October 2024 - General Weather Discussion

[SEMIweather]

Another very bad fire day unfolding. The two closest to OKC at the moment appear to be in NE Edmond and in between Cashion and Crescent. The latter one looks huge on radar.

[kukblue1]

Haha, I was joking. The jinx comment was based off an earlier comment.

LOL I got it. I think the term you were looking for that really triggers people is BUST. Just saying. I do think no way we miss out Sunday/Monday though. Tomorrow east metro could get rain west metro gets nothing it might be that close to where storms form. We need to the front/dryline to slow down a bit more but this time of year they tend to move in faster then forecasted.

[C_M_25]

I know we get a lot of wind around here but this has got to be in the top 10 of consecutive days with winds over 20 mph. Crazy…

[kukblue1]

So many Questions still for tomorrow? How quick is the front? How quickly do storm build right over OKC as it stands right now? Does a storm form near Stillwater and near Chickasaw and remain ahead of the front which would be a problem which HRRR hints at?

[Bunty]

Heavy rain expected in coming days. https://www.stwnewspress.com/news/he...624399156.html

[Anonymous.]

So many Questions still for tomorrow? How quick is the front? How quickly do storm build right over OKC as it stands right now? Does a storm form near Stillwater and near Chickasaw and remain ahead of the front which would be a problem which HRRR hints at?

Storms will first develop this evening in NW OK and back-build down into WC OK.

Latest NAM hot off the press:

[kukblue1]

OKC North sight Tornado is there. Especially between I-35 and i-44. I have a bad gut feeling with the OKC Metro gets no rain drought leads to more drought. Something will happen where especially west Metro won't see anything. I really hope I'm wrong cuz I'm desperate for rain out here

[BG918]

OKC North sight Tornado is there. Especially between I-35 and i-44. I have a bad gut feeling with the OKC Metro gets no rain drought leads to more drought. Something will happen where especially west Metro won't see anything. I really hope I'm wrong cuz I'm desperate for rain out here

If OKC doesn't see any rain today there are good chances this weekend into next week. GFS and EURO have been trending toward widespread 2-3"+. A narrow corridor will likely set up somewhere with 4"+ totals, too early to know if that's further north into KS, along the I-44 corridor or further SE.

[BB37]

Looks like a line of showers and Thunderstorms starting to form from Wichita south into NC OK, with a cell trying to form around Fairview in NW OK.

[kukblue1]

Risk has gone up for North Central Oklahoma. Possible strong tornadoes. Please don't let your guard down cause it's the end of October. Line forms further west now with all the runs. Metro might get some action also.

[Pete]

Downpour at my house that only lasted a few minutes.

It's the first rain I've seen in two months.

[kukblue1]

Need to start a November thread soon for the severe weather outbreak on Sunday. After we get through today

[Mississippi Blues]

Downpour at my house that only lasted a few minutes.

It's the first rain I've seen in two months.

Same. I’m about two miles northwest of you.

[Anonymous.]

Tornado watch is being written up right now. Storms are firing along NW OK and some cells are going up out on I-40 west of Elk City.

MD mentions linear storm formation is likely heading into this evening, with biggest hail and tornado threat to be on the southern edge near I-40 as cell growth will remain more discrete early on.

[baralheia]

From https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0694.html



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 694
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
205 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
South-Central Kansas
Western into Central/North-Central Oklahoma

* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 205 PM
until 900 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
to 75 mph possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY...Developing supercells will pose a threat for large to very
large hail initially (up to 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter). Later this
afternoon into the evening, the threat for a few tornadoes will
increase. A strong tornado or two appears possible, especially early
this evening. Scattered severe/damaging winds will also become a
concern later this evening as thunderstorms eventually form into a
line.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles
east and west of a line from 35 miles northeast of Hutchinson KS to
35 miles east of Clinton OK. For a complete depiction of the watch
see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 693...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 24035.

...Gleason

[Bunty]

Here is current Oklahoma radar:



Tornado watch in yellow until 9 pm. It includes Oklahoma City.

[bison34]

Hopefully that area to the east of the current storms fills in nicely, so we get much-needed rain here.

[kukblue1]

Tornado watch has been expanded now includes all the OKC Metro. 3pm update also moved OKC metro to enhanced risk.

[baralheia]

From https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0694.html



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 694
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
205 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
South-Central Kansas
Western into Central/North-Central Oklahoma

* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 205 PM
until 900 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
to 75 mph possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY...Developing supercells will pose a threat for large to very
large hail initially (up to 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter). Later this
afternoon into the evening, the threat for a few tornadoes will
increase. A strong tornado or two appears possible, especially early
this evening. Scattered severe/damaging winds will also become a
concern later this evening as thunderstorms eventually form into a
line.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles
east and west of a line from 35 miles northeast of Hutchinson KS to
35 miles east of Clinton OK. For a complete depiction of the watch
see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 693...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 24035.

...Gleason

WW0694 now also includes Cleveland, McClain, and Grady Counties.

[SEMIweather]

7:30-9:30 p.m. is looking to be the main threat for the Metro.

[SoonerDave]

7:30-9:30 p.m. is looking to be the main threat for the Metro.

Think it will QLCS out by then ?

[SEMIweather]

Think it will QLCS out by then ?

Not sure. There will be a tornado threat regardless as the low level jet really kicks in around 6:00 p.m.

[baralheia]

With the current storm movement, I think the Frederick to Lawton area is where to watch for stuff that will eventually impact the metro. Right now, showers south of the current line - down near Snyder, Tipton, and Frederick - seem to be really struggling... but I think we'll have to see what happens as the line pushes east into more energetic air. We're already seeing a little of this - there is a cell between Hobart and Carnegie that was struggling earlier, but has begun rapidly intensifying as it pushes to the NE.

[C_M_25]

The storms are teasing us right now.

[Bunty]

The storms are teasing us right now.

The heavy part of the storm is taking it's time to get to Stillwater where it's lightly rained .02", so far, along with the front passing and strong north winds bringing temps down to the mid 60s. In county to the west, it's rained around 2.5" with a flood advisory in effect. If storm movement has slowed down that should help with the rain.