May 2024 - General Weather Discussion

[bison34]

June 2nd, Dang!!!

September 36th is looking intense, as well! Jkjk

[FighttheGoodFight]

I don't understand. If so many people don't like Mike Morgan and don't trust him, why are so may even listening to him?

Comedy

[soonerguru]

Some people - myself included - would rather their employees be home safe with their families than still on the road to wherever they live (which could be anywhere in a one-hour radius) when a dangerous storm hits. Some people have kids they must pick up or otherwise deal with after they leave work. Some folks serve other family members as caretakers. Some folks deal with anxiety. Some offices take hours to shut down once the decision is made.

I’d never be able to forgive myself if I stayed open just a bit longer to squeeze out a few more dollars and someone got hurt because of my decision. It’s one I am forced to make many times each year, and it costs me plenty to exercise care. But the potential cost for NOT doing it is much, much higher.

Sometimes people who have strong opinions about how other people choose to run their businesses should just…stay in their own lane.

This 100%. Ridiculous that we are even having to explain this.

[soonerguru]

I don't understand. If so many people don't like Mike Morgan and don't trust him, why are so many even listening to him?

I actually like Mike and think he gets a bad rap. He was actually dead-on with his predictions for both of our last two high-end tornado days. He's usually willing to stick his neck out on a forecast before the others join the consensus.

That being said, I watch Damon Lane and think the KOCO weather team is the best.

[Libbymin]

Footage of the Bartlesville tornado from the entrance of the Hampton Inn. Those knuckleheads are lucky they didn't get themselves killed around the 0:55 second mark.

https://twitter.com/IntelPointAlert/...7Ctwgr%5Etweet

[Bill Robertson]

I'm all for local meteorologists fore warning the public. And I accept that it's better to err on the side of safety. But on a personal note yesterday was very stressful and in my opinion unnecessarily. At least early in the day. My wife's office closed at 1pm. She sped home texting me that she was "shaking and having a panic attack". I talked her down and left work myself. When I got home she had taken a Xanax which she hadn't done in 4 years.
Keeping the public informed and warned is necessary. Panicking the public hours before something might happen is not necessary.
We have the science available now to follow weather and warn the public in time to take cover without freaking out all day.

[The]

If your wife freaked out at 1 pm yesterday over the weather, that’s on her, no? Could she not have gone outside and looked at the sky?

[jn1780]

I'm all for local meteorologists fore warning the public. And I accept that it's better to err on the side of safety. But on a personal note yesterday was very stressful and in my opinion unnecessarily. At least early in the day. My wife's office closed at 1pm. She sped home texting me that she was "shaking and having a panic attack". I talked her down and left work myself. When I got home she had taken a Xanax which she hadn't done in 4 years.
Keeping the public informed and warned is necessary. Panicking the public hours before something might happen is not necessary.
We have the science available now to follow weather and warn the public in time to take cover without freaking out all day.

Maybe the problem is that we do have the science? Maybe we were better off with blissful ignorance? No one is saying to have a panic attack when there isn't even a storm heading your direction. No one is also saying to watch the news coverage 24/7(I think most people have one streaming service these days). There are other ways to get warnings or if your old timer there is a good old fashion weather radio.

In this day and age, most of us have become information junkies. People would hunt that information down and proceed to "freak out".

[mugofbeer]

I'm sorry but even under the weather watches you had yesterday, if your office shuts down for thunderstorms that don't exist or are 100 miles away, that's absurd. I agree the media doesn't help by blaring out how OK is under a rarely issued level 15 ultra horrible tornado watch. I mean, they broadcast it nationally and even on local news in Denver! Let science be science but with weather apps, social media and TV/radio, send people home when there is a reason to.

[VeggieMeat]

While I trust the NWS with forecasting, I don't trust them with what is happening in realtime, especially given their reluctance to switch from 360s scans. That's where the local stations come in.

I feel like Oklahoma is lucky that some of our local stations had a bit of an arms race with their own radars. Not radar interpretation software - actual radar owned by the stations. I trust a TV-station-issued tornado warning in Oklahoma far more than I trust an NWS-issued tornado warning. Part of that is because I've seen the recent extreme misses of Joplin, Perryton, and Matador (and others) in the past year. We're lucky here that our NWS office is also the testbed for newer generations of weather radar, but there is still room for improvement across the system.

For some context, I grew up in far western Oklahoma. While I currently live in a suburb of OKC, I did spend much of my adult life in an area that was negatively affected by both the digital TV transition and the sellout of radio stations to the major networks. Over time, the radio stations became far less manned. One that was in our area had a person that would have all the OKC stations up as well as NEXRAD and tried to relay information as they could when there was severe weather, but eventually they became automated and now only carry the syndicated content. When the digital TV mandate kicked in, we lost reception out there. We might get a still image now and then if conditions aren't perfect, but usually it's nothing. It got even more unreliable as we got wind turbines in the LOS between us and the repeater towers.

For several years living out there, I was the designee to relay information. No sirens. Just an Allison House subscription, a good mobile data plan, and sitting on a hill several miles WSW (typically). The mobile data wasn't available at the house, even with repeater mounted on a 100ft tower.

While I haven't seen it here, I've seen it in other places. When the TV folks complain about 5G/4G limiting their chasers from reporting. It's the same sort of thing that cuts off rural Oklahomans. Most providers provide current generation and current generation minus 1. The problem is that 3g/4g/5g are all far more limited in range than previous generations of mobile connectivity, and it's generally not worth it to providers to provide upgraded or legacy coverage. Each generation has a more limited range than the previous. The reason the airlines have been telling you it's okay to turn off airplane mode in cruise is because you are generally out of ground tower range by that altitude.

Even in the last couple of years, I've appreciated the wall to wall coverage we've gotten once the storms have entered OKC DMA. There have been numerous times where I have been able to text family members about something heading their way according to 4/5/9 (I forget about Fox outside NASCAR, my apologies - I'm an older millennial) while they are unable to see it because of satellite degradation or simply outside of digital OTA range.

[fortpatches]

Not to change the topic too far, but does anyone have a good app for receiving Inclement weather alerts?

The Weather.com one seems hit or miss on whether it will actually provide the phone notification - I think the Nextdoor app is generally more reliable on getting the alerts. But I would like one that is more reliable.

I generally just check RadarScope if I know something bad is coming, but it doesn't do phone notifications.

[Will Dearborn]

Adults are responsible for the media they consume. Monday was a scary day - no reason to allow yourself to be bombarded by all sorts of bad or dubious actors, including local media personalities.

---

I don't know of any good free apps that provide push notifications. I just follow the NWS and local offices on Twitter and pay attention myself.

[PoliSciGuy]

I'm sorry but even under the weather watches you had yesterday, if your office shuts down for thunderstorms that don't exist or are 100 miles away, that's absurd. I agree the media doesn't help by blaring out how OK is under a rarely issued level 15 ultra horrible tornado watch. I mean, they broadcast it nationally and even on local news in Denver! Let science be science but with weather apps, social media and TV/radio, send people home when there is a reason to.

We had a PDS tornado watch issued at 2pm local and the first storms firing by 3pm. If you wait for the storms to form before sending people home, you end up with a lot of people on the roads when the worst of the weather hits (see Mike Morgan's infamous "drive south!!!!" comments during the El Reno tornado). Monday morning quarterbacking this, especially from out of state, is just lazy criticism. This was the first high risk in OK in 5 years and the data very much supported it. Having the public super aware of the weather for an afternoon and evening every half decade as the atmosphere warrants isn't a bad outcome at all.

[C_M_25]

I think what spooked the SPC and the NWS is that the models were showing a line of severe storms firing pretty far in front of the dry line. The HRRR was consistent with this all day. Thats why the early watches and closures came out so early. The problem with this is that this is the second time the high res models signaled firing of storms way in front of the dry line this spring, and those storms never materialized in either case. To me, that signals something is just off with the model. Something is missing or misunderstood in the math behind that model. I don’t claim to be smart enough to understand it. It could simply just be not enough information to solution the prediction properly or it could be something missing in the model. Either way, I hope the experts are studying some of this and can update the models to be a little more robust in the future.

[C_M_25]

Speaking of models…the GFS is showing hints of a pretty bad setup for severe weather on the 16th. Need to watch carefully. Right now, it looks like the dry line is slated to be just west of okc. I’m sure that will move around as we get closer though.

[jn1780]

I think what spooked the SPC and the NWS is that the models were showing a line of severe storms firing pretty far in front of the dry line. The HRRR was consistent with this all day. Thats why the early watches and closures came out so early. The problem with this is that this is the second time the high res models signaled firing of storms way in front of the dry line this spring, and those storms never materialized in either case. To me, that signals something is just off with the model. Something is missing or misunderstood in the math behind that model. I don’t claim to be smart enough to understand it. It could simply just be not enough information to solution the prediction properly or it could be something missing in the model. Either way, I hope the experts are studying some of this and can update the models to be a little more robust in the future.

Didn't it also kill these first storms off pretty quickly? I think SPC just didn't want to add confusion on having two flavors of tornado watches. Similar to the week prior. Really businesses and governments already made their decisions in their meeting with NWS earlier that morning. I don't think the models not showing early initiation at that point would have changed their decision. Only happens once every few years(hopefully) so no big deal.

[PoliSciGuy]

Didn't it also kill these first storms off pretty quickly? I think SPC just didn't want to add confusion on having two flavors of tornado watches. Similar to the week prior. Really businesses and governments already made their decisions in their meeting with NWS earlier that morning. I don't think the models showing early initiation at that point. Only happens once every few years(hopefully) so no big deal.

By SPC guidelines, *any* watch in a high risk area is by default a PDS watch. Also, we're a couple of days after the event with a lot of data to look at and meteorologists and weather weenies are still trying to figure out what exactly went "wrong". A good humbling reminder that despite all our new technology and models, we still have a long way to go in understanding severe weather.

[Anonymous.]

Yes, I mentioned the above discussion when it was happening in real-time if you go back in this thread. I expected the NWS to issue separate tornado watches, one for far W, then one for C OK. However, the HRRR spooked them into issuing a giant watch due to the possibility of cells developing ahead of the dryline. Obviously that only happened E of I-35, but those cells are some of the most dangerous (See Barnsdall).

The other instance that I pointed out a few pages back, the NWS was using verbiage in their MD to indicate storms over a certain area would be capable of strong, long-track tornados. But this was for development that had either just formed, or had not formed at all (yet).

I think in both cases, there was some premature wording used and watch issuance. I am not employed by the NWS, so definitely not an expert. But I would have waited for C OK initiation signs before blanketing it with the giant PDS watchbox. And I also would not have mentioned 'Strong tornadoes possible by 5-6pm" for an area that didn't even have a SVR warned storm.

[jn1780]

Yes, I mentioned the above discussion when it was happening in real-time if you go back in this thread. I expected the NWS to issue separate tornado watches, one for far W, then one for C OK. However, the HRRR spooked them into issuing a giant watch due to the possibility of cells developing ahead of the dryline. Obviously that only happened E of I-35, but those cells are some of the most dangerous (See Barnsdall).

The other instance that I pointed out a few pages back, the NWS was using verbiage in their MD to indicate storms over a certain area would be capable of strong, long-track tornados. But this was for development that had either just formed, or had not formed at all (yet).

I think in both cases, there was some premature wording used and watch issuance. I am not employed by the NWS, so definitely not an expert. But I would have waited for C OK initiation signs before blanketing it with the giant PDS watchbox. And I also would not have mentioned 'Strong tornadoes possible by 5-6pm" for an area that didn't even have a SVR warned storm.

It was for public awareness reasons and I think the approval and coordination process for watches takes a little more time. They had a balloon launch at 1 that told them the cap was a little stronger at that point in time than what models were showing. That data probably came too late for them to digest it.

[Bunty]

I'm sorry but even under the weather watches you had yesterday, if your office shuts down for thunderstorms that don't exist or are 100 miles away, that's absurd. I agree the media doesn't help by blaring out how OK is under a rarely issued level 15 ultra horrible tornado watch. I mean, they broadcast it nationally and even on local news in Denver! Let science be science but with weather apps, social media and TV/radio, send people home when there is a reason to.

The problem is there may not be storms anywhere at 2pm but they might be upon you at quitting time, 5 pm. Hopefully, most people would stay at work to wait for the storm to pass, rather than risk driving through it. Hail is probably a bigger risk than a tornado. But after it passes, there will likely be flash flooding in the streets. Better to be early and safe at home. If the whole workplace has to lock up at 5pm or shortly after, there may be no place to go to get safer.

[NikonNurse]

I think what spooked the SPC and the NWS is that the models were showing a line of severe storms firing pretty far in front of the dry line. The HRRR was consistent with this all day. Thats why the early watches and closures came out so early. The problem with this is that this is the second time the high res models signaled firing of storms way in front of the dry line this spring, and those storms never materialized in either case. To me, that signals something is just off with the model. Something is missing or misunderstood in the math behind that model. I don’t claim to be smart enough to understand it. It could simply just be not enough information to solution the prediction properly or it could be something missing in the model. Either way, I hope the experts are studying some of this and can update the models to be a little more robust in the future.

I'm pretty sure models aren't an exact science but close enough to where they can make probable assumptions. Variables change all day, every day, every minute that change outcomes....timing etc. Do you want to wait and see if the models are correct or do you want to be surprised with a tornado at your door with little to no pre warning. I dont understand people that are critics of this...…You aren't going to know exact time, exact whatever until it happens., (no one has that ability) and if it doesnt...so what? You were prepared for the worst. We've had a few too many monsters to sit on our hands and wait for them to show up.

[JoeMNeal]

I think what spooked the SPC and the NWS is that the models were showing a line of severe storms firing pretty far in front of the dry line. The HRRR was consistent with this all day. Thats why the early watches and closures came out so early. The problem with this is that this is the second time the high res models signaled firing of storms way in front of the dry line this spring, and those storms never materialized in either case. To me, that signals something is just off with the model. Something is missing or misunderstood in the math behind that model. I donÂ’t claim to be smart enough to understand it. It could simply just be not enough information to solution the prediction properly or it could be something missing in the model. Either way, I hope the experts are studying some of this and can update the models to be a little more robust in the future.

No model is ever going to meet the robustness that we are looking for because we are trying to predict nature that is always evolving. The best thing that the experts can continue to do is effectively and responsibly communicate risk. They can continue to give the public as much lead time as possible to be safe during these weather events. If it means I leave work at 3:30 instead of 5, so be it. I would much rather my work day end than be interrupted because there's a cell approaching the metro. The last thing we ever want to see is rush hour traffic with a tornado on the ground in the metro a la May 2013. I remember people abandoning cars on i35 to get to cover. NWS communicates risk in the best way that they can with the tools that they have. I want those methods to continue to evolve.

[kukblue1]

Speaking of models…the GFS is showing hints of a pretty bad setup for severe weather on the 16th. Need to watch carefully. Right now, it looks like the dry line is slated to be just west of okc. I’m sure that will move around as we get closer though.

Already mentioned it already been attacked.

[Libbymin]

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Jm27Yj...VHdpc3RlcnM%3D

New Twisters trailer.

[BDP]

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Jm27Yj...VHdpc3RlcnM%3D

New Twisters trailer.

Everyone at the rodeo ignored the PDS watch issued the day before.