January '10 Weather Discussion

[bandnerd]

I'm waiting until 8:00 am to decide if I'm going in to work or not.

I wish I had that choice. We're probably going to try and squeeze half a day in so we don't have to make it up later.

ETA: Looks like every school in the metro except mine is closed. Even McGuinness is closed. Now I know how my students fee!

[venture]

http://www.dps.state.ok.us/cgi-bin/weathermap.cgi

Road Conditions...should start to see West Central OK go down hill fast.

[Thunder]

Many flights are canceled after 8am.

[PennyQuilts]

I was telling my husband that I sure am glad I am not on pins and needles with kids en route the way I was during the Christmas Eve storm event. I'm staying home with my dogs. Hope the power holds...

Bandnerd, I can't believe they are planning to have school and send the kiddos home in the midst of it.

Ya'll be safe, out there.

[bandnerd]

I got the call right after I posted that!

[venture]

All areas North and west of I-44 now below freezing.

[oknacreous]

Diagnostics suggest the 32F temperature line will set up from Lawton to Purcell to south of Shawnee, with temperatures near 29-31F in most of OKC as the heavy precip gets going this morning. So roads will start to see ice build up on exposed surfaces 8-9am most parts of OKC area, then bridges getting bad around 10am, then the main roads slowly going downhill after that. With the wind, power lines could become a problem by afternoon.

Some indications the freezing line at the surface will come back north - maybe into Norman/Moore this evening, but the damage may be done by then.

[Thunder]

[venture]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0071
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0701 AM CST THU JAN 28 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS E-CENTRAL/NERN NM...TX PANHANDLE AND
SOUTH-PLAINS REGIONS...WRN-CENTRAL OK.

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 281301Z - 281800Z

EXTENSIVE AND GROWING PRECIP AREA ACROSS ERN NM...W TX AND SRN OK
FCST TO MOVE/EXPAND NWD AND NEWD THROUGH 18Z...RESULTING IN SNOW
RATES 1-2 INCH/HOUR FROM NEAR LVS-SRR LINE NEWD AND EWD ACROSS NRN
PANHANDLE THROUGH 18Z. MEANWHILE FREEZING RAIN ALREADY OBSERVED
INVOF AMA/CVS SHOULD TRANSITION TO AREA OF SLEET THAT EXPANDS IN
PROGRESSIVELY NARROWER ZONE EWD ACROSS PORTIONS WRN/CENTRAL OK NEAR
AND JUST NW OKC. MIXED ZONE OF BOTH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL
EXIST FOR MUCH OF REMAINDER MORNING ALONG CORRIDOR FROM E OF CVS
TOWARD CSM/OKC AREAS...WITH FREEZING RAIN BECOMING PREDOMINANT
PRECIP TYPE WITH SWD TO SWD-SHIFTING SFC FREEZING LINE.

PRECIP PLUME WILL BE ENHANCED BY STG LOW LEVEL WAA AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT REGIME ACCOMPANYING BOTH BROAD/35-45 KT SRN/WARM BRANCH OF
LLJ OVER SW TX...AND SIMILARLY STRONG BUT SOMEWHAT NARROWER NRN
BRANCH LLJ ACROSS SWRN OK...SRN PANHANDLE/NRN SOUTH-PLAINS REGION
AND E-CENTRAL NM. MID-UPPER WINDS WILL BE STRONGLY MERIDIONAL WITH
SOME ELY COMPONENT...NE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS EVIDENT IN
MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY EJECTING NEWD OVER SWRN NM. 12Z AMA RAOB
SHOWS ROUGHLY 2500 FT DEEP WARM NOSE ABOVE STABLE/POSTFRONTAL
BOUNDARY LAYER...SUPPORTING FREEZING RAIN AS OBSERVED...BUT SHOULD
COOL THROUGHOUT REMAINDER MORNING AS TRANSITION OCCURS THROUGH SLEET
TO SNOW. 12Z OUN SOUNDING...WITHOUT ANY ADVECTION OR DYNAMIC
COOLING -- WOULD EXPERIENCE WET-BULB CHANGE TO JUST ABOVE FREEZING.
HOWEVER...CONTINUED CAA AND DRY ADVECTION BENEATH OVERSPREADING
PRECIP PLUME WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL EFFECTS...
1. SFC FREEZING LINE WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE S ACROSS CENTRAL/SWRN
OK AND TX SOUTH-PLAINS REGION THROUGH 18Z...REACHING TO NEAR
ROW-FSI-OKM LINE.
2. EVAPORATIVE EFFECTS...TO SOME EXTENT AND IN A TOP-DOWN
FASHION...WILL BE OFFSET BY DOWNWARD-DIRECTED SENSIBLE HEAT FLUXES
FROM RELATIVELY WARM PRECIP FALLING INTO COLDER AIR. THIS WILL ACT
TO COMPACT ISOTHERMS AND COMPRESS LAYER OF STRONGEST STATIC
STABILITY VERTICALLY. MAIN UNCERTAINTY ATTM IS TO WHAT EXTENT THIS
WILL OCCUR...WHICH WILL AFFECT TRANSITION FROM FREEZING RAIN TO
SLEET IN AND NEAR AFOREMENTIONED TRANSITION ZONE.

..EDWARDS/JEWELL.. 01/28/2010

[Thunder]

Live Wire | Oklahoma Winter Storm Updates | Liveblog live blogging

Everyone, hop on there. Load of fun!!!

[PennyQuilts]

We are beginning to get some nasty wet crap out west of the airport. It was still dry at 6:10 (about an hour ago).

[Thunder]

We are beginning to get some nasty wet crap out west of the airport.

I didn't know you moved back to Oklahoma.

[PennyQuilts]

I didn't know you moved back to Oklahoma.

We were back about ten days before the LAST big winter event! Good times, baby! Thrilled to be home, let me tell ya. I love Oklahoma weather and am glad I won't miss another Oklahoma spring.

Ask me, again, when the power goes out. I meant to pick up a generator but didn't get around to it. Serve me right for not thinking ahead.

[Thunder]

LOL! I need to meet my adopted mother!

[PennyQuilts]

It is icing up out here. The van windshield is covered with ice and the fences are getting sheets. The plastic gutter extension is lightly encrusted.

[venture]

Same down here in Norman. Just peaked out side a bit and all the tree branches, table on the deck, etc...all have a nice coating of ice already.

[Thunder]

Icing everywhere on exposed surfaces here in Del City.

[Thunder]

Suggestion from a user on Live Blog.

When driving with the heat defroster for the windshield, drive with your visors down, it will force the heat back down and effectively maintain the heat on the windshield.

[venture]

12Z NAM is pretty much status quo. No indication of any change over before midnight tonight. Hopefully some colder air can work in and get this over to sleet at least.

[Bostonfan]

12Z NAM is pretty much status quo. No indication of any change over before midnight tonight. Hopefully some colder air can work in and get this over to sleet at least.

what do you think the chances of that are?

[venture]

Not very likely as of right now it seems.

[PennyQuilts]

It is COLD out there. I think the bottom just fell out here west of the airport. Wind has picked up and it is bitter.

[westsidesooner]

Raining pretty good now in Bethany...building up a glaze on trees and powerlines....I'm pretty sure we'll lose power today so if I don't get to chat with ya'll later everybody take care out there.

[PennyQuilts]

We are running the heater a little hotter to try to capture some, just in case. Off to take a hot shower while I am sure I can...

[oknacreous]

The 12Z NAM model output for OKC area is absolutely classic for significant freezing rain this afternoon and evening. Expect 3/4 to 1" ice and major impacts on the power grid and roads.

An interesting curveball in the 12Z NAM - it now develops a band of heavy snow right over the OKC-Tulsa corridor on the back side of the system midday to late afternoon tomorrow, with potentially 3-5" of snow. We'll see if this trend continues.