May 2021 - General Weather Discussion

[Libbymin]

It seems like every day shows a good chance of rain, then it suddenly evaporates and then it's the same forecast the next day.

It's all one big tease.

Yeah this has been one strange two week period of weather forecasts. Also, we get the thick air without any of the actual rain. Feels like New Orleans or Houston out there.

[kukblue1]

They moved the Tornado risk a bit with the noon update. Tulsa in the bullseye. Not much of a change but a change none the less. I think it will come down to where the outflow boundary ends up from dying overnight storms.

[SEMIweather]

Feeling fairly confident in a severe MCS moving through the metro tomorrow evening. Main bust potential IMO is if the outflow boundary associated with tonight’s MCS in Kansas/Nebraska ends up stalling out further south than currently modeled, as tomorrow’s MCS will likely form along that boundary. Most models currently have this boundary stalling out in Northern OK, with subsequent convective initiation there tomorrow afternoon. This would then look to form into a line and sink south through the Metro tomorrow evening. Will want to wait until tomorrow morning to confirm that this will all happen as currently modeled, because sometimes these boundaries do end up further south than anticipated, which in this case would shift the main severe threat south of OKC. But otherwise, I think it’s all systems go for a potentially notable severe weather event. This is the most confident I’ve been about an event this spring, although granted that’s not saying too much given how quiet things have been. Will try to post an update later tonight if there’s anything new.

[Anonymous.]

PDS TOR watch is out for W KS tonight. Already been one monster supercell up there, and expecting a few more to form in the next couple hours.

Dodge City radar will be getting a workout.

[kukblue1]

PDS TOR watch is out for W KS tonight. Already been one monster supercell up there, and expecting a few more to form in the next couple hours.

Dodge City radar will be getting a workout.

https://www.twitch.tv/bgraywx/ It has dropped serval tornadoes in sw Nebraska.

[kukblue1]

Tomorrow HUH? A bit different in timing but HRRR and Nam Nest show storms in the afternoon 1-4 and then around round at 7. HUH? Both lines will be severe if the models hold true but look at today. Cough Cough Western Kansas MAJOR BUST

[PoliSciGuy]

Yeah the atmosphere is going to be potent tomorrow but just what exactly the storm mode and timing will be is a bit of a crapshoot. Definite PDS bust in KS today.

[SEMIweather]

Tomorrow is probably going to be a very messy setup but no doubt we are going to have a nice round or two of storms. Will be interested to see what the radar/surface OBS look like when I wake up in 8 hours or so. Definitely looks like there's going to be fairly rapid upscale growth as opposed to long-lived supercells, which is good news.

[C_M_25]

Not excited about what I’m seeing this morning on the models. They’re still showing a line of storms for today, but the line is a lot more ragged to the southwest and over the metro...depending on the model you’re looking at. It’s still a lot more robust up near Tulsa. The model trends from last night to this morning make me nervous for another bust. It looks like moisture, or lack there of, in the mid/upper levels is hindering storm development? Otherwise, the instability is there. Not sure why things aren’t looking as good in the metro and parts southwest compared to last night.

[Celebrator]

I love the weather talk on this thread, but look at the last two posts prior. Can we agree on language/ point of view at least so the forecasts are more clear? You have C_M_25 here saying " not sure why things aren't looking as good in the Metro..." which means not looking good for storm development? And then you have SEMIweather saying " definitely looks like there's going to be fairly rapid upscale growth as opposed to long-lived supercells which is good news." Good news that there's not going to be super cell development? I think I know enough about weather around here to assume this is good news for less severe weather in the Metro? It's tough for us non weather folks to interpret these forecasts when the points of view between narratives are different. Some folks like the thrill of severe weather, I can tell, and others would much rather not have severe weather around with all the challenges it brings. If you all could keep that in mind when writing up your forecasts and be very objective in your language so us laymen can be clear about what you're saying, it would be much appreciated. Thanks to all those that look at the models and comment on here, though.

[OSUPeterson]

I love the weather talk on this thread, but look at the last two posts prior. Can we agree on language/ point of view at least so the forecasts are more clear? You have C_M_25 here saying " not sure why things aren't looking as good in the Metro..." which means not looking good for storm development? And then you have SEMIweather saying " definitely looks like there's going to be fairly rapid upscale growth as opposed to long-lived supercells which is good news." Good news that there's not going to be super cell development? I think I know enough about weather around here to assume this is good news for less severe weather in the Metro? It's tough for us non weather folks to interpret these forecasts when the points of view between narratives are different. Some folks like the thrill of severe weather, I can tell, and others would much rather not have severe weather around with all the challenges it brings. If you all could keep that in mind when writing up your forecasts and be very objective in your language so us laymen can be clear about what you're saying, it would be much appreciated. Thanks to all those that look at the models and comment on here, though.

I think everyone on here is just discussing weather.... not making a formal forecast for any specific person or viewpoint. There are plenty of local news stations, crazy people on facebook and other websites like the NWS that will provide a formal, objective forecast for you.

[Rixon75]

I love the weather talk on this thread, but look at the last two posts prior. Can we agree on language/ point of view at least so the forecasts are more clear? You have C_M_25 here saying " not sure why things aren't looking as good in the Metro..." which means not looking good for storm development? And then you have SEMIweather saying " definitely looks like there's going to be fairly rapid upscale growth as opposed to long-lived supercells which is good news." Good news that there's not going to be super cell development? I think I know enough about weather around here to assume this is good news for less severe weather in the Metro? It's tough for us non weather folks to interpret these forecasts when the points of view between narratives are different. Some folks like the thrill of severe weather, I can tell, and others would much rather not have severe weather around with all the challenges it brings. If you all could keep that in mind when writing up your forecasts and be very objective in your language so us laymen can be clear about what you're saying, it would be much appreciated. Thanks to all those that look at the models and comment on here, though.

You have to understand when you are reading weather forums that meteorologists are not hoping for destruction, but they do like to see their life's work in action. It's hard for some in the general public to separate the awe of tornadoes with the personal destruction, but meteorologists do. The fascination of severe weather lured them into studying it for endless hours. Don't take the wording personally.

[Anonymous.]

Lots of lift in the forecast, so much that organized severe weather looks less likely, and more of a storm-palooza is on tap.

It looks like we will have a round of storms develop somewhere across W/NW OK as early as even 3-5pm. This will form into a cluster and fly eastward. Then a second cluster fires off behind the initial development and rides down to the SE into the overnight.

This will result in increased threat of flash-flooding.

[catcherinthewry]

You have to understand when you are reading weather forums that meteorologists are not hoping for destruction, but they do like to see their life's work in action. It's hard for some in the general public to separate the awe of tornadoes with the personal destruction, but meteorologists do. The fascination of severe weather lured them into studying it for endless hours. Don't take the wording personally.

Pandemics are an epidemiologist's life's work in action, but I've never seen an epidemiologist root for one to happen.

[jn1780]

Pandemics are an epidemiologist's life's work in action, but I've never seen an epidemiologist root for one to happen.

Most people with an interest in meteorology are not rooting for a high end several weather outbreak just like most epidemiologist are not rooting for pandemic's to happen. We're talking about the 1% of scenarios when nature shows its ugly side. 99% of the time nature is interesting and fascinating. I'm sure there are psychologists who find serial killers fascinating, but I wouldn't accuse them of wishing for more serial killers.

[SEMIweather]

Agree with Anonymous, most of the short-range convection allowing models are showing an initial round of storms in the early afternoon, followed by the main line moving through early this evening. The initial round of storms should temper the overall severe threat of the main line but I would still expect some hail and wind potential from both rounds (hail being the greater threat with the first round, wind with the second round). If for whatever reason the early storms don’t develop, there would be a more significant hail/wind threat with the main line as the atmosphere wouldn’t be worked over when that line moves through. Tornado threat IMO looks low either way, but can’t completely rule it out.

[SEMIweather]

Also, with regards to earlier posts, would always recommend people check out NWS Norman’s forecasts at weather.gov/oun as I feel they do an excellent job. Much better than the local news stations at balancing awareness vs. hype, although I do feel the local news also provides a valuable service with their nowcasts/live coverage as the events are unfolding. My posts on this thread are strictly opinion/entertainment, as mentioned before I’m fascinated by the range of weather here and just enjoy posting what I feel will happen based on my amateur analysis of the models.

[Pete]

I personally appreciate all the great weather info provided here.

I don't even watch the tv weather because you guys do such a good job of informing everyone.

[PoliSciGuy]

Thankfully SPC pulled back the 10% tornado area that was on earlier outlooks, though the metro is still in the hatched area for wind and hail. Not looking forward to a repeat of what happened in Norman earlier this spring, only on a wider scale.

[kukblue1]

Model run after model run from most models have been showing storm 1-3 metro and again 7-9. I buy more into things when the agree run after run like they have today so far. The first batch could pose more of a punch in terms of hail and the second batch in terms of winds. Tornadoes are too hard to say. If they can interact with a boundary there is a chance. However winds are out of the SW right now (10:30am) which is not favorable for Tornadoes.

[Celebrator]

You have to understand when you are reading weather forums that meteorologists are not hoping for destruction, but they do like to see their life's work in action. It's hard for some in the general public to separate the awe of tornadoes with the personal destruction, but meteorologists do. The fascination of severe weather lured them into studying it for endless hours. Don't take the wording personally.

Not taking anything personally. I just want a bit more clarity with wording so I know the framework from which the poster is working. Just a few more words added on to what I read above would help qualify words like "good." I DO go to the NWS for their forecasts (not FB) and I know they formally talk about communications to the public at their conferences (Rick Smith at NWS has talked a lot about this on Twitter) because it is so critical to get that right--factual, firm and clear but not panic-inducing. This forum is usually great with that and, as I said, I appreciate the amateur mets and their analysis (which seems far from amateur to me). Thank you.

[TheTravellers]

I personally appreciate all the great weather info provided here.

I don't even watch the tv weather because you guys do such a good job of informing everyone.

Ditto. The only time I watch is during an event and I turn on channel 9's radar (with no sound, of course) to see where things are, at least until my power goes out.

[SEMIweather]

Convective initiation already occurring from Elk City down to Altus. This will likely end up being the storms that track across the Metro early this afternoon.

NWS Norman has issued a Flood Watch in anticipation of multiple rounds of heavy rain.

[PoliSciGuy]

Tornado Watch incoming https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0764.html:

Mesoscale Discussion 0764
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 AM CDT Thu May 27 2021

Areas affected...eastern Texas Panhandle...Oklahoma. far southern
Kansas and northwest Arkansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 271629Z - 271730Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop across western
through central Oklahoma by early afternoon and gradually spread
east. Supercells with isolated large hail will be the initial main
threat, but isolated damaging wind and a few tornadoes are also
possible.

DISCUSSION...Latest objective analysis show the atmosphere to be
moderately to strongly unstable (2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) across
western through central OK supported by steep mid-level lapse rates
above rich low-level moisture with surface dewpoints in the low 70s
F. Latest trends in radar show a few showers developing within a
modest warm advection regime in the pre-frontal warm sector across
western OK. While some remnant capping may still exist, convective
inhibition should gradually weaken as temperatures rise into the low
80s F. Rap analysis data show a mid-level jet approaching this
region from the west, and effective bulk shear profiles will
gradually increase to between 40 and 50 kt through the afternoon.
This environment should support discrete supercells as the initial
storm mode with large to very large hail likely. While low-level
hodographs are not particularly large with 0-1 km storm relative
helicity between 100-150 m2/s2 isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled
out given degree of instability and a very moist boundary layer with
relatively low LCLS. Additional storms may develop along the cold
front by late afternoon across southern KS into northern OK and
these will also likely become severe.

[BoulderSooner]

I personally appreciate all the great weather info provided here.

I don't even watch the tv weather because you guys do such a good job of informing everyone.

i will echo this .... this is a great resource .. and really appreciated