General Weather Discussion - May 2014

[Anonymous.]

CU still struggling. CAP is too strong down here still.

NC OK looks like it could go any minute. But still has not.

Storm firing just north of the border into KS along the same boundary.


As it sits right now, I would bet on no storms firing for main body of OK this eve.


EDIT: Just after posting, last scan shows storm going up SW of Ponca City. These will try and back build to the SW as the late afternoon progresses.

[PennyQuilts]

Well, maybe Pearly was just nervous about an earthquake or something. Around here, it could be anything.

[OKCMallen]

Astronomy is fascinating and it is a shame there isn't more education on it in grade schools.

At night during a full moon, I suggest you do the same since you can actually stare at it. Think about how this massive sphere is rotating at the same speed as Earth and is also orbiting Earth.

And if 7th grade science memory serves, the moon rotates at just the right speed in conjunction with its revolution around the earth to where we always see the SAME SIDE of the moon.

[woodyrr]

My brother got to his home in Dallas. Fortunately, there were only some small tree branches down. He has power, but there is evidence it was out for a period. Love Field is about 2 miles northwest and they reported a measured wind of 70 MPH at one time. The more significant damage appears to be in the community of Highland Park to the immediate east and northeast of his house.

I have been down there several times during tornado warnings and go absolutely crazy every time trying to get a handle on things as I am watching the TV coverage. I can't stand to watch the guys around here because of the way over the top exaggeration and I can't stand to watch the folks in DFW because they come across as more clueless than I am. I'm thankful for RadarScope and for the folks who post on here.

[ou48A]

Wow I have relatives in Highland Park....
There are tons of big old trees that could be a big hazard in that area.

[woodyrr]

Sadly, there are somewhat fewer as of today and at least one fewer BMW convertible.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[venture]

Nothing exciting out there tonight. Only notable thing are the bats woke up finally in Woods County.

[bchris02]

How likely is something to fire after sunset?

Last night's storms kind of surprised me. Even though in the grand scheme of things they weren't really that severe, I had thought our severe window would be wrapping up around 10pm at the very latest. I am glad we got them though. The rain really helped, though we still need more. Lake Hefner didn't seem to benefit as much as I thought it would from last night.

[Dustin]

Nothing exciting out there tonight. Only notable thing are the bats woke up finally in Woods County.

Those are bats? Holy crap

[venture]

Those are bats? Holy crap

Happens every year. We should see them soon in SW OK as well.

[soonerguru]

Those are bats? Holy crap

I took my family to see the bat viewing at the Selman Bat Cave a few years ago. One of the coolest things we've ever done. Highly recommend. Great setting and a wonderful feeling when they come out to feed, passing just a few feet above your head.

[venture]

Slight Risk today far SE OK.



Slight Risk Saturday Central to NE OK



..LOWER MO VALLEY TO CNTRL OK...
POLEWARD ADVECTION OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS REACHING THE LOWER/MIDDLE 60S.
THIS WILL OCCUR BENEATH A PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...YIELDING A MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH
MLCAPE AOA 2000 J/KG.

NEUTRAL TO SLIGHT MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES ARE ANTICIPATED TO OVERLIE
THE REGION DURING PEAK HEATING...REFLECTING THE DEARTH OF MID-LEVEL
FORCING FOR ASCENT. CONVERGENCE ALONG MOST OF THE DRYLINE APPEARS
WEAK WITH THE DRYLINE RETREATING WWD DURING THE EVENING.
HOWEVER...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND FRONT/DRYLINE
INTERSECTION MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED STORMS LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...40-50 KT EFFECTIVE
SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL /SOME OF WHICH
COULD BE SIGNIFICANT/ AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES /MAINLY IN MO/. GIVEN
THIS POTENTIAL...HAVE UPGRADED TO SLIGHT RISK...BUT OVERALL
COVERAGE/CONFIDENCE ON WHERE STORMS WILL FORM IS TOO LOW TO YET
WARRANT HIGHER INTENSITY PROBABILITIES.

[mblackwell]

Is Sunday/Monday setup still looking like it will be high-based?

[venture]

Sunday's Outlook...



DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT FRI MAY 09 2014

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID-MS VALLEY TO THE
SRN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE APPEARS PROBABLE BEGINNING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN
GREAT PLAINS.

...SYNOPSIS...
A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AMPLIFIED
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK FROM THE SRN GREAT BASIN TO THE SRN
ROCKIES. ATTENDANT MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX WILL BECOME CENTERED FROM THE
SRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE CNTRL PLAINS EARLY MON. AT THE SURFACE...A
LEE CYCLONE WILL DIURNALLY DEEPEN OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. THE
DRYLINE SHOULD MIX TOWARDS THE ERN TX PANHANDLE/WRN OK BORDER S/SWWD
ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN. GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON THE ACCELERATION OF A
S/SEWD-PROGRESSING COLD FRONT OVER THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS.

...MID-MS VALLEY TO SRN PLAINS...
PERVASIVE AND STRENGTHENING SWLYS AT 700 MB WILL RESULT IN AN
EXPANDING EML PLUME AND ATTENDANT CAPPING INVERSION EARLY SUN...WITH
INCREASINGLY RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE GIVEN STRONG POLEWARD
ADVECTION FROM THE WRN GULF. MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS
SHOULD BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM THE LOWER MO VALLEY SWD...YIELDING A
BROAD STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE AOA 2500 J/KG AHEAD OF
THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT. THE NRN EXTENT OF STRONG DESTABILIZATION
SHOULD BE DELIMITED BY EARLY SUN WAA-DRIVEN CONVECTION OVER PARTS OF
THE LOWER MO VALLEY. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE E/NEWD
THROUGH THE DAY WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE RISK...BUT MORE PROBABLE
SURFACE-BASED DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR WITH SWRN EXTENT WHERE
GREATER INSOLATION OCCURS. STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL
LIKELY YIELD INCREASINGLY NUMEROUS STORMS LATE AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING FROM ERN KS INTO SRN IA. LARGE HAIL /SOME SIGNIFICANT/ AND A
FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE INITIALLY. THE POTENTIAL FOR
UNDERCUTTING BY THE FRONT SHOULD YIELD CLUSTER AND EVENTUAL LINEAR
MODES WITH SEVERE HAIL/WIND HAZARDS PERSISTING INTO SUN NIGHT. A
LARGE MCS MAY ULTIMATELY EVOLVE GIVEN THE STRENGTHENING LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT DOWNSTREAM OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND BROADLY UNSTABLE WARM
SECTOR.

FARTHER S...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE WILL STRENGTHEN
/ESPECIALLY INVOF TRIPLE-POINT/ AND INTENSE SURFACE HEATING SHOULD
REMOVE INHIBITION...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING
LATE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH HODOGRAPHS MAY NOT BE OVERLY
LARGE...CROSS-BOUNDARY DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY. RELATIVELY
LARGE SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS SUGGEST VERY LARGE HAIL WOULD BE
THE PRIMARY INITIAL HAZARD. THE TORNADO RISK SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED IN
EARLY EVENING AS A SLY LLJ STRENGTHENS AND SPREADS LOWER. EWD EXTENT
OF OVERNIGHT SEVERE POTENTIAL IS UNCERTAIN OWING TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN COLD FRONT EVOLUTION AND DEGREE OF NOCTURNAL WARM
SECTOR INHIBITION.

..GRAMS.. 05/09/2014

[venture]

Just a heads up for the weekend. I'll be reporting to the real job for the weekend (working in the evenings) so there will be some differences in coverage this weekend. I'll have the radar stream going, but won't be able to adjust it remotely. I'll be in the chat on my tablet updating as needed.

[mblackwell]

Any chance that SPC moves OK into a Moderate risk for Sunday/Monday based on model trends?

[venture]

Any chance that SPC moves OK into a Moderate risk for Sunday/Monday based on model trends?

I think Monday is a wash out and there will be little severe weather. Sunday I think we could see a bump to moderate. Tornado threat is definitely going to be there as well as some giant hail. This is the forecast NAM sounding for Norman, and conditions will be better just a bit west. Not perfect backing of the winds at the surface, but still good shear and hodograph (the graph on the right) looks pretty good as well. Lots of instability and everything. Could be a pretty busy day.

[PennyQuilts]

I'd rather have weather on a weekend because more people have flexibility on their schedules and don't have to worry about rushing to get kids or being stuck at work. Except, of course, our resident favorite weather geek has that work thing going on.

[bchris02]

Does this look like central OK's most significant setup so far yet this year? What's interesting is the local meteorologists aren't fully in agreement on it. KFOR just recently jumped on the hype train but prior to the noon weather cast they didn't even forecast this to be that significant.

[venture]

Does this look like central OK's most significant setup so far yet this year? What's interesting is the local meteorologists aren't fully in agreement on it. KFOR just recently jumped on the hype train but prior to the noon weather cast they didn't even forecast this to be that significant.

It could be one of our busier days of the year so far for the state. However if you look at the archive we have here (2014 Severe Weather Archive - OKCTalk), there really hasn't been a big day yet at all. The 7th has been the biggest day as far as number of reports, but that was still a typical slight risk day.

Models have not been handling this weekend well at all, so that would explain why some are holding back a bit.

[Charlie40]

Channel 5's Brad Sowder has a post on Channel 5's website saying Significant Severe Weather expected for Sunday.

[ou48A]

KFOR TV CH 4 OKC indicates that there is a moderate risk on Sunday in north central OK, central OK and south central OK..
They indicated that storms should approach the OKC area by about 7 pm and they will include the risk of tornadoes.

[venture]

Day 2 updated to include NC OK now, which goes along with the morning models.

...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY...
MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE CNTRL U.S.
SATURDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES SEWD INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. IN RESPONSE...A SFC LOW WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN ACROSS THE CNTRL
HIGH PLAINS STRENGTHENING MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS ERN KS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A WARM FRONT BECOMES ESTABLISHED. MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR WILL EXIST SOUTHWEST OF THE FRONT WITH SFC DEWPOINTS
ACROSS ERN KS AND MO GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S F TO THE
MID 60S F. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE DESTABILIZATION DURING THE
DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE IN
DISAGREEMENT...THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WOULD BE ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT FROM
ECNTRL KS EWD INTO WRN MO. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP EWD ACROSS
CNTRL AND ERN MO LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD
MARKEDLY INCREASE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD FROM NE
KS...SE NEB EWD ACROSS IA AND NRN MO DUE TO STRONG WARM ADVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 00Z/SUN FOR KANSAS CITY SHOW A DEEP MOIST
LAYER BELOW 850 MB WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS.
THIS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE ESTIMATED
IN THE 2000 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE. THE SOUNDING ALSO SHOWS VEERING
WINDS WITH HEIGHT BELOW 700 MB AND STRONG SPEED SHEAR IN THE
MID-LEVELS RESULTING IN ABOUT 40 TO 45 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THIS
ALONG WITH THE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD MAKE CONDITIONS
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. ISOLATED HAIL GREATER THAN
2 INCHES MAY OCCUR WITH ANY DOMINANT SUPERCELL CLOSE TO THE MAX IN
INSTABILITY. HAVE ADDED A SIGNIFICANT HAIL PROBABILITY CONTOUR
ACROSS ERN KS AND WRN MO WHERE THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL
APPEARS TO BE GREATEST. IN ADDITION...0-3 KM LAPSE RATES APPROACHING
8.5 C/KM SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF A WIND DAMAGE THREAT. AS A 50 TO 65
KT LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL SHOULD CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS NERN
KS...SE NEB...NRN MO AND FAR SW IA.

[Charlie40]

They have central and northern Oklahoma in the slight risk for Day 2 Saturday in the latest outlook you posted above. But they make no reference about what Oklahoma can expect for tomorrow Saturday. Maybe this was an oversight and will be corrected in an updated Day 2 outlook IDK.

[jn1780]

Does this look like central OK's most significant setup so far yet this year? What's interesting is the local meteorologists aren't fully in agreement on it. KFOR just recently jumped on the hype train but prior to the noon weather cast they didn't even forecast this to be that significant.

The bar is pretty low this year so it won't take much to be one of the more "significant" weather days.