^^^ Correct.
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-03552-w
I have been cautiously optimistic that this delta wave would be the last big one as we haven’t seen much in the way of new variants that can put compete delta. There’s a lot still to learn here, but it looks like we may have seen our next big variant emerge. Why won’t this end??
You’re technically correct but this isn’t what’s happening here. South Africa doesn’t have access to vaccines like we do here. In fact, there were a lot in the medical community that didn’t think it was right that we pushed boosters when there are so many in the rest of the world that don’t have access to original vaccines. This is a disaster brewing that we’re all technically responsible for. Let’s just hope some of the early numbers coming out about this thing are based on incomplete data. Currently, this thing looks to have an Ro higher than measles, but it’s very likely that those numbers are based off statistical biasing…hopefully.
New variant: Omicron is has confirmed cases in Belgium, Britain, Germany, and China. This thing is everywhere already. Let’s hope vaccinations and natural immunity help tame the severity of this thing.
Perhaps it won’t be worse, perhaps….
https://apple.news/A3X8z8ECdQ2-MsX3JuQYgBA
We can hope—and that would be consistent with other variants—but keep in mind that you’d expect mild symptoms in that population at this particular time. The next two weeks will tell us everything we need to know about it’s ability to cause severe illness. I’m hearing growing confidence that a full vaccination regimen works well against omicron and that those who have been boosted are in especially good shape. Again, more data is need, but we can hope and stay vigilant.
The one silver lining of the recent variant and surge is that it finally motivated a bunch of people to get vaxxed.
I know a bunch of people who previously had a million excuses and then got the shots after the rhetoric about this not being a big deal was supplanted with cold reality. 54.8% of eligible Oklahomans are now fully vaccinated, which is still ridiculously low but represents good progress from where we were, especially considering most kids are now considered in the eligible pool.
I remember not that long ago that most people said they didn't know anyone who had become very sick or died. I doubt many can say that any longer.
I fit the group of the last paragraph. Even though my wife and I took it very seriously and became hermits in April 2020 for a year we still we both had it twice by December 2020. But fairly mild cases. With all that I didn't know personally of a hospitalization or death until January 2021. Now I know personally of numerous hospitalizations and I think 6 deaths. I believe it took so long to touch me personally because I don't socialize much. My wife and I have a tiny circle of friends.
I’ve fully recovered and rather quickly. Thankfully no one in my family died but my grandpa and father are still both pretty ill though not hospitalized and coming over it. I thought I was done not long after my last post here but again thankfully I recovered. My grandpa just got out of ER today. My dad said never in his life has he been this sick and he’s had some pretty bad health issues over the years. This thing isn’t a joke.
I won't be surprised if Bedlam is a super spreader. George's, which is a bar across the street from Eskimo Joe's, was packed wall to wall with people both before and after the game started. Their garage door on the front, a cool feature, was wide open and easy to see in. Didn't go in. Seeing anybody wearing a mask anywhere was a very rare sight.
Silver lining: If the garage door was wide open then that's one of the best things they could have done. The ventilation from those big garage doors really increase the air changes per hour and makes everyone safer. Also, *most* game activities tend to be outdoors from tailgating to the actual game, which helps a lot too.
Due to the holiday, the daily reporting is all messed up and therefore I can't do my regular week-over-week comparison.
Based on the information available, it looks like last week had about the same number of new cases as the week before, which was an uptick from the previous three weeks after the numbers had been in decline since late August.
I should be able to update the numbers as they play catch-up and I'll post them when available.
Based on today's report:
Hospitalizations are 479. That's up from a low of 386 on 11/9. That number has been rising since that time.
Same is true for ICU at 154. It was down to 126 on 11/9.
This is good news. I am concerned that people's vaccinations are lagging in their efficacy over time, and they have not gotten boosters, which seems to be ripe for this new variant to make its mark. Everyone in my family on both sides is boosted (except the toddlers), so I am fortunate in that regard.
I hear people say, "What good are the vaccines? People who are vaccinated are getting it." From a messaging standpoint, this new variant could harden that point of view a bit, which would render a lot of folks vulnerable.
The incessant focus on new cases instead of health outcomes is at least partially to explain. Cases rising is worth knowing, but it's even more important for people to recognize that vaccinated folks' health outcomes from these breakthrough cases are dramatically improved. And that's the primary purpose of the vaccines.
Week over week numbers:
New cases for the week ending Friday: 6,199. Last several weeks: 5,621; 5,869; 4,522; 4,231; 5,021; 7,085; 9,092.
Hospitalizations are 552; last several Fridays: 465; 449; 417; 423; 506; 627; 788.
ICU is 171; last several Fridays: 150; 148; 140; 143; 172; 206.
Big jump in new cases over the 3-day period: 4,338.
That's the biggest number in two months.
The 7-day average had dropped into the 600's; it's now 1,245.
Week over week numbers:
10,926 new cases this week. Last several weeks: 6,199; 5,621; 5,869; 4,522; 4,231; 5,021, 7,085.
71 additional reported deaths.
Hospitalizations are 616. Last several Fridays: 552; 465; 449; 417; 410; 506; 627.
ICU is 196. Last several Fridays: 171; 150; 148; 140; 143; 172; 168; 206.
3,003 new cases were reported today alone.
That is the largest single-day figure since August.
7-day average now 1,561, the highest since September.
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