2019-20 OKC Thunder

[sooner88]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/bryanto.../#667a02467c61

[king183]

Also, the 1st round draft picks we got for PG are likely to be at the back of the 1st round. The Clippers should be very good for the next few years. Two of the picks are from the Heat but that’s a likely place for Westbrook to end up so they could also be pretty good for the next few years. And Presti does not have a very good record drafting low level draft picks. Top ten, yes. 25th or so and lower, no!

Can you--or someone-- let me know which GM has "a very good record drafting low level draft picks"?

[PhiAlpha]

Here's my theory-

2016: Assistant coach Monty Williams wife dies in a car crash, children injured. Co-owner and founder Aubrey McClendon dies in a car crash. Conference Finals loss to the Warriors. KD Leaves for the Warriors. All this is in 6 months.
Somewhere around that time Clay Bennett is diagnosed with the life threatening cancer that no one will discuss.

This is where the team went all in to win a title before Bennett died. No expense spared. The window is only a couple years before the repeater tax puts the Thunder near $300 in payroll. The effort fails. April 24th 2019 Sam Presti starts talking to other GMs about trading Russ and/or PG, as well as anyone else on the roster. There is no action on Russ.

Russ will stay a few more years. He might retire here.

Except that the whole point of trading Harden in 2013 was so that they would avoid paying the luxury tax & repeater tax for 3 more years and go all in with Russ & KD in their primes on their next contracts in 2016. They wanted the flexibility to add pieces around them at that point which they had and were trying to do with Oladipo (and likely Al Horford had KD signed). They were planning to go all in between 2016 and 2022 the whole time, KD just blew it up and they ended up trying with PG instead with fewer assets and a Western conference dominated by the team that KD went to.

If KD had stayed, the teams from 2016 to now would've been really good. Starting 5 likely would've been Russ, Roberson, KD, Horford, and Adams with some combo of Oladipo, Sabonis, Kanter, (Grant or ilyasova), Abrines, Dion Waiters (likely had KD stayed), and Cam Payne coming off the bench. That's a championship caliber roster.

[Dob Hooligan]

It's very simple. They trade equal contracts back. Miami has plenty of them to make the deal work.

Yeah, we know it's that simple. Tell me what 3 (minimum) players making over 12 million a year are Miami gonna give up? Since, at that salary, they will be rotation players. Then who we gonna jettison to get the roster down to 15? Then how we gonna win games and sell tickets?

[PhiAlpha]

Also, the 1st round draft picks we got for PG are likely to be at the back of the 1st round. The Clippers should be very good for the next few years. Two of the picks are from the Heat but that’s a likely place for Westbrook to end up so they could also be pretty good for the next few years. And Presti does not have a very good record drafting low level draft picks. Top ten, yes. 25th or so and lower, no!

Who knows how long the PG & Kwahi deal will last? PG & Kawhi have had health issues on and off (Including PG right now) so there's a chance that it never fully materializes much like the Russ & PG paring didn't. I think the most likely scenario is that Presti uses all those picks and assets to trade up in the next 2 or 3 drafts depending on the talent.

[PhiAlpha]

Can you--or someone-- let me know which GM has "a very good record drafting low level draft picks"?

That's my question for everyone screaming to fire Presti. In addition, name one GM with a better draft track record who we could actually hire that would be a better fit to rebuild the team.

[Dob Hooligan]

Except that the whole point of trading Harden in 2013 was so that they would avoid paying the luxury tax & repeater tax for 3 more years and go all in with Russ & KD in their primes on their next contracts in 2016. They wanted the flexibility to add pieces around them at that point which they had and were trying to do with Oladipo (and likely Al Horford had KD signed). They were planning to go all in between 2016 and 2022 the whole time, KD just blew it up and they ended up trying with PG instead with fewer assets and a Western conference dominated by the team that KD went to.

If KD had stayed, the teams from 2016 to now would've been really good. Starting 5 likely would've been Russ, Roberson, KD, Horford, and Adams with some combo of Oladipo, Sabonis, Kanter, (Grant or ilyasova), Abrines, Dion Waiters (likely had KD stayed), and Cam Payne coming off the bench. That's a championship caliber roster.

I would not assume the reason for the Harden trade applied in 2016. The Thunder is always moving and adapting.

[PhiAlpha]

Yeah, we know it's that simple. Tell me what 3 (minimum) players making over 12 million a year are Miami gonna give up? Since, at that salary, they will be rotation players. Then who we gonna jettison to get the roster down to 15? Then how we gonna win games and sell tickets?

I don't think they are that worried about selling tickets next year. They've already sold the season tickets and understand that ticket sales may be lighter over the next few years for the greater good long term. Same thing happened between 2006-2009, they traded away the high salary assets to get under the cap and out of mediocrity, got 3 seasons worth of top 5 picks, and rebuilt the team. They knew the ticket sales have potential to take a dive for a few years during the rebuilding phase and have been prepared to take the hit...it's just coming a year or two earlier than they planned.

Being mediocre just to sell tickets doesn't make any sense anyway. They don't want to be the Knicks. Why would they want to be anything other than terrible for the next year or two and risk hurting our draft position?

[PhiAlpha]

I would not assume the reason for the Harden trade applied in 2016. The Thunder is always moving and adapting.

I'm not assuming anything. That is well known and 100% the reason they traded Harden in 2013 and didn't just resign him to go for it between 2013-2016. Ended up being a mistake since TV revenues increased the cap after that, injuries ruined each of their chances to win after 2013 and KD leaving ruined their chance to do it between 2016-2022. No doubt at all that they traded him to duck the cap, avoid the repeater tax and make themselves flexible to put the team in position to win long term during KD & Russ's primes.

[Dob Hooligan]

Man, this is a great thread! I was afraid it was gonna hibernate after nothing happening the last couple days.

I am straight up honest when I say I have never heard the reason for trading Harden in 2013 was anything more than avoiding the tax, and hoping good things came around.

What we know now is they have done business both ways, and they both blowed up.

[okatty]

This might should go in the NBA thread but I thought it was interesting that Kawhi's deal was just two years with a player option. He now matches PG. So after two years at Clips they can go as a package deal somewhere else or re-up. Kawhi could have taken a huge 4-5 year deal but passed on that.

[gopokes88]

This might should go in the NBA thread but I thought it was interesting that Kawhi's deal was just two years with a player option. He now matches PG. So after two years at Clips they can go as a package deal somewhere else or re-up. Kawhi could have taken a huge 4-5 year deal but passed on that.

Everyone screaming THOSE CLIPS PICKS WILL BE IN THE 20s

*checks notes* clips have a guaranteed 2 year window.

They might be in the 20s but as fast this league moves, there’s a chance they’re also high lottery.

[snark0leptic]

This might should go in the NBA thread but I thought it was interesting that Kawhi's deal was just two years with a player option. He now matches PG. So after two years at Clips they can go as a package deal somewhere else or re-up. Kawhi could have taken a huge 4-5 year deal but passed on that.

I believe whenever he has a chance to opt out after two years, he'll have 10 years NBA experience and can sign for a decent amount more as a max contract than if he had signed the max this off-season.

[dankrutka]

Yeah, we know it's that simple. Tell me what 3 (minimum) players making over 12 million a year are Miami gonna give up? Since, at that salary, they will be rotation players. Then who we gonna jettison to get the roster down to 15? Then how we gonna win games and sell tickets?

There are plenty of combinations and Miami has several bad contracts themselves that they would love to get rid of, which is why they make sense as a trade partner. They'd basically be trading bad contracts, but getting a marketable superstar back. You start with Goran Dragic at $19,217,900 (expiring & he might go to a third team) and Justise Winslow at $13,000 (good, young player) and you're already almost there at $32,217,900. There are a variety of options at this point. OKC could try to get some combination of rookie Tyler Herro ($3,640,200), Meyers Leonard ($11,286,517), or Kelly Olynyk ($11,667,886) and trade back some of their contracts (e.g., Patterson at $5 million or Roberson at $10 million) to make contracts work. Yes, Miami will have to give up a couple players/picks of value or OKC wouldn't do it. The dream Miami package includes Herro, Winslow, Adebayo, and/or picks.

[dankrutka]

Everyone screaming THOSE CLIPS PICKS WILL BE IN THE 20s

*checks notes* clips have a guaranteed 2 year window.

They might be in the 20s but as fast this league moves, there’s a chance they’re also high lottery.

Kawhi will be 35 and PG 36 when the Thunder get the first Clippers pick. That duo might already be done by the first pick much less the second and third ones. Those could be great picks. Also, people forget that these trades will allow OKC to turn their own picks into top picks.

[GISinOK]

Kawhi will be 35 and PG 36 when the Thunder get the first Clippers pick. That duo might already be done by the first pick much less the second and third ones. Those could be great picks. Also, people forget that these trades will allow OKC to turn their own picks into top picks.

Won't they be that age when we get the last pick?

[Thomas Vu]

I would not assume the reason for the Harden trade applied in 2016. The Thunder is always moving and adapting.

I would in the aspect that none of the thunder picks that they got for Harden ended up panning out relative to the picks they used to get KD/Russ/Harden.

[dankrutka]

Won't they be that age when we get the last pick?

Yeah, my bad. Disregard my last post. Don't know what I was thinking. But, those two may still not be on the team or they could have an injury or... overanalyzing these picks is pointless because if we've learned one thing: things in the NBA change.

[dankrutka]

I would in the aspect that none of the thunder picks that they got for Harden ended up panning out relative to the picks they used to get KD/Russ/Harden.

The Thunder drafted Steven Adams with one of the two Harden picks. That was by far the best asset they received and very good value. The problems with that trade (it should have never happened and was stupid; there's no defending it) on the return were that Jeremy Lamb didn't pan out (even though he's turned into a decent role player finally) as the Thunder must have projected him as more than what he was.

[dankrutka]

The Heat just signed their 2019 draft pick Tyler Herro, which means he can't be traded for 30 days. To me, he was the best asset Miami had. The best players they have available now are Winslow and Adebayo, and either a future pick or waiving protections on their pick we own. That's not too enticing anymore, but the reality is that a Westbrook trade may not be...

[gopokes88]

The Heat just signed their 2019 draft pick Tyler Herro, which means he can't be traded for 30 days. To me, he was the best asset Miami had. The best players they have available now are Winslow and Adebayo, and either a future pick or waiving protections on their pick we own. That's not too enticing anymore, but the reality is that a Westbrook trade may not be...

There isn’t a rush to trade Westbrook and it might be a tactic by Pat Riley.

Presti can fleece most GMs in a trade but Riley is def on his level.

[Jersey Boss]

The Heat just signed their 2019 draft pick Tyler Herro, which means he can't be traded for 30 days. To me, he was the best asset Miami had. The best players they have available now are Winslow and Adebayo, and either a future pick or waiving protections on their pick we own. That's not too enticing anymore, but the reality is that a Westbrook trade may not be...

30 days from now is still way before the season starts.

[chuck5815]

Yeah, we know it's that simple. Tell me what 3 (minimum) players making over 12 million a year are Miami gonna give up? Since, at that salary, they will be rotation players. Then who we gonna jettison to get the roster down to 15? Then how we gonna win games and sell tickets?

i think it's rather likely that any Westbrook trade, at this time, would involve 3 teams. a deal with the Heat and Hawks would probably work since the Hawks do have some cap space to work with, allowing them to absorb a Heat contract or two.

[Teo9969]

Everyone screaming THOSE CLIPS PICKS WILL BE IN THE 20s

*checks notes* clips have a guaranteed 2 year window.

They might be in the 20s but as fast this league moves, there’s a chance they’re also high lottery.

Certainly nothing is guaranteed. I also wondered if that was part of the reason for shipping Grant off for what I thought was relatively cheap. If you make the West strong for the next 3 or 4 years, you force the Clips to go all in while they have Kwahi and PG13. I think every team is learning from OKC's misfortune: You can't plan for the future anymore if you have a shot to win it all and there are a lot of teams in the running now that will absolutely put their franchises in the tank for the majority of the 20s as they mortgage the future trying to get a title.

You just hope the next time we're in a good position, we just go for it...if they're 23, they're 23. Really sucks the salary cap spike didn't hit one year earlier, but that was really the whole problem for the Thunder. If the TV deal had been made one-year earlier, they would have seen that Harden was going to be a dirt cheap contract the same way Golden State got to pay Klay Thompson dirt cheap.

Golden State benefitted the very most and OKC got screwed the most by father time.

[gopokes88]

I promise all of you Sam Presti learned a bunch of things from that run and if he gets lightening in a bottle he’ll hit the gas and seize the 3-4 year window. That was his mistake viewing it as a decade window. Players now view it as a 3-4 window with one team, and move onto the next team for another 3-4.