General Weather Discussion - January 2014

[SoonerDave]

Goes to show you how different criteria effects different areas.

Nearly the entire Gulf coast was under 'Winter Storm Warnings' for the last couple days for just 1-3 inches of snow. I think Atlanta got somewhere around 2-3 inches and the entire city shut down.

People up north make memes and other jokes about southern states being affected by little winter precip. But the city infrastructure and most importantly, the citizens do not know how to act/handle the winter conditions.

Here in OK, we might as well be thrown into the same boat, schools and offices often times do not cancel and plan ahead of time.

From what I've seen, Anon, what's really got Atlanta crippled is the ice. I've driven that stretch of I-75 through the heart of Atlanta a few times, and it is eight lanes of misery on a good day. I can't (and don't want to) fathom what that must be like on ice in that area.

One thing I will say, however, is that we here in OK have gotten a good deal more, well, "proactive" I suppose about winter weather. We've had some close calls on closing things at times, but I honestly think that with comparable advance warning, we wouldn't be in quite the same shape as Atlanta.

Another thing that occurred to me is how Birmingham would be faring in all this, as parts of it along the south (toward the suburb of Homewood) and southeast regions of town are more or less sculpted into and along some really beautiful rolling hills (real rolling hills, mind you ) with steep grades that can be a little dicey even in just rain - can't imagine what they'd be like in ice and/or snow.

[s00nr1]

A look at the 12Z ECMWF for next Tuesday at 6pm:

[venture]

To tag on to S00nr1's post showing total precip, here is the Euro output for snowfall and also the surface temps for that same time...



Surface Temps - yellow line is freezing line.

[venture]

18Z GFS Updates...

Sunday snow - around 1-2" now for the Metro area, heavier southwest.

Late Monday/Tuesday storm - 0.1" precip mix of freezing rain and snow. Maybe 1-2" of snow for the Metro area. It does a major shift to the SE...like Louisiana and Mississippi southeast. I'm not changing anything yet, but we know how these things love to jump around.

[Easy180]

So are any of the models getting the metro over 4 inches total for Sun-Tues? Can we rule out an ice storm?

Just wondering if it is mostly safe to say this won't be Armageddon

[venture]

So are any of the models getting the metro over 4 inches total for Sun-Tues? Can we rule out an ice storm?

Just wondering if it is mostly safe to say this won't be Armageddon

There just aren't many to go off of right now until we really start getting with in 72-84 hours of the day we need to forecast for. The ECMWF runs twice a day and the one posted above was from this afternoon, so it definitely isn't out of date already. GFS runs 4 times a day, but can flop greatly between runs. We can't rule anything out right now.

[Uncle Slayton]

Venture, did you hear the guy in Atlanta at the press conference throwing the Wx guys under the bus? "They told us Atlanta wasn't going to get hit..."

[damonsmuz]

Heck, we have a hard enough time forecasting snow totals 1 day out.... this far out still very tricky. The answer lies in the ensembles.

[bchris02]

Latest GFS moves precip. chances to Monday, and starts to bring Tuesday - Wednesday storm back NW.

Also long range indicates doomsday storm for that following weekend.

What do you mean Doomsday storm?

[Plutonic Panda]

What do you mean Doomsday storm?

Tornados that rain down Walmart's man...... hurry, get of OKC while ya still can...

I'm just messing with ya bro haha

[gjl]

Get ready for this again.

[ZYX2]

From what I've seen, Anon, what's really got Atlanta crippled is the ice. I've driven that stretch of I-75 through the heart of Atlanta a few times, and it is eight lanes of misery on a good day. I can't (and don't want to) fathom what that must be like on ice in that area.

One thing I will say, however, is that we here in OK have gotten a good deal more, well, "proactive" I suppose about winter weather. We've had some close calls on closing things at times, but I honestly think that with comparable advance warning, we wouldn't be in quite the same shape as Atlanta.

Another thing that occurred to me is how Birmingham would be faring in all this, as parts of it along the south (toward the suburb of Homewood) and southeast regions of town are more or less sculpted into and along some really beautiful rolling hills (real rolling hills, mind you ) with steep grades that can be a little dicey even in just rain - can't imagine what they'd be like in ice and/or snow.

I have family that lives in Hoover. My cousin stayed the night at his high school. The roads are completely clogged with abandoned cars. It looks apocalyptic.

[gjl]

I am supposed to go to Wichita Thursday 2/6/14 and return to OKC on Saturday 2/8/14. Any idea what I can expect weather-wise for those days?

[bandnerd]

I am supposed to go to Wichita Thursday 2/6/14 and return to OKC on Saturday 2/8/14. Any idea what I can expect weather-wise for those days?

Meteor.

[Anonymous.]

This is what we got this morning.


Small piece of energy off main storm system comes out across NW TX into SW OK Sunday night into Monday. Looks like someone in SW to SC to C OK could get bullseyed with a quick 3-4 inches of snow depending on where the band sets up. This sort of shoves off east and falls apart.

Main system rolls out from TX panhandle early Tuesday with large precip shield. Right now it wants to hit most of the state with rain changing to snow, snow line looks to be close to central OK (per usual). And the threat of dry slot is very high across western, central, and northern OK. So right now KS looks to be getting in the main snow zone.


Going longer range:
After that we have a few days break until Friday night into Saturday. Looks like a very large storm at this time and it looks like nearly all snow. The system coming earlier in the week will determine how this one pans out. But as it looks right now, it appears to be significant.

Looking even beyond that, another system comes through the following Wednesday.


Bottom line, we will likely see multiple storms the next couple weeks, with what looks like temperatures struggling to get above freezing for a long duration. This will only be amplified by any snowpack that settles in.

So get your gloves and shovels ready.

[kelroy55]

Meteor.

+1

[Roger S]

Bottom line, we will likely see multiple storms the next couple weeks, with what looks like temperatures struggling to get above freezing for a long duration. This will only be amplified by any snowpack that settles in.

So get your gloves and shovels ready.

Bottom line is.... This is seriously impacting the beginning of my 2014 fishing season.... I'm getting to old to fish in the cold!

[LakeEffect]

this is what we got this morning.


Small piece of energy off main storm system comes out across nw tx into sw ok sunday night into monday. Looks like someone in sw to sc to c ok could get bullseyed with a quick 3-4 inches of snow depending on where the band sets up. This sort of shoves off east and falls apart.

Main system rolls out from tx panhandle early tuesday with large precip shield. Right now it wants to hit most of the state with rain changing to snow, snow line looks to be close to central ok (per usual). And the threat of dry slot is very high across western, central, and northern ok. So right now ks looks to be getting in the main snow zone.


Going longer range:
After that we have a few days break until friday night into saturday. Looks like a very large storm at this time and it looks like nearly all snow. The system coming earlier in the week will determine how this one pans out. But as it looks right now, it appears to be significant.

Looking even beyond that, another system comes through the following wednesday.


Bottom line, we will likely see multiple storms the next couple weeks, with what looks like temperatures struggling to get above freezing for a long duration. This will only be amplified by any snowpack that settles in.

So get your gloves and shovels ready.

like like like

[Of Sound Mind]

[s00nr1]

Call me the contrarian but I think it's still far too early to be confident about next week's potential storms. The Tuesday and Friday systems haven't even come on-shore yet. Not to mention current model trends (both ECMWF and GFS) are bringing warmer air back into the area. Now, Sunday could be a sneaky snow day (2-3" possible) but I think the gun has been jumped in relation to calling for major winter storms next week. Let's get to Saturday before we start hyping this thing up.

[Of Sound Mind]

Technically, by definition, any forecasting beyond tomorrow would be moot in this thread... right?

[Anonymous.]

This thread is dedicated to forecasts based on latest data that comes in (some multiple times a day).

Painting the picture for the different runs is the whole point of forecasting. I don't believe anyone who monitors our weather threads is actually taking each post (especially early ones) to the bank. All you have to do is read the most recent posts in here to see what the latest data portrays. This is why we emphasize "this is how it looks right now". This forum isn't about hype, it is about information and at times close to and during events, it is essentially information in real-time.

I personally do believe the southern plains will see a snowstorm early next week, KS is hot spot at this time. OK is in high bust area right now.


New NAM moves the Sunday snow chances further east. Putting a band of 2-3 inches from SW to C OK, and a secondary band in SE OK with up to 6 inches of snow.

[SoonerDave]

Call me the contrarian but I think it's still far too early to be confident about next week's potential storms. The Tuesday and Friday systems haven't even come on-shore yet. Not to mention current model trends (both ECMWF and GFS) are bringing warmer air back into the area. Now, Sunday could be a sneaky snow day (2-3" possible) but I think the gun has been jumped in relation to calling for major winter storms next week. Let's get to Saturday before we start hyping this thing up.

Maybe I'm alone in this, but as a long-time follower on this thread, I think the discussion so far has been a fairly normal "heads up, this may be on the way" kind of discussion. Don't think this round has been unusually spun up or hyped...fully expect a pretty good discussion shortly on that model bringing the warm air back in...

I, for one, would be just as happy if it were just a rain event...got Thunder tickets for Monday for what may be the only time this season and I'd really rather it not get iced out

[ou48A]

This thread is dedicated to forecasts based on latest data that comes in (some multiple times a day).

Painting the picture for the different runs is the whole point of forecasting. I don't believe anyone who monitors our weather threads is actually taking each post (especially early ones) to the bank. All you have to do is read the most recent posts in here to see what the latest data portrays. This is why we emphasize "this is how it looks right now". This forum isn't about hype, it is about information and at times close to and during events, it is essentially information in real-time.

I personally do believe the southern plains will see a snowstorm early next week, KS is hot spot at this time. OK is in high bust area right now.


New NAM moves the Sunday snow chances further east. Putting a band of 2-3 inches from SW to C OK, and a secondary band in SE OK with up to 6 inches of snow.

Thanks for what you do......
Readers of this thread need to understand exactly what you are saying about the information that's posted here.

Most of us seem to understand that any of it can still change when it still several days away.

[s00nr1]

Apologies to Anon for the confusion but I was mainly referring to local on-air mets who are already forecasting snowmageddon 6/9 days out.