June 2023 - General Weather Discussion

[Anonymous.]

What time are we thinking these will get to OKC?

The storm(s) down across SW OK will stay south. Any new development north of that and into the cells firing up in the panhandle will be the sweep-thru action that could impact OKC later this evening.

The storms there should continue to upscale into large MCS. Damaging wind threat will exist all points SE of there.

[Anonymous.]

SERIOUS supercell down there just passing E of Lawton.

[BG918]

SERIOUS supercell down there just passing E of Lawton.

Lawton has been hit hard by storms this week

[OkiePoke]

Storm passing through Southern metro

[SoonerDave]

Won't this little storm rumbling through SW OKC kinda beat up the atmosphere a bit?

[PoliSciGuy]

Won't this little storm rumbling through SW OKC kinda beat up the atmosphere a bit?

Nah, if anything it'll put down some outflow boundaries that will stir things up even more. There's more than enough juice in the atmosphere for multiple rounds

[Jeepnokc]

Does anything show a mini tornado or something similar near SW 104th and Macarthur Our neighborhood had sudden high winds that took out trees, blew furniture and firewood all over the neighborhood. Was about 415-430 ish

[Anonymous.]

Does anything show a mini tornado or something similar near SW 19th and Macarthur Our neighborhood had sudden high winds that took out trees, blew furniture and firewood all over the neighborhood. Was about 415-430 ish

Nah, not a tornado. Most likely just bursts of wind from these storms trying to pop up across the area. They are moving very fast so it happens in minutes.


Mesoscale Discussion is out for MCS development across NW OK.

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0453 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

Areas affected...southwestern Kansas...eastern Oklahoma/Texas
Panhandles...and northwestern Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 306...

Valid 152153Z - 160000Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 306
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe wind threat is increasing across the southeast
portion of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 306 as storms continue to
organize and grow upscale and move eastward through the late
afternoon and evening.

DISCUSSION...The convective line is beginning to orient north-south
across southwest Kansas into the northern Texas Panhandle with
occasional severe gusts already being measured. Westerly shear
vectors through the low-to-midlevels should favor this orientation
for forward propagation to the east as the storms/cold pools
continue to merge. The downstream environment and latest WoFs runs
support this organization and eastward movement, including the
potential for significant severe wind gusts.

..Jirak/Grams.. 06/15/2023

[Anonymous.]

Cell coming up in Weatherford is potential C OK impact. It is in clear area with high instability. ~6;35pm

[SEMIweather]

Cell coming up in Weatherford is potential C OK impact. It is in clear area with high instability. ~6;35pm

In Binger currently, about to head N/W towards this one. It has the classic “knuckling tops” look that occurs when a storm is quickly intensifying.

[Anonymous.]

In Binger currently, about to head N/W towards this one. It has the classic “knuckling tops” look that occurs when a storm is quickly intensifying.

Yea get up into Hinton and see if it is going to hug I-40.

[PoliSciGuy]

Cell coming up in Weatherford is potential C OK impact. It is in clear area with high instability. ~6;35pm

Yeah and we've got the LLJ about to kick in in the next hour or so

[Anonymous.]

50mph gusts registering on Mesonet up in NW OK associated with the cluster of storms. The southern end of the complex has embedded supercells dropping monster hail and potential tornados. There is a lot going on right now.

[BG918]

Wow that supercell in SW OK heading into TX is a sight to behold

[April in the Plaza]

Wow that supercell in SW OK heading into TX is a sight to behold

Looks like three distinct TW’s attached to it?

[C_M_25]

Man. Blair down in southwest ok getting slammed again. Another impressive supercell down there.

[Anonymous.]

A lot of cells coming up now between the main line out in NW OK and into C OK. Localized flash flood threat will be increasing as we head into the night.

[Ohwiseone]

It is starting to get really junky in OKC. So many storms are popping up.

[chssooner]

Hopefully that line doesn't split and miss OKC altogether.

[Pete]

Raining hard at my house... It feels like one of those storms where there is going to be some hail.

Glad I put fertilizer down today!

[PoliSciGuy]

The NAM has completely backed off of any rain for the okc area.

I think the NAM missed on this system

[C_M_25]

I think the NAM missed on this system

In retrospect, they all missed on this system. In fact, the early morning HRRR runs were closer to what actually happened today vs the HRRR runs this afternoon. It seems like they were all struggling with the dew points as the day went along for whatever reason.

[C_M_25]

The line is weakening heading to the city so the NAM did get that one right.

[SEMIweather]

Very messy event and did not really unfold at all like what was modeled due to the early initiation (I’m guessing there was a subtle disturbance that kicked things off) but ultimately the Moderate Risk will probably verify.

Still going to be a wind damage threat with this final round about to move through but the fortunately the higher-end potential no longer seems to be there.

[C_M_25]

I guess on to the next one. Saturday is already looking kinda spicy especially in NW Oklahoma. Will have to watch carefully.