General Weather Discussion - April 2014

[Easy180]

Big bust - Golf clap

[jn1780]

Big bust - Golf clap

It wasn't a bust.......

The Oklahoma economy was stimulated by all the stormchasers buying gas, food, tires, mechanics, and hotel rooms during their cloud chasing. Sounds like an economic boom to me! lol

[venture]

Classic example of missing one or two key ingredients causing a bust. Today always went in with not everything lining up perfectly. Coverage was also going to be limited. The fact we had Payne and Morgan going off with their moderate risks did nothing but to ease tensions from this who are gun shy from last year. I doubt they will learn any lessons from this.

Side note... We already hit the cap for traffic on the chat room so it's good to figure that out now than during an out break.

[gjl]

I didn't watch any of the local weather coverage today. What tie was Mike Morgan wearing?

[venture]

Storm outlook...

Looks like we have a break until the next real chance. Some showers and storm this Sunday mainly S and SE OK. Then mostly dry through the 11th. Chance of storms return on the 12th and could see some severe weather in western OK (granted this is way far out). After that looks quiet again. Of course all of this is subject to change and probably will.

[Brett]

I predict this storm season that Mike Morgan will be using the term "Shelter in Place" as much as Emily Sutton uses the word "Breezy".

[Soonerman12]

Venture... With a potential triple point setting up today a few miles west of Tulsa today, where is your most likely area for tstorm development? I would think the storms would fire off rapidly at the intercept point of the cold front and dry line probably just east of Tulsa. Should the cap be much weaker and break today? I know that was the main issue yesterday as we couldn't get any vertical development in your guys area.

[venture]

Venture... With a potential triple point setting up today a few miles west of Tulsa today, where is your most likely area for tstorm development? I would think the storms would fire off rapidly at the intercept point of the cold front and dry line probably just east of Tulsa. Should the cap be much weaker and break today? I know that was the main issue yesterday as we couldn't get any vertical development in your guys area.

See the latest HRRR to have an idea on where to look today: Loop

[venture]

Cold front getting ready to pass through Central OK. There is already severe weather taking place in SE OK and also along the AR border. Not sure how this will impact any initiation along the cold front as it gets into NE OK, but it might keep things from getting too crazy until it moves east of the state.

[LocoAko]

Well, I got to see a gustnado and pea sized hail covering the road... womp.

[venture]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0261
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1233 PM CDT THU APR 03 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...SE KS...SW MO...NE OK...FAR NW AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 031733Z - 031900Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SEVERE THREAT IS RAPIDLY INCREASING ACROSS SE KS INTO NE
OK. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. ALL SEVERE
HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH VERY LARGE HAIL...STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS
AND TORNADOES POSSIBLE. A WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT
HOUR.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED AGITATED CU FIELD JUST
AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT/DRYLINE ACROSS SE KS SWD INTO NE OK. 17Z
MESOANALYSIS INDICATED LITTLE IF ANY CAP REMAINED ACROSS THIS
REGION. THIS MATCHES WELL WITH MODIFIED 17Z RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
AS THE FRONT ADVANCES TOWARD THE REGION OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO...STORMS ARE FORECAST TO QUICKLY DEVELOP AND BECOME SEVERE. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL FAVOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS /AT LEAST INITIALLY/. AS
LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS MIDLEVEL WAVE
IMPINGES ON THE REGION...STORMS MAY TEND TOWARD UPSCALE GROWTH INTO
A BROKEN LINE OF SUPERCELLS AND/OR QLCS STRUCTURES. EITHER WAY...LOW
LEVEL SHEAR AND FORECAST HODOGRAPHS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING
LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES AND AN ATTENDANT TORNADO THREAT.
ADDITIONALLY...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.5-8 DEG C PER KM
AND SBCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 3500 J/KG WILL SUPPORT VERY LARGE HAIL
DEVELOPMENT.

PORTION OF TORNADO WATCH 0049 WOULD LIKELY BE REPLACED WITH A NEW
WATCH TO ENCOMPASS THREAT AS STORMS MOVE EWD INTO SW MO/NW AR.

..LEITMAN/HART.. 04/03/2014

[Bunty]

And so a strong line of storms have formed from near the northeast corner of Oklahoma southwest to I-40. Tulsa will miss out on much of good and bad part of it, since that part of the line got started there overhead.

[venture]

A couple of tornado watches are up now for eastern and south central OK. I'm at work so can't let them right now.

[Anonymous.]

Nice supercell on the end of that line, near Denton TX.

[PennyQuilts]

Nice supercell on the end of that line, near Denton TX.

They just reported a tornado on the ground in Denton.

[PennyQuilts]

Shut out of the live chat.

[venture]

Shut out of the live chat.

Yeah they changed how they count users I pay for now. It is every impression now instead of unique user. So I'm going to find a new system since we will peg the limit really fat on any major day. I have an idea that might be pretty neat.

[PennyQuilts]

Well, don't break your budget!

[ou48A]

Ch 9 (DP) indicated last night that the next chance for severe storms would be in about 10 days...
That would be about the 13th

In the mean time lets hope we get some rain.

[venture]

Well, don't break your budget!

No worries on that. It'll be extra work, but if I can pull it off it'll be better.

Ch 9 (DP) indicated last night that the next chance for severe storms would be in about 10 days...
That would be about the 13th

They should put out another of their homegrown Moderate Risks now for it...or maybe just go right to High. sigh

[bchris02]

Maybe they should issue their own PDS watch.

[venture]

Maybe they should issue their own PDS watch.

Oh god. Thanks. Now they are going to. LOL

[venture]

Storm outlook for this week is pretty quiet overall, with a couple opportunities...

Thursday PM - Very slight chance for a storm in SW OK if anything can form, but right now looks like a very low chance.

Saturday/Early Sunday - Complex day overall. Good push of moisture moving up through the day. We'll have a dryline somewhere out west, maybe near SW OK, a surface low in the TX PH, and then a cold front coming down from KS. GFS has some rain and storms early moving through SW OK before noon and Central OK by mid afternoon. Instability seems to build behind the early convection and storms will form up along the front in KS and also ahead of the surface low in W OK. Looks like most of the activity will remain north of I-40 on Saturday and for most of Sunday. As the front gets past the main body of Oklahoma on Sunday storms should pop up along the entire boundary.

Right now, I wouldn't expect anything too severe for Oklahoma but we'll need to keep and eye on things to see if timing works out any better for storm development.

Longer range nothing major showing up.

[venture]

Isolated storms are starting to develop in NW OK and will move SE through the day. They will increase as we approve peak heating with the main risk being some gusty winds and small hail.

[venture]

Some small hail reports showing up now in southern KS. Would expect the same as these smaller showers/storms increase in intensity.