General Weather Discussion - January and February 2017

[jn1780]

Schools probably could have had class today as I don't think we will get enough freezing rain to really cause the roads to go downhill until later tonight.

[Anonymous.]

Temps ranging from 27-29 across OKC. That is enough to make bridges sketchy but crews have likely treated most of the bridges in advance.

Short-range models show precipitation becoming heavier along I-44 in the 4-8pm window.

[Anonymous.]

12Z NAM slamming I-44 corridor through Saturday afternoon. Showing convective freezing rain around midnight tonight. Some of the amounts from Woodward to Ponca City, up in far NW to N OK, are devastating.

[educator1953]

Not a thing going on down here at my house in Duncan. Everything dry as can be. Sure hope we get some rain, but I hope we don't get any ice. I remember the ice storms of the past when our electricity was out for a week. Not fun! I don't wish that for anyone!

[LocoAko]

12Z NAM slamming I-44 corridor through Saturday afternoon. Showing convective freezing rain around midnight tonight. Some of the amounts from Woodward to Ponca City, up in far NW to N OK, are devastating.

All three NAMs (12-km, 4-km, and 3-km) are now showing 0.5-1.0"+ of ice in OKC and just NW of there overnight into tomorrow morning. Would certainly be a turn of events... not a trend you want to see last minute.

[Anonymous.]

Just for reference, here is a high-resolution NAM model with the latest data. Showing near 2" of liquid across much of I-44. And this is with temperatures in the 28-30F range. Now that does not mean 2" of ice equivalent, especially considering the rate at which some of it will be falling, But this will certainly impact elevated objects significantly.

[SoonerDave]

Was he skinny Al or Big Al ? Seriously though, I have also heard the national media talking about storm Juniper all week.

I don't think any media outside NBC or the Weather Channel is using the name Juniper...or Jupiter...or whatever else idiot thing they're calling it...really hate that gimmick.

[LakeEffect]

I don't think any media outside NBC or the Weather Channel is using the name Juniper...or Jupiter...or whatever else idiot thing they're calling it...really hate that gimmick.

Amen.

[OkiePoke]

NW OKC - Haven't seen much precipitation get to the ground. Had ice on the vehicles this morning, but not fully covered.

Is this precipitation getting to the ground?

[bradh]

So, basically after sun goes down until lunch tomorrow, look out?

[SoonerDave]

Just for reference, here is a high-resolution NAM model with the latest data. Showing near 2" of liquid across much of I-44. And this is with temperatures in the 28-30F range. Now that does not mean 2" of ice equivalent, especially considering the rate at which some of it will be falling, But this will certainly impact elevated objects significantly.

So would this suggest an amendment to the ice storm warning? It would seem to me if temps below freezing are now on tap plus this change in moisture projections that the ice storm warning boundary would be pushed a lot farther south to cover the metro.....or am I missing something?

[FighttheGoodFight]

Norman was dry this morning. Glad we didn't get hit. Hoping for the same tonight.

[Anonymous.]

NWS will likely discuss upgrade this evening once we see a development location and trend.

[Celebrator]

At least we're supposed to soar above freezing on Sunday! Melting should be rapid. No one's mentioning that bit of silver lining much. At least we're not going to be in the freezer for days following this event, therefore giving relief to trees and power lines.

[OKCRT]

True but if OKC gets 1 inch of ice will there be any trees or power lines standing? That much ice even for just 24 hrs would cause a lot of damage.

They are starting to change the forecast to heavier amounts in OKC area up to 1 inch of ice.

[judysue]

I fully appreciate what a hard call it was for schools like Norman to cancel classes for today. I certainly appeared from TV reports that it would be icy this morning. Out of curiosity only (not complaining) what went a bit wrong?

[jn1780]

I fully appreciate what a hard call it was for schools like Norman to cancel classes for today. I certainly appeared from TV reports that it would be icy this morning. Out of curiosity only (not complaining) what went a bit wrong?

1. Districts made the decision way to early and didnt wait to see what the latest forecast was.
2. They lumped the whole event together without factoring in that the worse conditions will actually occur tonight and not this morning/afternoon.

Ironically, the forecast may be worse than expected if those models for tonight pan out

[Anonymous.]

FRZ rain advisory expanded south and east to encompass group of counties S and E of OKC where the freezing line has hardly regressed NW.

ISW upgrade may be coming tonight for Grady, Canadian, McClain, Cleveland, Oklahoma, and Lincoln counties. High resolution models are continuing to suggest training of heavy waves of freezing rain overnight directly over C OK.

[OKCRT]

I fully appreciate what a hard call it was for schools like Norman to cancel classes for today. I certainly appeared from TV reports that it would be icy this morning. Out of curiosity only (not complaining) what went a bit wrong?

Stubborn High Pressure system moving very slow keeping the storm out west at bay longer than anticipated. Also keeping temps down in the area. Maybe some of the experts could explain better but that's what I get out of the delay.

[judysue]

That makes sense. I was following lots of different sites yesterday and it did sound like it would be icy this morning. I hate it for the districts because they will face criticism, but if they hadn't called off schools and we did have an ice rink they would have been hounded for that too. Tough position to be in.

[riflesforwatie]

All of the OKC metro will be upgraded to an Ice Storm Warning in the next forecast package. 18z guidance 2m temps are still too warm by 3-4F depending on your model of choice. There will be lots of variation from neighborhood to neighborhood in terms of what ice accumulations you can expect, but there should be impactful ice accumulations in various parts of the metro starting this evening and running into Saturday morning.

[Anonymous.]

Visual of the newly upgraded ISW:

[5alive]

[stratosphere]

any idea what time this is all supposed to happen?

[Anonymous.]

The drizzle is already happening. It will continue to increase heading into the evening and we will see waves of rain develop along I-44 and ride up to the NE. Models are suggesting heaviest waves coming into OKC near midnight or shortly after. Embedded convection possible within waves. Again, this will be very localized to C OK, and not everyone who has an OKC address will receive the same amount.