May 2024 - General Weather Discussion

[Anonymous.]

Anon, doesn't it seem like the little storms in SW just start up then dissolve?

Yes, the dryline in that area has hardly moved this evening, definitely the conditional scenario further down there. The dryline is still W of Mangum and Elk City.

[C_M_25]

Is it me or did the speed of these storms just die? Feel like they’re not progressing east very fast at all.

[SoonerDave]

Line in N Central OK continues to track ENE, northern extreme moving into KS.

[VeggieMeat]

Yeah that cigar cloud was insane.

….also I feel like news 9 has not utilized Jim Gardner much this year, and when they do use him, it seems awkward. The audio isn’t great either.

I wouldn't be surprised if theirs is in the shop. N9TV is the Bell 407 they've previously used until the hail incident, and N2BQ is what they've been flying this year. N9TV's most recent filed flight was to Tri-Cities in Tennessee, and there is a Bell Service Center just down the road from there.

[Anonymous.]

Dryline is visible on Frederick radar, moving east at a good clip now. Should encourage development down to the SW. Keep an eye around Altus - Hobart - Weatherford.,

[C_M_25]

Ok, like another person wrote, storm coverage over saturation is a thing for me in regards to these later events. I’m losing interest by the minute mainly because I’m tired but I’m also just kinda tired of listening to weather. That being said…

Feel like the models really struggled with pegging this system early. There was no early initiation away from the dry line like the HRRR suggested. Thats the second time in as many weeks where this happened. Also, we had yet another massive PDS tornado watch in which nothing happened at all (so far) in the majority of the area. There were a lot of business closures. The atmosphere was obviously primed, but we failed to really see everything come together in a massive tornado outbreak (please bear with me because I know the night is young. I’m just tired and about to call it a night.)

What really bothers me with this is the boy-who-cried-wolf scenario. It’s good businesses release early and cancel activities. Better safe than sorry. However, there will be a time where they stop taking this seriously. I’ve seen it happen with my company. They got burned too many times with stuff like this and just stopped releasing people. They put it on us and our pto reserves to leave if we feel the need. I’m glad nothing major has happened (yet) but I worry about a bigger issue down the road if people stop taking these types of days seriously.

Edit: I want to edit and say the models did do a good job predicting this system as it kinda got under way. Things have been moving along much like it was expected. Major supercells turning into a line of storms. Just didn’t see the large PDS tornadoes. Again, that is a good thing, but I worry for the day when PDS is called for and it does happen and people don’t take it seriously.

[BG918]

Watching that “tail end Charlie” closely as it moves along I-40. These types of storms can often be tornadic since they have more inflow

[SoonerDave]

Yes, the dryline in that area has hardly moved this evening, definitely the conditional scenario further down there. The dryline is still W of Mangum and Elk City.

Anon, if that dryline does allow storms to form, are we looking at individual cells or a more linear organization? Is the long-track threat still as high?

[C_M_25]

Insane amounts of rain being dropped right now. Will be very helpful for that part of the state which usually misses out.

[Anonymous.]

Anon, if that dryline does allow storms to form, are we looking at individual cells or a more linear organization? Is the long-track threat still as high?

Long-track threat is definitely waning. But anything even within lines will have rotation. As can be seen currently on the tail-end cell heading toward Okarche and N of Piedmont area.

[SoonerDave]

Long-track threat is definitely waning. But anything even within lines will have rotation. As can be seen currently on the tail-end cell heading toward Okarche and N of Piedmont area.

Oh no question. Thanks.

[Bunty]

Very heavy rain moving through Stillwater as of 9:10 pm. Fortunately, that's it.

[SoonerDave]

Is development in SW OKC getting a *bit* more organized? Still see some popping and fizzing out.

[Anonymous.]

Weatherford and Hobart are lighting up now, like I mentioned earlier - the dryline is quickly smashing through this area and will encourage the development zone to shift SW. This will likely drape a cluster of storms all the way across C OK over the next few hours. Flash flood threat will be real.

[ComeOnBenjals!]

Potential EF3-EF4 Torando NE of Tulsa... heading right towards Bartlesville. Not good

[SoonerDave]

Man the echo on the tornado near Barnsdall is ugly. That's a monster. If it holds together, Bartlesville could be at risk.

[bison34]

So OKC goes from closing the courthouse at 2pm, to not seeing storms until maybe 2am? The irony.

[SoonerDave]

New storm near Mangum popping

[ComeOnBenjals!]

Tornado Emergency in Bartlesville - this thing has been on the ground forever.

[Anonymous.]

Looks like W Bartlesville took a direct hit. The line of storms and the tornado intersected directly on the town.

[soonerguru]

So OKC goes from closing the courthouse at 2pm, to not seeing storms until maybe 2am? The irony.

No irony at all. These events are hard to predict. The courthouse listened to the scientists and took steps to protect their employees and the public. Nothing ironic at all.

[Bunty]

Tornado Emergency in Bartlesville - this thing has been on the ground forever.

That storm started developing just to the southeast of Stillwater well ahead of the line to the west. By the time, it got into Pawnee county and first became severe, David Payne said that storm was running for its life to avoid being absorbed by the line. It got absorbed.

I'm now monitoring coverage of it on KOTV-6 Tulsa with Travis Meyer as that storm now bearing a tornado is warned for Bartlesville with radar indicated winds up to 100 mph. Before that it hit Barnsdall with damage reported.

Heavy rains that had stopped in Stillwater now resuming and took the rain amount over 1 inch.

[bison34]

No irony at all. These events are hard to predict. The courthouse listened to the scientists and took steps to protect their employees and the public. Nothing ironic at all.

But I don't think anyone was saying OKC would be hit early on, and would be later in the afternoon or evening. I get keeping people safe, 100%. But sometimes, it gets a little overdone. People bash News channels for showing weather all night, then praise the courthouse for closing at 2pm. Just seems like a double-standard.

[Urbanized]

Some people - myself included - would rather their employees be home safe with their families than still on the road to wherever they live (which could be anywhere in a one-hour radius) when a dangerous storm hits. Some people have kids they must pick up or otherwise deal with after they leave work. Some folks serve other family members as caretakers. Some folks deal with anxiety. Some offices take hours to shut down once the decision is made.

I’d never be able to forgive myself if I stayed open just a bit longer to squeeze out a few more dollars and someone got hurt because of my decision. It’s one I am forced to make many times each year, and it costs me plenty to exercise care. But the potential cost for NOT doing it is much, much higher.

Sometimes people who have strong opinions about how other people choose to run their businesses should just…stay in their own lane.

[bison34]

Some people - myself included - would rather their employees be home safe with their families than still on the road to wherever they live (which could be anywhere in a one-hour radius) when a dangerous storm hits. Some people have kids they must pick up or otherwise deal with after they leave work. Some folks serve other family members as caretakers. Some folks deal with anxiety. Some offices take hours to shut down once the decision is made.

I’d never be able to forgive myself if I stayed open just a bit longer to squeeze out a few more dollars and someone got hurt because of my decision. It’s one I am forced to make many times each year, and it costs me plenty to exercise care, but the potential cost for NOT doing it is much, much higher.

Sometimes people who have strong opinions about how other people choose to run their businesses should just…stay in their own lane.

I get that, 100%. But courthouses serve a public purpose, that sometimes doesn't go on pause for a storm. But putting people first, sure. It is hard to bash. I am not bashing them, just saying it is ironic they closed at 2pm, and storms may not get anywhere near them til 2am. Not bashing, at all.

I will not comment on it any further.