2017 Oklahoma Commercial Aviation Discussion

[damonsmuz]

Alaska Airlines/Horizon is currently experiencing a significant pilot shortage which may account for the reason why new routes aren't being added. Colorado Springs is having service discontinued due to said reason (per press release)

[catch22]

Alaska Airlines/Horizon is currently experiencing a significant pilot shortage which may account for the reason why new routes aren't being added. Colorado Springs is having service discontinued due to said reason (per press release)

100% Alaska management's fault.

The pilot shortage has been building industry wide for years, their wholly owned company (Horizon) pays less than their other contract company (SkyWest). SkyWest used to operate COS, OKC, etc. Horizon side of the house is raising hell about SkyWest so they bring work over to horizon because it benefits them of keeping costs low. Now Horizon literally cannot staff the flying they begged for. Corporate is now racing to get more SkyWest flying back but at a higher cost. They cornered themselves in. They tried to cut costs and it has backfired to the point of having to cancel routes that are likely profitable (high LF, low cost).

[Snowman]

100% Alaska management's fault.

The pilot shortage has been building industry wide for years, their wholly owned company (Horizon) pays less than their other contract company (SkyWest). SkyWest used to operate COS, OKC, etc. Horizon side of the house is raising hell about SkyWest so they bring work over to horizon because it benefits them of keeping costs low. Now Horizon literally cannot staff the flying they begged for. Corporate is now racing to get more SkyWest flying back but at a higher cost. They cornered themselves in. They tried to cut costs and it has backfired to the point of having to cancel routes that are likely profitable (high LF, low cost).

It is wider than just their management, though it probably reflects what their management has been willing to spend on employee compensation. The average pay for regional pilots is just bad, couple that with a somewhat dubious response to how regional were overworking staff to jacked up the minimum flight hours a pilot can have from 250 to 1500. Who wants to go through that effort and pay for your own training to get pay below most entry level jobs.

[catch22]

It is wider than just their management, though it probably reflects what their management has been willing to spend on employee compensation. The average pay for regional pilots is just bad, couple that with a somewhat dubious response to how regional were overworking staff to jacked up the minimum flight hours a pilot can have from 250 to 1500. Who wants to go through that effort and pay for your own training to get pay below most entry level jobs.

SkyWest is the industry leader for regional flying. They have not been significantly impacted by the pilot shortage - they have brought their pay up, increased signing bonuses, allowed more open-time flying (day off overtime) and cut costs in other areas to make up for it. So the fact that Alaska was not willing to pay for increased SkyWest flying (in fact reduced) means they thought they could get away with a cheaper (in-house) contractor. The fact that they are now cancelling routes and scrambling to get more SkyWest capacity is a tell-tale sign of a management screw up.

The pilot shortage is killing the regionals which are late to the shortage: GoJet, Trans States, and Republic. SkyWest has kept their commitments to all major airlines without letting the pilot shortage hit them. They are under pressure but they are actually growing their flying while other regionals are barely keeping up with existing flying.

[d-usa]

SkyWest seems to be the proof that it's a management issue and not a regulation issue, as the other airlines are trying to get the FAA to roll back regulations to hire cheaper pilots.

[BG918]

More second tier cities are seeing trans-Atlantic service planned:
- Delta announced it will start Indianapolis-Paris CDG
- WOW Air announced it will start St Louis-Reykjavik
- British Airways announced it will start Nashville-London

Where OKC and TUL stand in the Top 25 airports currently unserved from Europe. Always impressed and surprised by how Omaha punches above its weight..

[LakeEffect]

More second tier cities are seeing trans-Atlantic service planned:
- Delta announced it will start Indianapolis-Paris CDG
- WOW Air announced it will start St Louis-Reykjavik
- British Airways announced it will start Nashville-London

Where OKC and TUL stand in the Top 25 airports currently unserved from Europe. Always impressed and surprised by how Omaha punches above its weight..

Quite a few large companies with international presence have HQs in Omaha, so that helps them. Most of the Metro areas of the top few underserved are huge, it's interesting they aren't served, but Providence, RI, gets service. Finally, I bet HNL gets service soon, now that 787s and A350s can actually make that distance.

[catch22]

OKC-SAN is loaded on frontier. Starts in April.

[BG918]

Quite a few large companies with international presence have HQs in Omaha, so that helps them. Most of the Metro areas of the top few underserved are huge, it's interesting they aren't served, but Providence, RI, gets service. Finally, I bet HNL gets service soon, now that 787s and A350s can actually make that distance.

I would think Kansas City and Columbus are likely next in line for service, maybe not British Airways but possibly WOW Air or Norwegian. Jacksonville and Memphis are fairly low-yielding markets though Jacksonville with its beaches and golf resorts could be a target for Norwegian as a holiday destination for Brit's. When Northwest had its Memphis hub they had daily nonstop service to Amsterdam, I knew some people that flew on it as a one stop from Tulsa in early 2000's: TUL-MEM-AMS. Now that Delta has de-hubbed MEM I don't see trans-Atlantic service returning, again maybe Norwegian at some point. San Antonio is too close to Austin which now has three European routes to LHR, LGW and FRA.

Besides maybe Honolulu (that would be a ridiculously long flight) I don't see any of the others picking up service anytime soon.

[Celebrator]

Norfolk is the biggest surprise for me as far as where it falls on the list. What drives that? Military?

[Snowman]

Norfolk is the biggest surprise for me as far as where it falls on the list. What drives that? Military?

Probably military and at kind of related naval contractors or sales teams are at least a notable percentage.

Plus from their location on the east coast, England and France are getting to be somewhat similar total travel time between getting early enough to catch the plane, the layover and a connecting flights than to LA or Seattle if going on vacation.

[HangryHippo]

Josh - can you please offer some insight as to why the airport’s garages, even the newer one, are so poorly designed? The layout is complete crap and they’re poorly done.

[damonsmuz]

Well this is weird. I went to book a non-stop flight to Salt Lake City on the 1st Saturday on 2018 and saw that DL is not offering any non-stop flights from OKC-SLC that day. They have 2 flights on the day before but none on Saturday.

[Swake]

Norfolk is the biggest surprise for me as far as where it falls on the list. What drives that? Military?

Norfolk's metro is 1.8 million, almost the same size as Kansas City. Much larger than people think.

[catch22]

Well this is weird. I went to book a non-stop flight to Salt Lake City on the 1st Saturday on 2018 and saw that DL is not offering any non-stop flights from OKC-SLC that day. They have 2 flights on the day before but none on Saturday.

Indeed strange, but the airlines, especially Delta, have been trimming excess capacity during the slow months. Occasionally we have days without LAX or SFO also. Delta is about 25% larger in the summer than it is the winter.

[Celebrator]

Norfolk's metro is 1.8 million, almost the same size as Kansas City. Much larger than people think.

Wow, did not think that. If someone asked me which was larger Richmond or Norfolk, I'd say Richmond. Comparing KC I would have thought there was about a 1 million more in KC! Interesting. I guess that Hampton Roads area is more dense than I thought.

[Swake]

Wow, did not think that. If someone asked me which was larger Richmond or Norfolk, I'd say Richmond. Comparing KC I would have thought there was about a 1 million more in KC! Interesting. I guess that Hampton Roads area is more dense than I thought.

Richmond is larger than Norfolk. But not larger than Norfolk, Newport News and Virginia Beach which are all one urban area.

[HOT ROD]

I was going to say this, Norfolk's metro includes several other large cities - including Virginia's largest in Virginia Beach (but the metro is still called Norfolk); roughly 300k larger than OKC metro.

[catch22]

UA OKC-EWR is dropped from jan to may.

[HangryHippo]

UA OKC-EWR is dropped from jan to may.

OKC needs a flight into JFK or LGA.

[catch22]

OKC needs a flight into JFK or LGA.

LGA was our best shot several years ago when AA and DL were giving NY some attention. Think the window has passed, for now.

[catch22]

Fairly trivial information, but FedEx is now running a Sunday BOI-OKC-MEM. It's a BOI-MEM flight the rest of the week, but likely to pick up extra weekend parcels leaving OKC on the way to MEM for Monday delivery.

[damonsmuz]

Wow. UA not serving EWR Jan-May? It used to be Feb,Mar and April. Now 2 additional months. I wonder if UA is trying to beef up IAD more . Any other cities seeing a reduction out of EWR early next year?

[catch22]

Wow. UA not serving EWR Jan-May? It used to be Feb,Mar and April. Now 2 additional months. I wonder if UA is trying to beef up IAD more . Any other cities seeing a reduction out of EWR early next year?

Sorry had dates wrong slightly. Suspended Jan 8-Apr22

[BG918]

You would think OKC-NYC would be a bigger market. At least the EWR flight is still seasonal, TUL was dropped completely. Yet both American and Delta have daily non-stops to LGA from XNA (I know Wal-Mart drives that but still..)