General Weather Discussion - January 2014

[venture]

Apologies to Anon for the confusion but I was mainly referring to local on-air mets who are already forecasting snowmageddon 6/9 days out.

Morgan was all in hype mode last. That's what I get for leaving the TV on for background noise.

[s00nr1]

GFS projected accumulated snowfall through next Wednesday morning:

[SoonerDave]

Morgan was all in hype mode last. That's what I get for leaving the TV on for background noise.

Yesterday just wasn't your day, was it, Ven?

[Anonymous.]

Apologies to Anon for the confusion but I was mainly referring to local on-air mets who are already forecasting snowmageddon 6/9 days out.

No apologies needed, but I misunderstood also. I did, in fact, think you were referring to the posts in this thread.

I have not checked out any of the local forecasts yet, so I was unaware they were in bread and milk warning 6 days out.

[bradh]

well that map sucks if you live in OKC and want snow

[OKCisOK4me]

I'm perfectly fine with that map..which will fluctuate 20 more times between now and Sunday.

[venture]

Thew new Euro this afternoon was pretty close to the GFS runs that made the change last nigh to keeping anything severely significant out of the Metro area - for the most part. We'll probably have another day of "stupid" on the models for Sunday and a couple more days for each next week before we get a good solid forecast.

[okcboomer]

Lol. This has bust written all over it.

[bluedogok]

We are supposed to get the largest amount of snow this season up here starting tonight. It might come through there.

City: 4-8" snow
Foothills: 6-12" snow
Mountains: 18-30" snow

[OKCisOK4me]

Lol. This has bust written all over it.

I'm chanting BUST, BUST, BUST, BUST, BUST, BUST!

[PennyQuilts]

I'm trying to schedule a trip to Chickasha, next week (yeah, I know, that isn't far) but I really don't want to be out in crappy weather if I can avoid it. Monday and Tuesday are out, so Wednesday or Thursday looking to be my best bet, right now?

[venture]

Weds/Thurs everything should be out or on the way out. I'll probably do another run down after the next Euro run.

[venture]

00Z NAM snow chances remain for Sunday. Mainly along/south of I-44. So with that, focus on Norman for amounts with this.

Dusting to half inch by 9AM.
9AM to Noon - add'l 1-2".
Noon to 3PM - 1-2"
3PM to 6PM - snow ending, maybe another inch.

So looks like worst case looks like 2-4" with maybe some 5+ amounts around the south Metro. Some areas of SW OK could see 6-8" or more based on this run.

Just a side thought but it almost has that feeling that Sunday is going to sneak in and be the bigger headline than the Tuesday storm. We've seen it before.

[Soonerman12]

Not to sure about the OKC area, but I seriously doubt it'll be a bust here in the Tulsa area.... Local Mets and the national weather service seem pretty confident, especially for Tuesdays storm. I'm pretty sure the storm hasn't even made landfall yet, right? Isn't it suppose to make land late tonight or tomorrow?

[Anonymous.]

This morning NAM moves Sunday's system is now further south, leaving C OK dry. Really only affecting the last 1-2 rows of counties along the border.

GFS is slightly more north than NAM, but still generally south of I-40 for anything meaningfull.



Tuesday's storm is still very volatile. Models are bouncing everywhere. Perhaps it will have a better idea by the time this first system flies through on Sunday

[Bunty]

Special Weather Statement From the National Weather Service
Updated: Fri Jan-31-14 04:38am CST
Effective: Fri Jan-31-14 04:38am CST
Expires: Fri Jan-31-14 05:00pm CST

Severity: Minor
Urgency: Expected
Certainty: Observed

Status: Actual
Type: Alert
Category: Met

Areas affected: Alfalfa; Atoka; Beckham; Blaine; Bryan; Caddo; Canadian; Carter; Cleveland; Coal; Comanche; Cotton; Custer; Dewey; Ellis; Garfield; Garvin; Grady; Grant; Greer; Harmon; Harper; Hughes; Jackson; Jefferson; Johnston; Kay; Kingfisher; Kiowa; Lincoln; Logan; Love; Major; Marshall; McClain; Murray; Noble; Oklahoma; Payne; Pontotoc; Pottawatomie; Roger Mills; Seminole; Stephens; Tillman; Was hita; Woods; Woodward

Message summary: ...several rounds of winter precipitation will be possible across the area through at least the middle of next week...
Multiple storm systems moving across the region will cause several rounds of winter precipitation for parts of oklahoma and western north texas. Round one will be tonight into saturday morning. Round number two will be saturday night into sunday. The third round of winter precipitation will likely occur monday into tuesday. The second and third rounds are expected to have a bigger impact on the area than the first wave of winter precipitation that is expected to begin tonight. Round one... Freezing rain and/or freezing drizzle will be possible across parts of northern and central oklahoma beginning tonight and continuing on saturday morning. A brief period of sleet and/or snow will also be possible across parts of far northern oklahoma... With a slight chance of rain in parts of southeast oklahoma. Overall... Amounts are expected to be light...

Trace to less than a tenth of inch... So no widespread significant impacts are expected. However... A few slick spots could develop on some area roadways tonight into saturday morning. Round two... This round of winter precipitation is expected to have a bigger impact... Mainly south of interstate 40... Across parts of central and southern oklahoma... And western north texas. A wintry mix along with rain will be possible with this storm system. Snow and/or sleet accumulations of one to three inches with locally higher amounts will be possible along with some light icing from freezing rain across parts of this area. This wintry mix could cause slick roadways in some areas. Round three...this round will quickly follow the second storm system with the next wave of winter precipitation possibly beginning as early as monday morning in parts of southwest oklahoma and western north texas. The precipitation will then spread north and east monday into tuesday. Rain and snow will be possible with this system... With the heaviest snow likely occuring across parts of northern and possibly central oklahoma. However...it is too early to tell more specifically where the heaviest and how much winter precipitation will occur... Slick travel could also be a problem with this storm system. So in review... Currently three rounds of winter precipitation are expected with the second and third rounds to have the most impact on the area. There are still uncertainties in the forecast... Especially for the second and third storm systems so please check back often and remain weather aware by listening to noaa weather radio...visiting our website... And following us on facebook and twitter.

[okcboomer]

I'm chanting BUST, BUST, BUST, BUST, BUST, BUST!

This bust will be fun to watch. 4 and 9 are hyping 3 major winter storms. one sunday, then Tuesday, then Friday. sutton is already making a big deal out of a dusting of snow for sunday. Payne, well, he's spazzing out as usual. And Morgan is well, being Morgan. My dog, I just don't get it. A dusting? Really? hell, we had more snow on the ground the other morning when we weren't supposed to get any.

[LocoAko]

If they really are hyping it (I haven't watched), there are going to be a lot of people rolling their eyes in OKC from Sunday through Wednesday if the GFS is on to anything.

[Anonymous.]

Latest runs showing even less snow now in S OK (for Sunday). Storm totals for the upper MS valley is also down with the current trends.

Storm #2 right now looks like it is going to dry slot most of main body of OK. Save for extreme N/NW OK.

Storm #3 for the next weekend looks the most doomsday it has out of all the runs, thus far.

[silvergrove]

For all you weather junkies out there, I'm sure you'll appreciate this comic:

https://xkcd.com/1324/

[okcboomer]

Latest runs showing even less snow now in S OK (for Sunday). Storm totals for the upper MS valley is also down with the current trends.

Storm #2 right now looks like it is going to dry slot most of main body of OK. Save for extreme N/NW OK.

Storm #3 for the next weekend looks the most doomsday it has out of all the runs, thus far.

Great news for #1 and #2! I'm sure the doomsday storm will be all hype. Here's to spring!

[venture]

Euro review for this afternoon's run...

Sunday
1-2" SE of a line from Wichita Falls-Lawton-Chickasha-Norman-Muskogee.
3 maybe 4" in an area around Ardmore to Ada to McAlester.

Tuesday AM
Total snow fall through Tuesday afternoon for the metro 2-4".
Some areas in North Central OK could see 4-6" or more.

Thursday/Friday
Snow most areas outside SE OK. 1-3" for the Metro.

[venture]

Winter Wx Advisory for tonight/tomorrow for NC OK.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
256 PM CST FRI JAN 31 2014


OKZ006>008-012-013-020-011500-
/O.NEW.KOUN.WW.Y.0003.140131T2056Z-140201T1500Z/
ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-GARFIELD-NOBLE-PAYNE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHEROKEE...MEDFORD...PONCA CITY...
ENID...PERRY...STILLWATER
256 PM CST FRI JAN 31 2014


...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY...


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...WHICH
IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY.


* TIMING: THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY MORNING


* MAIN IMPACT: AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
MAY LEAD TO A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE ON ROADS AND ELEVATED SURFACES


* OTHER IMPACTS: A LIGHT COATING OF ICE MAY LEAD TO SLICK SPOTS
ON ROADS...ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...


BE CAREFUL IF YOU HAVE TO TRAVEL. EVEN SMALL AMOUNTS OF ICE AND
SNOW CAN MAKE ROADS AND SIDEWALKS SLICK AND DANGEROUS.

[s00nr1]

Really impressed with the consistency the GFS is showing run-to-run for next weekend's storm.....and a very impressive, prolonged winter storm it would be.

[damonsmuz]

Really impressed with the consistency the GFS is showing run-to-run for next weekend's storm.....and a very impressive, prolonged winter storm it would be.

You don't hear that often... "impressed with the consistency the GFS for next weekend's storm"