University of Oklahoma Sports

[BoulderSooner]

I hate to say this, but there is a scenario where OU wins out and still doesn't make the CFP. Currently it is Georgia, Michigan, Ohio State, FSU, Washington and OU as 1-6. If UGA, Michigan/OSU, FSU and Washington win out, there would be a good argument that it is the top four and OU is left on the sideline.

UGA still has to beat Mizzou, Ole Miss and Tennessee (all ranked).
Michigan has to beat Penn State and Ohio State (ranked).
Ohio State just has to beat a ranked UM team (rest of the teams unranked).
FSU has no current ranked teams on their schedule.
Washington has to beat USC, Utah and Oregon State (all ranked).

OU currently has no ranked teams on their schedule remaining except for, presumably Texas in the Big 12 championship. The only argument to be made would be for OU over Florida State. If the UM OSU game is close, there would be an argument to keep one of those over OU as they are currently 2/3 in the country.

the next time OU loses a "tie breaker" for a championship spot will be the first time

[BDP]

I want nothing more than OU to win a national title, but I think Michigan would whoop OU’s ass right now.

But OU would have enough time to change their signs before they played them in a playoff.

[HangryHippo]

But OU would have enough time to change their signs before they played them in a playoff.

lol

[PhiAlpha]

I hate to say this, but there is a scenario where OU wins out and still doesn't make the CFP. Currently it is Georgia, Michigan, Ohio State, FSU, Washington and OU as 1-6. If UGA, Michigan/OSU, FSU and Washington win out, there would be a good argument that it is the top four and OU is left on the sideline.

UGA still has to beat Mizzou, Ole Miss and Tennessee (all ranked).
Michigan has to beat Penn State and Ohio State (ranked).
Ohio State just has to beat a ranked UM team (rest of the teams unranked).
FSU has no current ranked teams on their schedule.
Washington has to beat USC, Utah and Oregon State (all ranked).

OU currently has no ranked teams on their schedule remaining except for, presumably Texas in the Big 12 championship. The only argument to be made would be for OU over Florida State. If the UM OSU game is close, there would be an argument to keep one of those over OU as they are currently 2/3 in the country.

It's like clockwork. Everyone frets about this scenario mid-season and it has never happened. We haven't even had more than one situation in which a one loss conference champion was left out (and it was Baylor and TCU because the Big 12 didn't have a championship game).

- UGA has come on lately but has been extremely shaky at times and still will have to play the teams you mentioned plus likely an Alabama or LSU in the SEC Championship

- Washington almost lost to a 1-5 ASU team at home and Penix played horribly and will have to beat USC and Oregon on the road and Utah at home along with the PAC that will likely be a rematch with Oregon, Oregon St, USC or Utah. They also have to play Washington State which similar to Bedlam this year, may be the last of the series for awhile with a bonus motivational factor of Washington St being left behind in the PAC 12...that game will not be easy.

- Michigan hasn't played anyone but has destroyed everyone they've played. They will have to play OSU and then Wisconsin or Iowa. Ohio State is in the same boat. I think the winner of OSU vs. Michigan has the easiest path in.

- FSU still has to play Miami, Florida and probably either Louisville, North Carolina or Duke in the Championship game.

- OU has the easiest remaining schedule but like Washington, almost lost Saturday. Plenty of opportunity to drop one with BYU and OSU both playing better. If OSU wins this weekend, they very well may be ranked in the Top 25 for Bedlam as they are basically ranked 31 in both the Coaches and AP polls. Also with Quinn Ewers going down for an undetermined amount of time, there is no guarantee they make the conference championship game but if KSU, ISU or OSU win out and get it (which for OSU would mean they beat OU), they will most likely be ranked.

All of that to say, there are plenty of opportunities for all of these teams to get beat between now and selection time. The bigger argument is going to be over which one loss teams get in, but again, that also hasn't ever been much of an issue by the end of the season.

[PhiAlpha]

but ou would have enough time to change their signs before they played them in a playoff.

lol

[PhiAlpha]

making the playoff is ALWAYS better then not making the playoff ..

True though being matched with USC would be a fun consolation prize lol. That said, based on what's going on out there...we would have to fall pretty far for that to happen.

[OKCRealtor]

True though being matched with USC would be a fun consolation prize lol. That said, based on what's going on out there...we would have to fall pretty far for that to happen.

I was kinda hoping we might get a crack at USC as well, but they're probably gonna lose 4-5 games and be in a garbage bowl

[kukblue1]

Said it once I'll say it again. Plenty of Football left but an OU loss is going to hurt them. All them other teams are playing ranked teams while OU is playing average at best teams. Let's be honest they are never going to leave a 1 loss SEC champion out NEVER NEVER NEVER. Highly unlikely they leave a one loss Big 10 champion out and it's really Highly unlikely that either Mich or Ohio St have a loss before they play. Pac 12 best conference in America can't see a one loss Pac 12 champion team being left out too good of a conference. That is going to leave FSU if they lose and OU if they lose. One of those two needs need left out and it will be close.

[PhiAlpha]

Said it once I'll say it again. Plenty of Football left but an OU loss is going to hurt them. All them other teams are playing ranked teams while OU is playing average at best teams. Let's be honest they are never going to leave a 1 loss SEC champion out NEVER NEVER NEVER. Highly unlikely they leave a one loss Big 10 champion out and it's really Highly unlikely that either Mich or Ohio St have a loss before they play. Pac 12 best conference in America can't see a one loss Pac 12 champion team being left out too good of a conference. That is going to leave FSU if they lose and OU if they lose. One of those two needs need left out and it will be close.

Of course it will hurt them. There's no debating that. There's also no debating that there has only been one year in the 9 year history of the playoff in which there were more than 4 conferences champions with 1 or fewer losses, which was during a year that the Big 12 didn't have a title game (though I'm not sure it would've mattered). Odds are that there will be a two loss conference champion and right now the odds have the Pac 12 as most likely candidate.

[Bill Robertson]

Said it once I'll say it again. Plenty of Football left but an OU loss is going to hurt them. All them other teams are playing ranked teams while OU is playing average at best teams. Let's be honest they are never going to leave a 1 loss SEC champion out NEVER NEVER NEVER. Highly unlikely they leave a one loss Big 10 champion out and it's really Highly unlikely that either Mich or Ohio St have a loss before they play. Pac 12 best conference in America can't see a one loss Pac 12 champion team being left out too good of a conference. That is going to leave FSU if they lose and OU if they lose. One of those two needs need left out and it will be close.

It's going to be hard for a PAC team to come out with only one loss. Washington, Oregon, Oregon St and Utah are the only possibilities and they all have at least two games against one of the others. Just for instance Ore has to play ORST and Utah. Wash has to play Utah and ORST. Etc. They're going to knock each other out. Could easily be a two loss PAC champion.

[kukblue1]

It's going to be hard for a PAC team to come out with only one loss. Washington, Oregon, Oregon St and Utah are the only possibilities and they all have at least two games against one of the others. Just for instance Ore has to play ORST and Utah. Wash has to play Utah and ORST. Etc. They're going to knock each other out. Could easily be a two loss PAC champion.

Pac 12 might just eat their own but that conference is so good. It might be hard to keep a two loss pac 12 team out. Didn't the Pac 12 start the season 17-1 and that one loss was cause two teams from the conference played one another. Compare that to the Big 12 that has no good out of conference wins other than Texas over Bama I don't see a 2 loss Pac 12 getting it but I could see the debate.

[PhiAlpha]

Pac 12 might just eat their own but that conference is so good. It might be hard to keep a two loss pac 12 team out. Didn't the Pac 12 start the season 17-1 and that one loss was cause two teams from the conference played one another. Compare that to the Big 12 that has no good out of conference wins other than Texas over Bama I don't see a 2 loss Pac 12 getting it but I could see the debate.

LOL dude just stop. That is so out of touch with reality. There has never been a two loss playoff team. If we're legitimately arguing about there being too many undefeated or one loss teams this season and someone getting left out...this is not going to be the year that happens.

When evaluating the Pac 12, keep this in mind (the committee will look at it as well if they need additional data points):

Oregon 38 @ Texas Tech 30 - Oregon is essentially tied for second in the Pac 12, Tech is 11th in the Big 12
Utah 20 @ Baylor 13 - Utah is essentially tied for second in the Pac 12, Baylor is 9th in the Big 12
TCU 43 @ CU 45 - TCU is 10th in the Big 12, CU is 8th in the Pac 12
OSU 27 @ ASU 15 - OSU is tied for 2nd in the BIg12, ASU is last in the Pac but was beating UW in Renton 7-6 late in the 4th Quarter until they threw a pick 6 on 4th down from UW's 20 yard line because they didn't have a kicker who could make a 30 yard field goal. They make a field goal there and UW would've had a tough time coming back based on how their offense was playing.

Bonus:
Tulsa 10 @ UW 43
Tulsa 17 vs OU 66

Double Bonus:
USC 20 @ ND 48 - USC is tied for 2nd in the Pac 12 and got smoked by a team that would be outside looking in to win the ACC this year (or even qualify for the championship game) if they were a full member.

Summary...They have some good non-conference wins, Florida, Wisconsin, among them...it's been a good conference so far this season but they are not the world beaters you're making them out to be.

[Bill Robertson]

Pac 12 might just eat their own but that conference is so good. It might be hard to keep a two loss pac 12 team out. Didn't the Pac 12 start the season 17-1 and that one loss was cause two teams from the conference played one another. Compare that to the Big 12 that has no good out of conference wins other than Texas over Bama I don't see a 2 loss Pac 12 getting it but I could see the debate.

No PAC 2 loss team has an ice cubes chance.

[Bill Robertson]

LOL dude just stop. That is so out of touch with reality. There has never been a two loss playoff team. If we're legitimately arguing about there being too many undefeated or one loss teams this season and someone getting left out...this is not going to be the year that happens.

When evaluating the Pac 12, keep this in mind (the committee will look at it as well if they need additional data points):

Oregon 38 @ Texas Tech 30 - Oregon is essentially tied for second in the Pac 12, Tech is 11th in the Big 12
Utah 20 @ Baylor 13 - Utah is essentially tied for second in the Pac 12, Baylor is 9th in the Big 12
OSU 27 @ ASU 15 - OSU is tied for 2nd in the BIg12, ASU is last in the Pac but was beating UW in Renton 7-6 until they threw a pick 6 on 4th down form UW's 20 because they didn't have a kicker who could make a 30 yard field goal
TCU 43 @ CU 45 - TCU is 10th in the Big 12, CU is 8th in the Pac 12

Bonus:
Tulsa 10 @ UW 43
Tulsa 17 vs OU 66

Double Bonus:
USC 20 @ ND 48 - USC is tied for 2nd in the Pac 12 and got smoked by a team that would be outside looking in to win the ACC this year (or even qualify for the championship game) if they were a full member.

Summary...They have some good non-conference wins, Florida, Wisconsin, among them...it's been a good conference so far this season but they are not the world beaters you're making them out to be.

Exactly. kukblue1, the PAC was talked about as the best conference back when USC was expected to go unbeaten and have a repeat Heisman winner. That ship has sailed. The PAC isn't all that. Just like you were still calling Alabama elite a couple weeks ago when obviously they're not this year. Live in the now.

[Laramie]

My observation, many posters on here didn't expect OU to be 6-0 following The Red River Rivalry.

Long gone are the days when you could compare teams based on their play against like opponents on the schedule. More has to do with player matchups and exploiting weaknesses in the team's defense before they can adjust.

Let's not forget those players who return at 90% or better following injury. Forsee Brent Venerables turning OU into a defensive juggernaut as he challenges players to extract their best.

[PhiAlpha]

My observation, many posters on here didn't expect OU to be 6-0 following The Red River Rivalry.

Long gone are the days when you could compare teams based on their play against like opponents on the schedule. More has to do with player matchups and exploiting weaknesses in the team's defense before they can adjust.

Let's not forget those players who return at 90% or better following injury. Forsee Brent Venerables turning OU into a defensive juggernaut as he challenges players to extract their best.

Uhhh..no those days are not gone...that's exactly what the playoff committee does among other variables...as do odds sites, some of the computer rankings, etc.

Common opponents are absolutely still a useful variable along with many others as has always been the case.

[kukblue1]

I know you all hate this but BOTTOM LINE there are 5 good conference only 4 teams can make it. If OU has a loss and everyone else has a loss OU is on the BOTTOM looking up. If 5 teams go undefeated not happening but if they did OU is at the bottom. OU wins out and another team has a loss OU is in. But if OU losses a game they are going to be need help like a Pac 12 team having 2 losses which is possible Ou conference champion with 1 loss or FSU conference champion with one loss. Who do you take? SEC Pac 12 Big 10 are locks.

Right now I have it SEC winner, Big 10 winner, Pac 12 with 1 loss and Texas winning Big 12 I have FSU out I think they will lose to someone. If it comes down to FSU 1 loss conference champion and OU 1 loss conference champ flip a coin.

[Bill Robertson]

I know you all hate this but BOTTOM LINE there are 5 good conference only 4 teams can make it. If OU has a loss and everyone else has a loss OU is on the BOTTOM looking up. If 5 teams go undefeated not happening but if they did OU is at the bottom. OU wins out and another team has a loss OU is in. But if OU losses a game they are going to be need help like a Pac 12 team having 2 losses which is possible Ou conference champion with 1 loss or FSU conference champion with one loss. Who do you take? SEC Pac 12 Big 10 are locks.

Right now I have it SEC winner, Big 10 winner, Pac 12 with 1 loss and Texas winning Big 12 I have FSU out I think they will lose to someone. If it comes down to FSU 1 loss conference champion and OU 1 loss conference champ flip a coin.

You have got to give up this PAC bandwagon stuff. Let's just say Washington makes it through with only 1 loss. Their wins are going to be against 2 and 3 loss PAC teams that dropped way down or out of the rankings.

[kukblue1]

You have got to give up this PAC bandwagon stuff. Let's just say Washington makes it through with only 1 loss. Their wins are going to be against 2 and 3 loss PAC teams that dropped way down or out of the rankings.

With all that in mind, here's a look at how our ESPN college football writers ranked their top four this week.

Andrea Adelson: 1. Georgia 2. Michigan 3. Ohio State 4. Florida State
Blake Baumgartner: 1. Georgia 2. Washington 3. Michigan 4. Ohio State
Kyle Bonagura: 1. Georgia 2. Michigan 3. Washington 4. Florida State
Bill Connelly: 1. Michigan 2. Georgia 3. Ohio State 4. Washington
Heather Dinich: 1. Michigan 2. Washington 3. Ohio State 4. Georgia
David Hale: 1. Michigan 2. Georgia 3. Florida State 4. Washington
Chris Low: 1. Michigan 2. Ohio State 3. Georgia 4. Washington
Harry Lyles Jr.: 1. Georgia 2. Michigan 3. Washington 4. Ohio State
Ryan McGee: 1. Georgia 2. Washington 3. Ohio State 4. Florida State
Adam Rittenberg: 1. Michigan 2. Georgia 3. Ohio State 4. Washington
Alex Scarborough: 1. Georgia 2. Michigan 3. Washington 4. Ohio State
Mark Schlabach: 1. Georgia 2. Washington 3. Michigan 4. Florida State
Paolo Uggetti: 1. Georgia 2. Michigan 3. Washington 4. Ohio State
Tom VanHaaren: 1. Georgia 2. Michigan 3. Washington 4. Ohio State
Dave Wilson: 1. Michigan 2. Georgia 3. Washington 4. Ohio State

NO OKLAHOMA? NO TEXAS?
As far a Pac 12 I don't see how you leave a 1 loss pac 12 champion out. Not when you have 4 ranked teams in the top 13. Say Washington lost to Utah. That won't be a bad loss. Oregon only has the lost to 5th ranked Washington. I see what your saying though they might knock each other out.but if it's Washington vs Oregon with 1 loss each in pac 12 title game.that team is in. unless there are 4 unbeaten.

[Bill Robertson]

With all that in mind, here's a look at how our ESPN college football writers ranked their top four this week.

Andrea Adelson: 1. Georgia 2. Michigan 3. Ohio State 4. Florida State
Blake Baumgartner: 1. Georgia 2. Washington 3. Michigan 4. Ohio State
Kyle Bonagura: 1. Georgia 2. Michigan 3. Washington 4. Florida State
Bill Connelly: 1. Michigan 2. Georgia 3. Ohio State 4. Washington
Heather Dinich: 1. Michigan 2. Washington 3. Ohio State 4. Georgia
David Hale: 1. Michigan 2. Georgia 3. Florida State 4. Washington
Chris Low: 1. Michigan 2. Ohio State 3. Georgia 4. Washington
Harry Lyles Jr.: 1. Georgia 2. Michigan 3. Washington 4. Ohio State
Ryan McGee: 1. Georgia 2. Washington 3. Ohio State 4. Florida State
Adam Rittenberg: 1. Michigan 2. Georgia 3. Ohio State 4. Washington
Alex Scarborough: 1. Georgia 2. Michigan 3. Washington 4. Ohio State
Mark Schlabach: 1. Georgia 2. Washington 3. Michigan 4. Florida State
Paolo Uggetti: 1. Georgia 2. Michigan 3. Washington 4. Ohio State
Tom VanHaaren: 1. Georgia 2. Michigan 3. Washington 4. Ohio State
Dave Wilson: 1. Michigan 2. Georgia 3. Washington 4. Ohio State

NO OKLAHOMA? NO TEXAS?
As far a Pac 12 I don't see how you leave a 1 loss pac 12 champion out. Not when you have 4 ranked teams in the top 13. Say Washington lost to Utah. That won't be a bad loss. Oregon only has the lost to 5th ranked Washington. I see what your saying though they might knock each other out.but if it's Washington vs Oregon with 1 loss each in pac 12 title game.that team is in. unless there are 4 unbeaten.

Pretty sure not a single one of those writers are on the committee.
Once the season is over the 2 and 3 loss PAC teams, which will be all but 1 at best, aren't going to be in the top 13. Maybe not the top 20. They're just going to be a bunch of 2 and 3 loss teams. Take off the rose colored PAC glasses.

[Laramie]

Glad they didn't rank Oklahoma. You don't want this team to get THE BIG EARLY HEAD.

[Bill Robertson]

This is how the ESPN/Allstate predictor currently has the playoff probabilities.
From the site:
For the past nine years, the Allstate Playoff Predictor has been painting a week-to-week picture of which teams have a realistic chance to be one of the four in the College Football Playoff, and overall, it has been pretty accurate, if we do say so ourselves. All nine champions were given at least a 65% chance to make the CFP before their championship season even began.

[Laramie]

Uhhh..no those days are not gone...that's exactly what the playoff committee does among other variables...as do odds sites, some of the computer rankings, etc.

Common opponents are absolutely still a useful variable along with many others as has always been the case.

Useful variable, yes. IMO it's more aligned with Las Vegas betting odds.

BTW have you (PhiAlpha) had an opportunity to relocate to Oklahoma City. Definitely want to welcome you to the OKC community.

[soonermike81]

making the playoff is ALWAYS better then not making the playoff ..

Agree 100%. Give us a shot!

[PhiAlpha]

With all that in mind, here's a look at how our ESPN college football writers ranked their top four this week.

Andrea Adelson: 1. Georgia 2. Michigan 3. Ohio State 4. Florida State
Blake Baumgartner: 1. Georgia 2. Washington 3. Michigan 4. Ohio State
Kyle Bonagura: 1. Georgia 2. Michigan 3. Washington 4. Florida State
Bill Connelly: 1. Michigan 2. Georgia 3. Ohio State 4. Washington
Heather Dinich: 1. Michigan 2. Washington 3. Ohio State 4. Georgia
David Hale: 1. Michigan 2. Georgia 3. Florida State 4. Washington
Chris Low: 1. Michigan 2. Ohio State 3. Georgia 4. Washington
Harry Lyles Jr.: 1. Georgia 2. Michigan 3. Washington 4. Ohio State
Ryan McGee: 1. Georgia 2. Washington 3. Ohio State 4. Florida State
Adam Rittenberg: 1. Michigan 2. Georgia 3. Ohio State 4. Washington
Alex Scarborough: 1. Georgia 2. Michigan 3. Washington 4. Ohio State
Mark Schlabach: 1. Georgia 2. Washington 3. Michigan 4. Florida State
Paolo Uggetti: 1. Georgia 2. Michigan 3. Washington 4. Ohio State
Tom VanHaaren: 1. Georgia 2. Michigan 3. Washington 4. Ohio State
Dave Wilson: 1. Michigan 2. Georgia 3. Washington 4. Ohio State

NO OKLAHOMA? NO TEXAS?
As far a Pac 12 I don't see how you leave a 1 loss pac 12 champion out. Not when you have 4 ranked teams in the top 13. Say Washington lost to Utah. That won't be a bad loss. Oregon only has the lost to 5th ranked Washington. I see what your saying though they might knock each other out.but if it's Washington vs Oregon with 1 loss each in pac 12 title game.that team is in. unless there are 4 unbeaten.

No Oklahoma and Texas because a lot of them have two teams from the big 10 that still have to play each other.

Which of those voters is on the playoff committee?

Again, all these arguments are dumb. We can bookmark this and come back in a month and a half…there will be a conference champion that either has 1 or 2 losses more than the other teams and doesn’t qualify. Likely will be the Pac 12 or Big 12, maybe both. I’m not really sure why you’re obsessed with eliminating everyone from the Big 12 in week 8 when OU and Texas both still have a better win on their resume than any other contender does right now and one of them is still undefeated.

Also I do think OU and Texas will both have another ranked win if both win out before they play in the championship. OSU and KSU have a good shot to jump into the top 25 if they win this weekend. If that happens, both teams would have 3 top 25 wins after the championship game.