX NOW OVER WA STATE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE N-CNTRL PLAINS
AND MID-UPPER MS VALLEY REGION FRIDAY. QUASI-STATIONARY BAROCLINIC
ZONE WILL PERSIST FROM SERN STATES WNWWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY
AND OK/KS. COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ADVANCE
THROUGH THE NRN-CNTRL PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY DURING THE DAY.

...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN PLAINS AND MID-LOWER MS VALLEY AREAS...

RESERVOIR OF RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST IN VICINITY OF
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT NWD AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
BECOMES SELY EAST OF CNTRL HIGH PLAINS LEE TROUGH. WLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL MAINTAIN EML PLUME WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN POTENTIAL FOR
MODERATE-STRONG MLCAPE FROM NRN OK THROUGH CNTRL PLAINS AND
MID-LOWER MS VALLEY. PRIMARY COMPLICATING FACTOR CONTINUES TO BE
LIKELIHOOD ONGOING STORMS FRIDAY MORNING...AND INDICATIONS ARE THAT
STORMS MAY BE IN PROGRESS NORTH OF FRONT WITHIN ZONE OF ISENTROPIC
ASCENT ON NOSE OF SSWLY LLJ FROM ERN NEB THROUGH A PORTION OF ERN KS
AND MID MS VALLEY. DIABATIC WARMING SHOULD DESTABILIZE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER SOUTH OF THIS ACTIVITY...AND STORMS MAY INTENSIFY AND
REDEVELOP ALONG PRE-EXISTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND BAROCLINIC ZONE.
ADDITIONAL STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG SEWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
MID LEVEL JET ALONG BASE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN 35-45 KT
EFFECTIVE SHEAR OVER MUCH OF THIS AREA WITH POTENTIAL FOR BOWING
SEGMENTS AND SUPERCELLS AS WELL AS EVOLUTION INTO MCS CLUSTERS.
DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS THROUGH THE
EVENING.

..DIAL.. 08/11/2011

[venture]

Indications of storms developing now in NW OK, SC KS, and NW TX Panhandle. Also severe storms are developing on the TX/NM border. Could see some rumbles of thunder and rain towards daybreak (if not earlier) if trends continue.

[venture]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1940
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0315 AM CDT THU AUG 11 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...TX/OK PANHANDLES TO WESTERN OK/FAR SOUTHERN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 110815Z - 110945Z

INCREASING STORMS ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLES INTO THE BODY OF
OK/FAR SOUTHERN KS MAY POSE AT LEAST A MARGINAL/ISOLATED HAIL/WIND
THREAT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED
IN THE SHORT-TERM. HOWEVER...INCREASING DEVELOPMENTAL/ORGANIZATION
TRENDS...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY MARKED INCREASE IN WIND DAMAGE
POTENTIAL...COULD PROMPT A WATCH ISSUANCE.

WARM ADVECTION...TO THE NORTH OF A ROUGHLY WEST-EAST SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM THE TX SOUTH PLAINS TO NEAR THE RED RIVER
VICINITY OF TX/OK...HAS LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN STRONG/FEW SEVERE
TSTMS FROM FAR EASTERN NM AND TX/OK PANHANDLES EARLY IN THE
OVERNIGHT. MORE RECENTLY...ADDITIONAL MID-LEVEL/INCIPIENT TSTM
DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO EVIDENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OK PER IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY. WHILE MUCH OF THE REGION RESIDES ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES ALOFT...RELATIVELY STRONG
HIGH LEVEL FLOW IN CONJUNCTION WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL EASTERLIES
/NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY/ MAY CONTRIBUTE TO MCS-TYPE
ORGANIZATION AND FORWARD PROPAGATION/EVENTUAL ACCELERATION AS CELL
MERGERS CONTINUE TO OCCUR. EVEN WITH A RELATIVELY STABLE
NEAR-SURFACE LAYER...THIS COULD PROMOTE A SCENARIO CONDUCIVE FOR
ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WITHIN A STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT
ALOFT...WHILE OTHER/MORE DISCRETE STORMS GENERALLY TO THE EAST OF
THE EVOLVING MCS COULD ALSO POSE AT LEAST A PULSE-TYPE SEVERE HAIL
THREAT WITHIN THE WAA REGIME.

..GUYER.. 08/11/2011

[sacolton]

This looks like the storm we've been waiting for. It should dump plenty of rain.

[venture]

Strongest part of the MCS right now is definitely in Grady, McClain and soon to be Central/Southern Cleveland counties. Wind doesn't look extremely bad in any focused area, but expected a dumping a rain in a very short time.

[SoonerDave]

Man, a great, soaking rain here in MWC with the start of a lightning and thunder show....

[venture]

Bulletin - immediate broadcast requested
severe thunderstorm warning
national weather service norman ok
1014 am cdt thu aug 11 2011

the national weather service in norman has issued a

* severe thunderstorm warning for...
Southeastern cleveland county in central oklahoma...
Southeastern mcclain county in central oklahoma...
Southern pottawatomie county in central oklahoma...
Western pontotoc county in east central oklahoma...
Garvin county in southern oklahoma...
Northeastern murray county in southern oklahoma...

* until 1100 am cdt

* at 1015 am cdt...national weather service radar indicated severe
thunderstorms along a line extending from wayne to elmore city...
Moving east at 40 mph.

Hazards in the warning include...
Hail up to the size of quarters...
Wind gusts to 60 mph...
Frequent cloud to ground lightning...

[venture]

Man, a great, soaking rain here in MWC with the start of a lightning and thunder show....

It is helping. We have about 17 inches to go as of yesterday to get caught up on our rain deficit for the last 365 days.

[Thunder]

Average temps in the metro is in the high 60s. I don't see how we will go any higher than 70s. :-O

[venture]

Average temps in the metro is in the high 60s. I don't see how we will go any higher than 70s. :-O

If the rain and clouds hang around, this is about as far as we'll get at this point. However, where there is just a little sun coming in, temps are 10-20 degrees warmer.

[Thunder]

That is a lovely map. Hope there will be more waves later tonight...tomorrow...next day...on and on and on. Eventually, we'll need to buy snow shovels at this rate!

[sacolton]

Looks like more storms are forming to the west.

[venture]

Potential exists today for a higher end severe weather event in Oklahoma, most likely in Northern Central & Eastern Oklahoma.

Short term model guidance is suggesting two areas of storms today.
- One area will start to develop around 1PM in Southern Oklahoma. These appear to be more scattered storms in their organization and will gradually move north and northeast if they develop. This area should be well into Eastern Oklahoma before sun down.
- Second area, that will carry with it more concern, is forecast to start coming together around 3PM in Central Kansas back to the OK/TX panhandles. This appears that it will develop into a MCS and most South to Southeast into Oklahoma reaching the northern/western sections of the OKC metro area by 9-10 PM.

We'll see how any of this unfolds. This morning SPC outlook is below, next update from them will be in about an hour.

...CNTRL/SRN PLNS AND OZARKS INTO THE UPR MS VLY TODAY/TNGT...
SEVERAL AREAS OF SVR STORMS MAY EVOLVE THROUGH EARLY SAT ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC BOUNDARIES. THE GREATEST SVR
POTENTIAL SHOULD EVOLVE THIS AFTN OVER CNTRL/ERN KS S/SE INTO THE
OZARKS/NE OK AS SFC HEATING DESTABILIZES FAIRLY MOIST WARM SECTOR
BENEATH BROAD EML PLUME ON S SIDE OF AMPLIFYING UPR IMPULSE. THE
STORMS LIKELY WILL ARISE AS REINTENSIFICATION OF AND/OR WWD
REDEVELOPMENT OF LINGERING OVERNIGHT CONVECTION.

COMBINATION OF STRONG INSTABILITY /SBCAPE 3000-4000 J PER KG/ WITH
INCREASING /30 TO 40 KT/ WNW FLOW ON SRN FRINGE OF UPR IMPULSE
SHOULD FOSTER STORM ORGANIZATION/SUSTENANCE. IN ADDITION TO A FEW
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A SHORT LIVED
TORNADO OR TWO...THE ACTIVITY SHOULD ORGANIZE INTO FORWARD
PROPAGATING CLUSTERS AND BANDS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
INSTABILITY GRADIENT IN KS. THE STORMS SHOULD REACH THE OZARKS AND
PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN OK LATE THIS EVE OR EARLY SAT WITH SVR WIND AND
HAIL. PARTS OF THIS REGION MAY REQUIRE UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK
WHEN/IF IT BECOMES MORE APPARENT EXACTLY WHERE THE MOST STRONGEST
FORWARD-PROPAGATING LINE SEGMENTS MAY DEVELOP.

[SkyWestOKC]

Always the days that I am flying or that I wash my car we get storms......hopefully they won't impact my arrival. It should storm next Friday too, I'm flying that day also.

[Thunder]

Instead of having them Northern, bring them down to actual Central, thanks.

[venture]

Things starting to pop as predicted earlier...

First this is the MCS for KS and Northern OK - KS has a watch issued now.



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1957
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WRN KS INTO NW OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 121928Z - 122030Z

A WW LIKELY WILL BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

UPPER SUPPORT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS NOT CLEAR...BUT
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND WARM ADVECTION ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE TO
THE NORTHEAST AND EAST OF A THERMAL LOW OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS
APPEARS LIKELY TO PROVIDE THE FOCUS/SUPPORT FOR INCREASING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE
THAT THIS COULD OCCUR BY THE 20-22Z TIME FRAME...IN THE PRESENCE OF
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LARGE
CAPE OF 2000-3000+ J/KG. DESPITE RATHER MODEST DEEP LAYER WESTERLY
MEAN FLOW ON THE ORDER OF 20 KT OR SO...THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS
CONDUCIVE TO A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
LOCALLY STRONG AND DAMAGING SURFACE GUSTS. IT APPEARS THAT
SOUTHWARD SURGING COLD POOLS MAY SUPPORT PROPAGATION INTO NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA BY EARLY EVENING.

..KERR.. 08/12/2011

New MCD for Central & Southern OK



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1958
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0254 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL TX INTO W CNTRL OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 121954Z - 122130Z

TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN INCREASING
SEVERE THREAT THAT COULD REQUIRE A WW WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

DEEPENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING THE INITIATION OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...IS ONGOING ALONG AN APPARENT WEAK
LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE ZONE EAST OF JUNCTION TX INTO AREAS SOUTHWEST
OF OKLAHOMA CITY. THIS IS GENERALLY EAST OF A REMNANT MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE VORTEX THAT IS SLOWLY MIGRATING NORTHWARD TO THE WEST OF
ABILENE...THOUGH IT IS NOT CLEAR HOW MUCH INFLUENCE THIS FEATURE
WILL HAVE ON SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSIFICATION.
REGARDLESS...GIVEN WEAKENING INHIBITION IN THE PEAK AFTERNOON
HEATING...STORMS STILL APPEAR LIKELY TO INCREASE...ROOTED IN A
DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER /WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
100F/...SUPPORTIVE OF LOCALLY STRONG DOWNBURSTS.

..KERR.. 08/12/2011

[venture]

Ww 773 severe tstm ok 122020z - 130300z
axis..70 statute miles east and west of line..
20n pnc/ponca city ok/ - 20ssw adm/ardmore ok/ ..aviation coords.. 60nm e/w /50sse ict - 11s adm/ hail surface and aloft..2 inches. Wind gusts..80 knots.
Max tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27020.

Lat...lon 37009583 34029593 34029837 37009837

this is an approximation to the watch area. For a complete depiction of the watch see wous64 kwns for wou3.