Oklahoma Weather Discussion - February/March 2013

[catch22]

Slush is falling at WRWA.

[Anonymous.]

Looks like the change over to snow is happening pretty rapidly.. Finally wet-bulb effect kicking in.

MD out for all of W. C. OK for heavy snow rates @ 1"/hour.

[catch22]

Time to warm up the de-ice trucks....

*Sigh*

[venture]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0155
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0758 AM CST TUE FEB 12 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...TX PANHANDLE TO WESTERN/NORTH-CENTRAL OK

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 121358Z - 121800Z

SUMMARY...MODERATE/HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE TX PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN/NORTH-CENTRAL
OK THROUGH 18Z. SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD CONTINUE TO REACH 1 IN/HR
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER RATES POSSIBLE FOR
RELATIVELY SHORT DURATIONS.

DISCUSSION...IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN EAST-NORTHEAST ADVANCING UPPER
TROUGH OVER NM/APPROACHING FAR WEST TX EARLY THIS MORNING...DEEP
LAYER ASCENT VIA UPPER JET EXIT REGION/WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES TO
CONTRIBUTE TO AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS FAR NORTH TX/TX PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN/SOUTHERN OK. AS OF
13Z...ZERO/SUB-ZERO SURFACE WET BULB TEMPERATURES ARE EVIDENT ACROSS
THE MAJORITY OF THE TX PANHANDLE AND INTO NORTHWEST OK /AREAS NORTH
OF I-40/. THESE COLDER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO ROUGHLY COINCIDE
WITH AREAS THAT ARE ALONG AND NORTH-NORTHWEST OF A WEAK SURFACE
INVERTED TROUGH/ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE.

ALTHOUGH THE 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM NORMAN WAS INDICATIVE OF AN
ABOVE-FREEZING WET BULB PROFILE BELOW 850 MB...THE ONSET OF STRONGER
FORCING FOR ASCENT/HIGHER PRECIPITATION RATES AND LOW-LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO LEAD TO A GENERAL WEST TO EAST
TRANSITION OF RAIN TO SNOW INTO WEST-CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL OK
THROUGH MIDDAY. THIS ASIDE...SOME SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
PRECIPITATION ONSET AND/OR EXISTING CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL OK.

DEEP FORCING/SATURATION ASIDE...MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS /800-600
MB/...ALONG WITH WEAK UPRIGHT INSTABILITY AND/OR SLANTWISE
INSTABILITY...WILL LIKELY ENHANCE SNOWFALL WITH RATES OF 1+ IN/HR
POSSIBLE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE
ACROSS THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE INTO WEST-CENTRAL OK AND PERHAPS
NORTH-CENTRAL OK BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

..GUYER.. 02/12/2013

[Anonymous.]

Downtown OKC has switched to 80/20 snow/rain now.


Looks like a cold pocket has worked its way over the OKC Metro, sitting in 33-34 temps while areas north, east, and south are all closer to 40.


EDIT: Almost 100% snow now in downtown. ~9:15am

[venture]

Still all rain here in Norman. This thing is just right on the line from going all snow quickly though.

[SoonerDave]

Nice steady snow with BIG snowflakes now here in E OK County

[Anonymous.]

It could be snowing for a very long time today... It is still snowing back in New Mexico where the wrap around is located.

[Andrew4OU]

It could be snowing for a very long time today... It is still snowing back in New Mexico where the wrap around is located.

Wow, I've got huge, wet snow flakes outside my window in downtown right now!

[BoulderSooner]

tinker is about 90/10 snow with huge wet flakes ..

[catch22]

WRWA went back to light snow and mostly rain now.

[OkieHornet]

What effect will the soil temps have on any accumulating snowfall in the metro? Mesonet shows 4 inch bare soil temps in the mid 40s.

[venture]

What effect will the soil temps have on any accumulating snowfall in the metro? Mesonet shows 4 inch bare soil temps in the mid 40s.

Depends on how fast it falls. If it is around half an inch or less per hour, the ground temp can keep up for awhile. Any sudden bursts over that and it'll lose out. The ground temps will also keep cooling through the day so at some point it'll start sticking for good.

[OkieHornet]

This storm is riding a fine line, huh?

[venture]

This storm is riding a fine line, huh?

As expected...well at least by us. :-P

[OkieHornet]

How does it affect streets as opposed to grassy surfaces? Which holds warmer temps longer?

[Anonymous.]

Any reports out of amounts thus far in Amarillo and just north?

[venture]

Any reports out of amounts thus far in Amarillo and just north?

5-6" appears to be the norm out there. So far 2-3" in Western OK.

[catch22]

Now it's snowing hard at WRWA. Must've taken a breather earlier. No rain, all snow, very large flakes.

[venture]

It's interesting to see how Dual Pol is handling this. Obviously there is still room to go in tweaking the system. Though I wonder if heavy wet snow throws it off.

[SoonerDave]

This is the kind of snow where you wish you were at home, in a nice, cozy recliner near a big picture window, with a fresh mug of steaming hot cocoa or coffee, and could just enjoy watching it fall.

[venture]

We are finally going over to a heavy wet snow in Norman now. Interesting how the radar shows this as "hail", but at least we know what is in that area.

[Anonymous.]

5-6" appears to be the norm out there. So far 2-3" in Western OK.

Thanks, AMA still getting snow in the wrap around, this storm is moving nice and slow.



Looks like winds are picking up from the north in W OK.

[venture]

Looking at radar trends, wouldn't be shocked if this tapers off in about 4-6 hours before wrap around can make it. Precip still extends all the way back towards Childress, so still have to get through all that.

[SomeGuy]

It is snowing heavy here and it's starting to stick here