General Weather Discussion - January/February 2015

[Anonymous.]

Latest GFS trending the storm back to the north. Will have to watch the next few runs to see if it is anomaly or not.

[venture]

Red Flag Warning today for much of the state, including all of the metro. Extreme Fire Danger today.

[venture]

Bulletin - immediate broadcast requested
fire warning
agency name city state
relayed by national weather service norman ok
254 pm cst sun jan 18 2015

the following message is transmitted at the request of the
guthrie fire chief.

People between prairie grove to highway 105 and choctaw rd and
triple xxx have been requested to evacuate due to an approaching
wildfire. Please proceed to highway 105 and drive west or east to
evacuate.

[Anonymous.]

Don't sleep on this storm Wednesday/Thursday. Track is still very crucial.

NAM is saying a more easterly ejection of the low (greater chance for OK impact)
GFS is still keeping with the southern track, but has been bringing it back north for the last coouple days.

[Easy180]

Guessing rain event if it happens since the highs are upper 40's?

[venture]

00Z GFS has a mix of sorts for the Metro. A lot is just going to depend on where temps end up.

[venture]

12Z GFS pretty much the same as last night's run. Looks like maybe a tenth to a quarter inch of rain for the area and possibly a dusting of snow as well (depends on how wet things are).

The next system is shaping up for around the 1st of Feb. That one could bring a better shot at accumulating snow. How much for the metro area will depend on how fast the cold air gets in place.

[Anonymous.]

Per usual, C OK right on cusp of snow/rain.

Precip and snow gradient will be very extreme with this system. Can go from a handful of inches to basically nothing in just a couple miles.

Models are keeping things interesting, the manner in which the low ejects out of the Rockies and into NW TX is going to determine everything. If the low tracks further E/NE or turns east more quickly, the snow shield will be pulled over the main body of OK. (this is what happened on Christmas Eve in 2009)

Right now the money zone looks like TX PH sliding down into NW TX.

[LocoAko]

Just took a peek at the SREF plumes. Needless to say they definitely caught my attention... surface temperatures may be quite warm, though, so I'd have a hard time imagining much would stick in any case. The ARW members have a mean of nearly a foot of snow for Norman, while NMM has under an inch and NMB has nearly 4".

[Anonymous.]

New NAM tonight, doing exactly what I have been posting the last couple days. Ejecting the low more E/NE, dragging heavy snow banding directly over OK. A few areas in the southern half of OK near a foot of snow.

New GFS keeps the storm sagging south once it comes out of Rockies.


Now keep in mind, GFS has been EXTREMELY consistent on insisting that the low will drop through the TX PH and fizzle out in NW TX. NAM is just now latching onto the OK solution. However, both NAM and GFS have trended overall to bring the storm further north over the last 3-4 days. NAM being more extreme.



Cannot sleep on this storm, it may all be rain, it may be nothing, it may be a foot of snow.

[venture]

Oh this storm is going to be fun. Tagging on to what Anon said, the GFS (formerly the Parallel Version or new/updated version) has been pretty consistent with this thing. However, we always can see last minute jumps to another solution. So we just have to see if NAM is on to something or if it is out to lunch. About the only thing locked in is that Western OK will get some accumulating snow tonight/Thursday. I wanted to share a bit more of the upper air setup and why NAM is doing what it is. Well first off it is swinging a lot of precip up over us and really gets it cranking around 3AM Thursday here in Central OK. The upper air profile?



The lower couple thousand feet is pretty close to the freezing point, but it is favoring on the snow crystals not melting before getting to the surface. This does scream heavy/wet snow.

The GFS for the same location/time is substantially warmer, but also take note it isn't saturated with a dewpoint at or just below freezing...



Here is how the NAM spits out the precip...



The GFS really isn't that far off though in the higher precip amounts around this time frame...


So at the point we need to see how the next couple of models act in terms of handling precip types and amounts. If NAM stays consistent and the GFS moves anywhere near the same solution...the Norman WFO is almost going to be forced to put out some Winter Storm Watches for someone to cover their bases with this.

With that said, I've mentioned Feb 1st a few times already.

[venture]

Winter Storm Watches are out for portions of Western Oklahoma now. Morning model runs are much different. GFS going more liquid...NAM saying more snow. Snow totals are down a bit on NAM...roughly 2-5" over the Metro, which seems more reasonable if we do get into a wet snow situation.

[Anonymous.]

The consistency of GFS has been amazing. I can see why forecasters are siding with it.

3-5 inches on grass and elevated surfaces seems reasonable for the C and S parts of OK. Extreme S/SE OK could see a shot at heavy banding on wrap-around, but exact track is up in the air.

Definitely a messy storm. Any slight variations in track and/or temperatures will have major changes to forecast tonight into early tomorrow.

[venture]

The consistency of GFS has been amazing. I can see why forecasters are siding with it.

3-5 inches on grass and elevated surfaces seems reasonable for the C and S parts of OK. Extreme S/SE OK could see a shot at heavy banding on wrap-around, but exact track is up in the air.

Definitely a messy storm. Any slight variations in track and/or temperatures will have major changes to forecast tonight into early tomorrow.

Hopefully this is a sign that the new GFS is going to be better than the old.

16Z HRRR showing snow totals through 1AM over W OK may exceed 6 inches by that time. Expect a few of the counties to get upgraded to warnings this afternoon.

[Anonymous.]

Winter Weather Advisory for western half of OK (Winter Storm Warnings far west).




Bulletin states up to 4 inches possible in the area.

[Achilleslastand]

Will this eventually move eastward thru the evening/night?

[venture]

Will this eventually move eastward thru the evening/night?

If you question is whether eastern OK will see this eventually, not to the same level. Best chance for accumulating snow is Central and West - especially west These advisories are for late tonight and early tomorrow.

[OKCisOK4me]

So the good news is, it's gonna come down fast and heavy but the streets have been warm enough, long enough, that it won't be able to make the roads bad. I'm cool with that.

[Anonymous.]

RAP and NAM hinting at a heavier band setting up late tonight along I-40, which is where most of the snow for OKC would come from (if it comes). Depending on how quickly temps get down and the timing of the band, it could be mostly rain.

GFS refuses to believe it will snow anywhere in OK except for maybe extreme WC OK, (think Elk City and west).

[venture]

HRRR Snow forecast through 5AM...

[OKCisOK4me]

I'll take KOCO's 1/2" of snow around OKC and done by 8am.

[venture]

Updated HRRR through 10AM. Generally 2 inches or less for the metro area.

[Anonymous.]

This storm is so weird. It is almost like it is aware where I-40 lies. A heavy band of snow from TX into W OK, and then rain into OKC and points east.

Storm is stationary right now.

New NAM turns the band into snow through early morning and indicates up to 8 inches along areas south of OKC and back west.


Watching the low spin out in NM, maybe I am seeing with my snow-goggles on, but the low is moving more ENE than SE like it is supposed to be doing.


GFS has been spot on with this storm so far, (except maybe some of the amount in the far N/NW parts of TX PH.

[Anonymous.]

It's snowing along this band now, but melting back to rain as it enters lower levels of atmosphere, classic snow bright-banding on radar.

[Anonymous.]

Reports of 3 inch+ per hour rates coming out of this band in the TX PH. That is an insane amount of snow.