January '10 Weather Discussion

[westsidesooner]

Yeah. Cause the world needs more of these guys.

Now back to your regular programming (something you WON'T see for the next 48 hours!)

thats too funny. I wish Mike Morgan had said something like that when we got only 2" of snow. lol


Thunder, if you can you should invest in a small generator to keep your fish tanks (and whatever else) going. Some of the small ones aren't to expensive these days. We have a koi pond in the back yard, luckily they sleep most of the winter, or hibernate, or whatever it is they do. My main concern with them is getting bonked in the head by a falling tree limb, or the limb puncturing the liner.....that would really bite.

And he difference between a wall cloud and a shelf cloud can be decieveing to the untrained eye...sometimes even a semi-trained one. Wall clouds can produce tornadoes and are usually on the backside of a cumulonimbus cloud, shelf clouds are always located on the leading edge of a thunderstorm and don't usually produce tornadoes (though there have been gustnadoes in some.)

To compliment Buntys entry: Arcus cloud - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

[drum4no1]

You notice the weather guys are shot from the waist up. HA!!

Hiding the weather woodies

[venture]

I totally agree, ice is much worse. Just seems to me the storm is moving more north now and temps may not get as cold at the surface. Then you add the dry slot shutting rain off sooner. maybe I'm totally off.

It is moving a bit more to the north. I think the the southern extent of the ice I had on my last map is pretty good right now. I think SE OK is going to stay all rain. NAM and GFS at 18Z both have the precip getting shut off around 12 AM Friday. However, the opportunity is still there for well over a half inch of ice.

I would probably say if you were looking at the models yesterday or before, they were showing some liquid amounts in 2-3 inch range. That is gone. It is now more sensible in most locations. However, NAM and GFS disagree on how much of the heavier precip will be in Northern OK. NAM goes with more, GFS much less.

[sacolton]

Weathermen shouldn't get paid if their predictions are wrong.

[Thunder]

You notice the weather guys are shot from the waist up. HA!!

Hiding the weather woodies

^^^ Someone want to see so badly!

[drum4no1]

Ill pass, I spend 8 hours a day in the same building with a few of them. Thats enough for me.....

[drum4no1]

Morgans latest graphic seems to be narrowing the ice bands and snow and ice seems to be shifting north.

Although this will disrupt travel it seems to be lessening for the metro

[OKCisOK4me]

Honestly, I'm glad. I'd rather work tomorrow & not have an interruption of electricity...

[drum4no1]

Morgan saying Thursday am drive will be dry not rainy.

[venture]

Southwest Airlines - Winter Storm Advisory City (OKC)

Oklahoma City (OKC)
We have cancelled several flights to/from OKC on Thursday, January 28.

Before heading to the airport, please check Flight Status Information.

Customers holding reservations to/from OKC on Thursday, January 28, wanting to alter their travel plans may rebook in the original class of service or travel standby (within 14 days of their original date of travel between the original city pairs and in accordance with our accommodation procedures) without paying any additional charge.

Additionally, Customers holding reservations for a flight that is cancelled to/from OKC may request a refund for an unused ticket/travel itinerary.

Customers who purchased their itinerary via southwest.com are eligible to reschedule their travel plans online. All other ticketed Customers should call us toll free at 1-800-435-9792.

[venture]

00Z NAM has up to 1" of ice in Norman tomorrow evening...will update maps here a bit later.

[westsidesooner]

Temps now falling quickly in northern Oklahoma and the NWS is expecting it to reach freezing in the metro near 4am. Much diffeent than Mike Morgans "everything will be fine til 3pm" forecast. Any thoughts on the cold air getting here quicker than expected V? Or am I just reading to much into it. Will this change the forecasts again?

Oklahoma Mesonet

[Thunder]

Around 7:30, I went out for a smoke and saw the temp at 60 then 61. An hour later, I saw it go from 57 to 56. I have a feeling that it will change tonight for tomorrow and shift the bad stuff back south to us.

[Thunder]

[blangtang]

i just looked and the mesonet thing says Norman got 2.54 " on Dec 11, 2007. 1" or less this time seems like skittles.

I was thinking i should go park my car in one of the OU parking garages, that would be the lazy way to keep from scraping ice

the crazy channel 4 guy made it sound like the ice would be the worst north and west of OKC. he said norman and the east side of okc could expect 1/4" of ice.

be safe everyone!

[BrettL]

Temps now falling quickly in northern Oklahoma and the NWS is expecting it to reach freezing in the metro near 4am. Much diffeent than Mike Morgans "everything will be fine til 3pm" forecast. Any thoughts on the cold air getting here quicker than expected V? Or am I just reading to much into it. Will this change the forecasts again?

Oklahoma Mesonet

I've been watching this too. Already 40 in Guthrie at 11 pm... yikes.

0Z GFS looks nasty for OKC. It's still a bit colder than the NAM. We shall see...

[oknacreous]

Seems like the models are converging on a solution: the main freezing rain and significant icing in a swath from Lawton to Norman to Muskogee, and the main snow band from Woodward to Alva to Ponca City. In between would be the old wintry mix with plenty of sleet, more snow as you head north and more freezing rain/icing as you head south. Heaviest amounts west of I-35. So if you're looking for a foot of snow go to Arnett, Buffalo, or into the northern TX Panhandle. If you're looking for power outages and all that fun go to the south metro. In Norman, I hope I have power 24 hours from now.

Edit to add this disclaimer: I can rattle off a dozen winter storm cases where the models converged on the wrong solution 24 hours in advance. This is not set in stone by any stretch of the imagination.

[venture]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0069
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1222 AM CST THU JAN 28 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...TX PANHANDLE...NERN NM...SW OK...

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 280622Z - 281215Z

WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM ERN NM INTO WRN
OK THURSDAY MORNING. AN INITIAL THREAT OF FZRA WILL TRANSITION TO A
SLEET/SNOW THREAT ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE AND WRN OK...WHILE
PRIMARILY SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER NERN NM.

UPPER TROUGH LOCATED OVER SONORA MX AT 05Z WILL CONTINUE A SLOW
PROGRESSION EASTWARD. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...A SFC COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. USING 21Z
SREF/RUC/4KM WRF NMM COMPOSITE...THE SURFACE FREEZING LINE IS
EXPECTED TO BE APPROXIMATELY LOCATED FROM I-40 IN ERN NM ENEWD TO
NRN OK AT 09Z...AND FROM THE WRN S PLAINS ENEWD TO NEAR THE OKC
METRO AT 15Z. A WARM NOSE ALOFT AOA 0 DEG C /IN THE 800-700 MB
LAYER/ WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO ERODE AS ASCENT INCREASES IN RESPONSE
TO LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT.

FROZEN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE PREVALENT...MAINLY
IN THE NRN HALF OF THE TX PANHANDLE...BY 12Z AS PERSISTENT ADIABATIC
COOLING OCCURS IN THE 800-700 MB LAYER. EXPANDING BAND OF FREEZING
RAIN WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING S /MAINLY AFFECTING THE TX SOUTH PLAINS
AFTER 12Z/...WHILE A NARROW SW TO NE CORRIDOR OF SLEET IS EXPECTED
IN THE NRN S PLAINS AND THE SRN/ERN PANHANDLE...AND SNOW IN THE
NRN/WRN PANHANDLE. CONTINUED COOLING WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SNOW THREAT ACROSS MOST OF THE TX PANHANDLE AND ERN NM
BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS ERN NM OF 1 INCH PER
HOUR AND GREATER ARE EXPECTED. FZRA PRECIP RATES ACROSS THE TX
PANHANDLE AND SW OK WILL GENERALLY BE BETWEEN .05 TO .10 INCH PER
HR...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

..ROGERS/SMITH.. 01/28/2010

[sacolton]

4:00 a.m. and 28 degrees. Brrrrrr!!!

[Thunder]

We are either near freezing or already at it, the freezing rain will be here much sooner and the ice total had gone up. This will be catastrophic!

Home Depot and Lowes is having their emergency shipment of generators coming in today. Go early, immediately, before store opening, grab a box! No money? Get the store credit card.

[Thunder]

[sacolton]

I'm waiting until 8:00 am to decide if I'm going in to work or not.

[venture]

Freezing Rain event about to get under way. The moisture and colder air are starting to meet up.

[sacolton]

Didn't Mike Morgan say "dry roads" until 3pm? Hmmmm.

[drum4no1]

He said dry until 9 or 10 am