April 2024 - General Weather Discussion

[C_M_25]

Just looked at this mornings sounding data and it looks like we’re going to have to be in the 90’s today to erode the cap. Somehow, I called the low level blanket of clouds last week, and it looks like that’s going to be in play today. Looks like today isn’t really going to be anything major unless something comes in after dark.

If this set up was in early-May, this would probably be a different story.

[BG918]

Best rain chances now are with storms along the front overnight. Not likely severe but if they are hail will be the primary threat.

Another chance of storms Thursday but whether or not moisture can return will impact if they are severe. Models have been trending toward most of the storms pushing into SE OK and Texas.

[SoonerDave]

Best rain chances now are with storms along the front overnight. Not likely severe but if they are hail will be the primary threat.

Another chance of storms Thursday but whether or not moisture can return will impact if they are severe. Models have been trending toward most of the storms pushing into SE OK and Texas.

Dear heavens, not Thursday. That's my son's birthday, and last year we went to dinner for his birthday and got caught in a monstrous hailstorm. Not two years in a row. Sorry, personal indulgence...but just...no

[kukblue1]

It's going to be almost impossible to rlnreak this cap today. But I'll take the Mike Morgan approach. We might get a storm. We might not get a storm. Either way, I have it out. . https://x.com/MikeMorganKFOR/status/1779876257179582886

[Anonymous.]

Latest HRRR shows it pretty quiet for most of the state, perhaps a cell or two can get up and going out of NW TX.

[kukblue1]

If there's going to be a chance for storms in the Metro, it will be overnight early morning when the cap may break

[rjstone208]

So should I put on my Hail Protector? Pain to do so, but it works. I can live with dime or nickel but not larger.

[kukblue1]

So should I put on my Hail Protector? Pain to do so, but it works. I can live with dime or nickel but not larger.

IF a storm can break this cap it probably would be a pretty big storm but that is a BIG IF HUGE IF cause there is a HUGE CAP as of right now Monday Morning

[SoonerDave]

Are there any NWS or SPC products that define or quantify the strength of the CAP?

[SoonerDave]

Sure looks like the sun is trying to poke out of the thick morning cloud base. If we get unexpected clearing/heating that could change the game pretty fast going into the afternoon I'd think....

[C_M_25]

It would have to get very warm. Like in the 90’s.

[SoonerDave]

It would have to get very warm. Like in the 90’s.

Yeah I looked at the satellite and the cloud deck isn't changing, and the mid level CIN is still huge.

[jn1780]

Yeah, getting small elevated showers. No cap busting today.

[kukblue1]

HUH What is going on there Nam st with your 18z run. Blowing up storm around 10pm in Nw Oklahoma. Something maybe to keep an eye on? HRRR tries but doesn't really get them going.

[SoonerDave]

HUH What is going on there Nam st with your 18z run. Blowing up storm around 10pm in Nw Oklahoma. Something maybe to keep an eye on? HRRR tries but doesn't really get them going.

Anything that might fire up would absolutely fly to the NE and into KS pretty fast, so that's not entirely inconsistent with the SPC guidance

[kukblue1]

https://x.com/weathertrackus/status/1780004008821665917 They could stay in Oklahoma for a bit but it's still a big IF that cap is still pretty strong.

[kukblue1]

8pm central. Cap is very strong over OKC. Hrrr is now picking up storms in NW Oklahoma North Central after 1am. I would think the would be very elevated with this cap so maybe some small hail overnight.

[jn1780]

I won't call it a bust since this seemed likely to occur as early as Friday. The long-range 30% outlook did not verify, but that's why the max is set at 30% that far out, have to keep everything in perspective.

[BG918]

I won't call it a bust since this seemed likely to occur as early as Friday. The long-range 30% outlook did not verify, but that's why the max is set at 30% that far out, have to keep everything in perspective.

I would. From potential severe weather outbreak to not even rain, let alone a thunderstorm.

[C_M_25]

Nah. This wasn’t a bust. The models are not infallible 6 plus days out. Seems like you get some signals of something big heading your way but as you get closer to that day, you learn more and get more data. Then you adjust the forecast if necessary. That’s exactly what happened here.

I would call this a bust if they kept promoting a major severe weather outbreak yesterday but that didn’t happen.

[jn1780]

Nah. This wasn’t a bust. The models are not infallible 6 plus days out. Seems like you get some signals of something big heading your way but as you get closer to that day, you learn more and get more data. Then you adjust the forecast if necessary. That’s exactly what happened here.

I would call this a bust if they kept promoting a major severe weather outbreak yesterday but that didn’t happen.

Yeah, there had to at least be a slight chance to cover the event that one storm did bust the cap. Forecast modeling and statistics is a concept the general public doesn't understand, but a lot of people do so official sources can't ignore it. They have to try to quantify the event even at 6 days out. Don't want the hypers to have the full stage.

[MagzOK]

Nah. This wasn’t a bust. The models are not infallible 6 plus days out. Seems like you get some signals of something big heading your way but as you get closer to that day, you learn more and get more data. Then you adjust the forecast if necessary. That’s exactly what happened here.

I would call this a bust if they kept promoting a major severe weather outbreak yesterday but that didn’t happen.

When the local-yocals here in the market take that storm prediction data from a week out and promote it as religion -- doom and gloom -- yes it's a bust. Also, KWTV even as late as YESTERDAY EVENING was promoting large hail and damaging winds across Oklahoma overnight and to "be weather aware." They finally started laying off late in the evening, but only because nothing was developing.

This current group of meteorologists now simply roll footage of actual model runs. Gone are the days of them sitting at their desks, ingesting all the data, and putting it all together using their guts and instincts into their own forecasts. I noticed it several years ago when Morgan actually sad the "HER" model and documented the HRRR at the top of the screen. I was floored. Now everyone is doing it, including coveted mets at KWTV. This way they can come back and blame the computers for the bad forecast. Anybody can stand up there and run a model and tell us about it.

I know he's controversial here because he's called out the local weather media, but Aaron Tuttle, if you go back and look at his forecast the day after the locals forecasted gloom and doom, he actually stopped everything and said hey you can also read things in the models that will keep an outbreak from happening so don't get caught up in the drama.

Right yet again.

[jn1780]

Morgan has history, but he never called for an outbreak yesterday. Of course, he is patting himself on the back for it, not much different from what Tuttle is doing who also has history. They are all selling products so they will take a risk on a bet if it means differentiating themselves from the competition.

[kukblue1]

I'll go with bust just for the simple fact that even on Saturday they had enhanced risk area for Western Oklahoma and by than it was pretty obvious we were going to have a strong strong cap. Even Sunday I think they were Enhanced. I think it wasn't until Monday morning did they start to back off and even than no way that cap was breaking.

Of course Morgan had to brag https://x.com/MikeMorganKFOR/status/1780243858116231669. Would anyone like to tell him it was more the Cap holding than the timing of the event. If it wasn't for the Cap we would have big storms overnight.

[BG918]

NWS is also to blame. Still showing 80% chance of thunderstorms and enhanced risk of severe weather yesterday. I'll say the HRRR never bought into many storms developing south into OK but still showed some elevated storms which didn't materialize at all.

On to the next one...rain/thunderstorm chances return Thursday into Saturday across the state. Southern OK looks to have the best chances for higher totals through the weekend but will be dependent on storm track.