April 2024 - General Weather Discussion

[SEMIweather]

Would also note that the SPC issued a relatively rare Day 3 outlook upgrade about an hour ago (from Slight to Enhanced) but that the area they upgraded is well to the west of the Metro, which goes along with the general thinking that convection from this system should be in a weakening state as it moves into OKC.

[kukblue1]

Looking at just the GFS the Dryline is going to be around for a couple of weeks in the Texas panhandle. Western Oklahoma could be active for a few weeks. Saturday only question is do storms form in the morning limiting instability for the afternoon

[kukblue1]

Short ranges models are getting a little Spicy for Thursday for Texas Panhandle far Western Oklahoma Sw Kansas.

[BG918]

EURO forecasted rainfall through the weekend. It will be interesting to see where the bulls-eye for highest amounts ends up but 3-4” possible in some parts of C and E OK. Hopefully this verifies because we need it badly

[kukblue1]

And here comes the CAP for Thursday. At least the SPC said IF storm can remain discreet or form at all. That being said for the Metro might see a decent squall line move it about 3am Friday morning It's going to change check back again tomorrow evening.

[SoonerDave]

SPC has kept the 30% risk in western OK for tomorrow (Thursday), keeping central OK slight into Friday. They have also modified the Saturday forecast to include a 30% severe risk region for essentially the central third of the state, extending to south central Kansas.

[Anonymous.]

Storms coming toward C OK from the NW currently. Nothing serious at this time.

[SEMIweather]

Storm threat should be over until sunset. There may be another round overnight, but areas north and east of OKC will likely be favored. If we are impacted, main threat will once again be marginally severe hail.

Tomorrow is starting to look a lot like last Monday with convection-allowing models very ambivalent about dryline initiation across the Panhandles prior to sunset. I do think there is a better chance of overnight QLCS formation this time around, but it would likely not get to the Metro until well after midnight, so not expecting too much of a severe weather threat, although you can’t rule it out given the favorable dynamics.

Saturday continues to look concerning, particularly with this morning’s GFS ensembles slowing the arrival of the potent shortwave trough, which could limit early-day elevated convection if that trend continues. If we do avoid early-day convection on Saturday, all parameters seem to favor the potential for a significant, high-end severe weather event. Stay tuned.

[kukblue1]

Really need to keep an eye on Saturday however it's only Wednesday so things are going to change but Saturday looks pretty incredible for storms. Could be I'll say that again. COULD BE one of the best setups we've seen in a long time

[Bunty]

Like last time, I don't expect anything very strong in north central Oklahoma unless the sun can get through to cause highs to get well into the 80s. That is what it will take to have a better chance of getting through the cap, if it remains through the period.

Dry conditions are worst in the northern 1/3 of the state:

[kukblue1]

Like last time, I don't expect anything very strong in north central Oklahoma unless the sun can get through to cause highs to get well into the 80s. That is what it will take to have a better chance of getting through the cap, if it remains through the period.

Dry conditions are worst in the northern 1/3 of the state:

We could always use more rain. No cap or very little cap on Saturday. This time around that might be helpful as weak morning storms might work over the atmosphere before the wave comes in. IF BIG IF 3 DAYS OUT but If we have a small but breakable cap and no morning convection Saturday could be big.

[SoonerDave]

We could always use more rain. No cap or very little cap on Saturday. This time around that might be helpful as weak morning storms might work over the atmosphere before the wave comes in. IF BIG IF 3 DAYS OUT but If we have a small but breakable cap and no morning convection Saturday could be big.

Well, in all honesty, I hope it isn't "big." Would love another "bust" forecast b/c big storms often cause a lot of havoc...we shall see.

[BG918]

Like last time, I don't expect anything very strong in north central Oklahoma unless the sun can get through to cause highs to get well into the 80s. That is what it will take to have a better chance of getting through the cap, if it remains through the period.

Dry conditions are worst in the northern 1/3 of the state:

GFS and EURO have both been consistent in 3"+ totals with possible higher amounts for northern OK through the weekend

[kukblue1]

Well, in all honesty, I hope it isn't "big." Would love another "bust" forecast b/c big storms often cause a lot of havoc...we shall see.

And it very well could if we have a lot of morning convection. However all signs are pointing to a big event. Keep checking it will change 8 more times by Saturday

[Anonymous.]

SPC has upgraded SW and C OK to Enhanced Risk for storms coming out of NW TX late tonight. Wind and hail primary threat.

[SEMIweather]

First look at the convection-allowing models suggests that there will be a lot of elevated convection on Saturday Morning.

[kukblue1]

First look at the convection-allowing models suggests that there will be a lot of elevated convection on Saturday Morning.

Could still be interesting either way but morning storms will help keep instability down

[SEMIweather]

Sometimes with these complex multi-day convective setups, I like to make a table comparing the output of the different convection-allowing models. I am sharing that table here. Please note that this does not represent an endorsement of any of these solutions, it’s just meant to help make sense of the different potential outcomes.

As you can see, there is a high likelihood of OKC getting hit by a round of storms early tomorrow morning, with severe potential increasing as a majority of models show the QLCS remaining relatively robust even as it moves through the Metro shortly before the diurnal minimum.

Meanwhile, Saturday clearly has a lot of high-end potential, albeit with the final outcome still very much up in the air and likely dependent on the extent of early-day elevated convection and any corresponding cold pool, which could work to stabilize the atmosphere for an extended period of time and therefore put a ceiling on the extent and severity of any potential supercells which initiate around or shortly after the diurnal maximum.

Finally, this is just beyond the range of the convection-allowing models, but would also note that a lot of the traditional models are narrowing in on an extensive swath of thunderstorms that will likely train over the same areas for much of the overnight period on Saturday. Wherever this occurs, there will likely be an extended period of both severe weather and flash flooding. Currently, this seems most likely to occur just southeast of the OKC Metro, but we are certainly still within the margin of error for potential impacts.

[Anonymous.]

^ Very cool. Thanks for sharing.

Saturday is very complex. I think we could see severe storms hit OKC early in the day, then threat for supercells off cleared-out dryline occurring later that evening across SW - SC OK. There is also the possibility that instead of waves of development, we have warm sector supercells firing across all of C OK that afternoon into evening ahead of the dryline. Check out this rainfall map.

[kukblue1]

QCLS is more than likely tonight and the great chart above shows. Only one model saying storms stay south. Better question is QCLS tornadoes or just wind and hail? Maybe early in SW Oklahoma might get a tornado? Something to keep an eye on. It's not zero for the tornado threat also not very high either.

[SEMIweather]

I tend to think that all hazards will be in play tonight given the strength of most model solutions and the fact that there doesn’t appear to be any cap inhibiting surface-based convection on the forecast soundings. These overnight events make me nervous because they often aren’t that strong given the lack of surface heating, so the bust potential still seems fairly high. But given the dynamics in play, the worst-case scenario could be fairly high-end.

[PoliSciGuy]

Sometimes with these complex multi-day convective setups, I like to make a table comparing the output of the different convection-allowing models. I am sharing that table here. Please note that this does not represent an endorsement of any of these solutions, it’s just meant to help make sense of the different potential outcomes.

As you can see, there is a high likelihood of OKC getting hit by a round of storms early tomorrow morning, with severe potential increasing as a majority of models show the QLCS remaining relatively robust even as it moves through the Metro shortly before the diurnal minimum.

Meanwhile, Saturday clearly has a lot of high-end potential, albeit with the final outcome still very much up in the air and likely dependent on the extent of early-day elevated convection and any corresponding cold pool, which could work to stabilize the atmosphere for an extended period of time and therefore put a ceiling on the extent and severity of any potential supercells which initiate around or shortly after the diurnal maximum.

Finally, this is just beyond the range of the convection-allowing models, but would also note that a lot of the traditional models are narrowing in on an extensive swath of thunderstorms that will likely train over the same areas for much of the overnight period on Saturday. Wherever this occurs, there will likely be an extended period of both severe weather and flash flooding. Currently, this seems most likely to occur just southeast of the OKC Metro, but we are certainly still within the margin of error for potential impacts.

Great writeup, thank you. Sounds like the ceiling for Saturday is high but super conditional on early-day convection holding off. Or at least that seems to be the assessment of NWS Norman:



Meanwhile, Mike Morgan is already calling an MDT outlook for Saturday

https://x.com/mikemorgankfor/status/...104690025?s=46

[TheTravellers]

Great writeup, thank you. Sounds like the ceiling for Saturday is high but super conditional on early-day convection holding off. Or at least that seems to be the assessment of NWS Norman:



Meanwhile, Mike Morgan is already calling an MDT outlook for Saturday

https://x.com/mikemorgankfor/status/...104690025?s=46

Not weather-related, but Morgan needs to proofread, that is absolutely pathetic WRT to the way the English language is supposed to be written.

[BG918]

It looks like the storm is coming in a lot slower than originally forecasted? Very little activity across Oklahoma so far but Sunday chances have increased.

[soonerguru]

It looks like the storm is coming in a lot slower than originally forecasted? Very little activity across Oklahoma so far but Sunday chances have increased.

So are they lowering the threat from Saturday or just adding Sunday to the mix?