Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - April 2012

[Bunty]

Just wish there was a +1, Like, or Reputation button for this! <3

Then don't complain if your vehicle gets hailed on big time.

[jn1780]

Evening Model runs and their forecast soundings still show a very volatile setup for Saturday. One concerning point is that forecast storm movement is pushed to 45-50 mph. Both are keeping storms off until late in the day which raises the risk for night time tornadoes. With it being dark and fast moving storms, warning lead times will be much lower than we are use to. Stay alert.

Do you think the potential for fast moving storms and night tornados makes the NWS a little bit more likely to issue a high risk for "political reasons". You know, keep the public on their toes.

[Thunder]

If the storms are fast-moving, doesn't it make them more likely to merge together quickly and become one huge destructive straight-line wind storm? I just know from experience that storms moving too fast tend to push the storms together and/or blow over their storm-tops. Storms moving at a much slower pace tend to have the best chance of developing higher storm-tops and producing destructive tornadoes and hail. Is that correct, Brother Venture?

[venture]

Do you think the potential for fast moving storms and night tornados makes the NWS a little bit more likely to issue a high risk for "political reasons". You know, keep the public on their toes.

Ummm....they could probably get the same effect with PDS watches and a moderate risk. No need to go to High just to play CYA at the chance something bad happens.

Look at the profiles right now it is pretty evident that storms will rotate, but there does get to be a point where shear is too strong. So one of the things we'll need to watch is the winds. If we see a lot of backing to the winds, more out of the Southeast at the surface, then we'll get enough spin versus more linear stuff.

I've made several updates to the new website today. Keeping things pretty simple and not over the top, but put out a lot of info. One of the nice pages is the Soundings page under the main menu. It'll have a grid next to it to compare values for those that aren't use to it. I'll probably tweak the number layout some more but it gives a good guide now.

[Thunder]

The outlook is continuing to become more impressive and threatening especially this far ahead with prediction. Its rare for such area to be shaded at least 60% and this is for Saturday.

[Thunder]

I strongly urge everyone to take the time today to grab the basic supplies and First Aid kits at the stores. Start cleaning out the storm cellars and/or closets in the center of the building. Start planning with neighbor to ensure shelters will be available and accessible. Prepare all of your important documents and have them in a safe place. Cancel all of your plans and stay home to track the weather throughout the day. The weather can change in an instant. In a scenario such as this, if you do not have a safe shelter or if you feel uncomfortable, drive west into west Texas to stay behind the storms or drive south into Texas. Call all your family and friends to make sure they are weather-aware and prepared. I don't know what else to say, but hopefully Venture can list precautions and things to do today and Saturday. I just hope that everyone will be safe and survive. This is not a drill.

[Thunder]

We now have a HIGH risk for Saturday. Click on the graphic to enlarge.

[Thunder]

Latest messages before I go to bed.

per ICT AFD ONCE THE MORNING CONVECTION ENDS...FOCUS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO A
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR SAT
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO SET UP ALONG A LINE
FROM KHYS TO NEAR KP28. A COMBINATION OF MODERATE TO HIGH
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST JUST AHEAD OF THIS DRYLINE FROM KSLN TO KICT
WITH MLCAPE VALUES EXPECTED IN THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE. BULK
SHEAR VALUES OF 70 KTS...PERPENDICULAR TO THE DRYLINE AND 0-1 KM
STORM RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES OF 400-500 M2/S2 SUGGEST LARGE
LOOPING HODOGRAPHS...WHICH LOOKS IDEAL FOR SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS
AND STRONG/LONG TRACK TORNADOES. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE HAVING
SOME TROUBLE DEVELOPING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
UNTIL MID LEVEL LIFT INCREASES TOWARDS 00Z/SAT...WITH COVERAGE
EXPECTED TO BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE UNTIL THEN. WITH THIS
SAID...NAM/WRF FORECAST SOUNDING FOR KICT AT 03Z/SAT LOOKS LIKE THE
PROVERBIAL "LOADED GUN"...WITH SUPERCELLS AND A FEW STRONG TORNADOES
LOOKING VERY LIKELY SAT EVENING FROM KSLN TO KICT.

CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST THAT A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST
COULD SEE A TORNADO OUTBREAK SAT EVENING. A LARGE CONCERN EXISTS
THAT THE TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE HOURS AFTER SUNSET
SAT EVENING...AS MLCAPE VALUES REMAIN HIGH AND CIN VALUES REMAIN LOW
WITH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINING HIGH. THIS WOULD KEEP THE
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...INCREASING
THE CHANCE FOR A LONG TRACK TORNADO CONTINUING LONG AFTER DARK.
STUDIES HAVE SHOWN THAT TORNADOES AFTER DARK SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOSS OF LIFE. SPC COORDINATED WITH THE LOCAL
OFFICES AND THEY HAVE GONE WITH A RARE DAY2 HIGH RISK ACROSS THE
AREA.

Venture will have his chat room up and running. If you want an invite to be alerted when its time, PM your email address and he will send out an email to everyone when its time to be on guard.

[Thunder]

Here is an interesting article referencing the outbreak on April 26, 1991. Even though it may be early and surprising to most people, do not be fooled! An outbreak in April can be as destructive as an outbreak in May. A well known storm chaser compared that day to this Saturday's just now on Facebook. Scott Nordstrom looked up that date and found the article and posted with his belief of the potential that we may be seeing unfold.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tsa/?n=weather-event_1991apr26

Scottie asked someone else about it and to compare. He was told that this Saturday sounds way worst.

You can follow him on Facebook (Scott Nordstrom). He posts many weather bulletins, conversations, resources, news..everything. He's a storm chaser and also work for Red Cross. Right now, he resides in Kansas. He previously lived in Norman. Scottie does venture into Oklahoma sometime. He is a very serious man and always remain calm regarding weather.

Lets just pray and hope that this Saturday will not become an outcome of that. I will pass on messages from Scottie each time he post, so that you all can have better understanding and have early preparedness.

[jn1780]

Just to keep things in perspective.......

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST IS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. MANY OF
THE MODELS DO NOT DEVELOP NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE DRYLINE.
IN SPITE OF THIS...THE MODELS DIMINISH THE CAP ACROSS THE SRN AND
CNTRL PLAINS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON SO THIS BRINGS THE MODELS INTO
QUESTION. IN ADDITION...THE MODELS DRIVE A BAND OF LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT ACROSS CNTRL KS DURING THE EARLY EVENING SUGGESTING MANY
STORMS SHOULD INITIATE WITH STORMS INITIATING SWD WITH TIME EARLY
SATURDAY EVENING AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. THESE FACTORS
COMBINED WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F AND VERY
FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD PRODUCE AND ENVIRONMENT
FAVORABLE FOR A TORNADO OUTBREAK. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH WFOS
WICHITA...NORMAN...TOPEKA...TULSA AND DODGE CITY...A HIGH RISK WILL
BE ISSUED DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH-END LIFE THREATENING EVENT
ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS.

Still a lot of uncertainity in the forecast.

[ou48A]

From a historical perspective this is the earliest high risk ever issued by SPC

[SoonerDave]

Just to keep things in perspective.......



Still a lot of uncertainity in the forecast.

Is the phrase "high-end life threatening event" part of the "experimental" new jargon that NOAA is "testing?"

[venture]

Is the phrase "high-end life threatening event" part of the "experimental" new jargon that NOAA is "testing?"

Most of that "new" wording is for the warning texts, not the SPC outlooks or forecast discussions. Coverage really isn't expected to be all that great right now going by the models. They've been consistent in this. Right now we just need to make sure we all have a plan in place and be prepared. Not freak out.

[venture]

Now to get things a bit more focused, lets worry about today. We are running a slight risk today for most of Oklahoma, except far SE. There is a hatched enhanced risk of strong tornadoes today over the same area as well. HRRR is forecasting initiation to begin around 4PM in Central Oklahoma. Storms will quickly lift North and East. SPC has hinted at a Moderate Risk upgrade for today in a later outlook due to the strong tornado threat.

...WRN/NRN OK AND SRN KS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...
THERE ARE SOME POTENTIAL COMPLICATING FACTORS TO CONSIDER IN THE
FORECAST THIS MORNING...MAINLY RELATED TO SOME SHORT-TERM MODEL
FORECASTS OF CONVECTION BEGINNING BY 15-18Z IN SRN OK/N TX. RECENT
NAM RUNS SHOW A TYPICAL RESPONSE OF THE BMJ CONVECTIVE SCHEME TO
MIDLEVEL MOISTENING...AND A CORRESPONDINGLY ERRATIC CONVECTIVE
SIGNAL...BUT THIS EARLY MODELED CONVECTION APPEARS TO HAVE LITTLE
NEGATIVE IMPACT ON THE STORM EVOLUTION LATER THIS EVENING.
CONVERSELY...THE LATEST RUC RUNS SHOW A HUGE AREA OF EARLY
CONVECTION THAT REDUCES CAPE AND ALSO IMPACTS THE LLJ RESPONSE THIS
EVENING /SRH FORECASTS ARE HALF THE VALUES OF NAM FORECASTS/.
MEANWHILE...THE CONVECTION-ALLOWING NSSL ARW AND HRRR RUNS DO NOT
EMPHASIZE THE EARLY CONVECTION...AND SUPPORT THE SCENARIO FAVORING
LATE EVENING SUPERCELLS. GIVEN ONLY A VERY SUBTLE SPEED MAX
EMERGING OVER W TX/SE NM THIS MORNING...THE EXCESSIVE MORNING
CONVECTION FORECASTS APPEAR SUSPECT.

OTHER THAN MINOR /DIFFICULT TO TRACK/ SPEED MAXIMA WITHIN THE BROAD
CYCLONIC BELT OF MIDLEVEL FLOW...NO OBVIOUS SYNOPTIC WAVES ARE
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR ACROSS OK/KS TODAY.
HOWEVER...SURFACE HEATING AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE STALLED
DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD WEAKEN CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND ALLOW
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SW/W CENTRAL OK FROM 21-00Z. THE
ENVIRONMENT BY THIS TIME WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH MLCAPE OF
2000-2500 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 45-50 KT. THE INITIAL
SUPERCELLS WILL POSE A RISK FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
DAMAGING WINDS. THE TORNADO RISK SHOULD ACTUALLY INCREASE IN THE
00-03Z TIME FRAME AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW BACKS AND STRENGTHENS IN
RESPONSE TO HIGH PLAINS CYCLOGENESIS. THE RATE OF INCREASE AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION FOR THIS
EVENING...WITH THE NAM THE MOST AGGRESSIVE OF ALL THE SHORT-TERM
MODELS. THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SCENARIO SUPPORTS A SIGNIFICANT TORNADO
RISK WELL AFTER DARK...WHILE MODEL CONSENSUS IS NOT QUITE SO
FAVORABLE. AS A RESULT...WILL ADD A SIGNIFICANT TORNADO RISK
AREA...BUT WILL DEFER ANY POTENTIAL NEED FOR AN OUTLOOK UPGRADE TO
LATER OUTLOOKS...WHICH WILL HAVE THE BENEFIT OF SORTING OUT MANY OF
THE UNCERTAINTIES PRESENT THIS MORNING.

[SoonerDave]

Most of that "new" wording is for the warning texts, not the SPC outlooks or forecast discussions. Coverage really isn't expected to be all that great right now going by the models. They've been consistent in this. Right now we just need to make sure we all have a plan in place and be prepared. Not freak out.

Agree completely, Venture. I think the weather folks have to be very careful about using really strident language like that, because it tends to tip people towards panic, not preparation, and we have enough hysteria guys in the broadcast weather community (and the term "broadcast" seems to grow with the Internet every day). The flip side is that when/if they do issue statements with that kind of language, but something happens such that the storms don't quite manifest themselves as predicted, people will not take proper heed to similar future warnings.

Bottom line is for everyone to be aware, be smart, be aware that its Spring in Oklahoma, and just pay attention to what's going on as the day/evening unfolds.

[Roadhawg]

Then don't complain if your vehicle gets hailed on big time.

His vehicle is crashed so it doesn't matter

[RedDollar]

Most of that "new" wording is for the warning texts, not the SPC outlooks or forecast discussions. Coverage really isn't expected to be all that great right now going by the models. They've been consistent in this. Right now we just need to make sure we all have a plan in place and be prepared. Not freak out.

Are you saying ....... that I can cancel my appt with my attorney to update my last will and testament ??

[bandnerd]

What ever happened to Thunder?
He was always posting "stuff" on these weather threads

You just had to ask, didn't you?

[venture]

Reminder that the chat room is running at the new address: http://www.weatherspotlight.com/ or via http://www.weatherspotlight.com/chat.html

I'll be in when I can, but most of the twitter feeds are rolling to keep information flowing.

[ou48A]

I am getting a strong feeling that Stoops would rather scrimmage Monday in private.
OU should move the scrimmage up an hour or more



http://oklahoma.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=1354438

Has Bob Stoops cursed OU's annual Red & White Game? With ominous weather moving in this weekend, Stoops was asked about predicted tornadic activity Saturday throughout Oklahoma.

Weather which could be cause for cancellation of the Sooners' annual spring football game.
You seen how often those guys are wrong?" said Stoops of weather men. "Sorry! Not to offend anybody. If I had the same percentage they got, I wouldn't have a job."

Stoops has been around the Sooner state long enough to know weather is serious business. It's not often anyone goes up against Gary England and company. Stoops did say if weather becomes a factor, OU's annual Red & White Game could be canceled completely.

"If things were so bad and if we had to, we'd cancel it and we'd just have our own scrimmage on Monday," he said.

And that scrimmage would happen in private, like every other OU practice this spring.

Stoops did say that the Red&White Game will be played in rainy conditions, as long as they weren't dangerous conditions.

"As long as it's reasonable. We're not going to endanger kids or people or fans if there's anything that's bad, but otherwise we'll go at it," said Stoops.

[ou48A]

You just had to ask, didn't you?

LOL

I know....... LOL

[ou48A]

“Since 1984 a High Risk day has (unofficially) averaged ~41 tornadoes & ~11 deaths!”

[FritterGirl]

Agree completely, Venture. I think the weather folks have to be very careful about using really strident language like that, because it tends to tip people towards panic, not preparation, and we have enough hysteria guys in the broadcast weather community (and the term "broadcast" seems to grow with the Internet every day). The flip side is that when/if they do issue statements with that kind of language, but something happens such that the storms don't quite manifest themselves as predicted, people will not take proper heed to similar future warnings.

Bottom line is for everyone to be aware, be smart, be aware that its Spring in Oklahoma, and just pay attention to what's going on as the day/evening unfolds.

Hence why I look here for Venture's and others' comments and warnings instead of turning on the TV. If I want bad news, I want it delivered straight and to the point. I don't need soap opera-esque drama from a guy in a sparkly tie.

[Roadhawg]

you just had to ask, didn't you?

red alert

[BrettM2]

red alert

incorrect