May 2023 - General Weather Discussion

[Anonymous.]

Pretty high parameters for that watch.

Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
Mod (50%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes
Mod (40%)
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
Mod (40%)
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
Low (20%)
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
High (70%)
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
Mod (50%)
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
High (90%)

[SoonerDave]

Temperature here in my weather station actually dropped a couple of degrees after hitting 77 very briefly

Now showing 75 and continued thick cloud deck.

[stratosphere]

Cloudy and 74 over by Lake Hefner

[C_M_25]

Well, the clouds are clearing out quickly. Just in time for some last minute warming. The delay on the low gave us some extra time here. Wondering if that bites us a bit here in the sense that we could have more instability moving in before things kick off.

Edit: of course the delay will allow time for the dry line to push east and result in us getting screwed on much needed rain again. We’ll see I guess.

[yukong]

Well, the clouds are clearing out quickly. Just in time for some last minute warming. The delay on the low gave us some extra time here. Wondering if that bites us a bit here in the sense that we could have more instability moving in before things kick off.

Edit: of course the delay will allow time for the dry line to push east and result in us getting screwed on much needed rain again. We’ll see I guess.

Things clearing out quickly up near Piedmont. Temperature has risen from 75 to 78 in about 5-10 minutes.

[PoliSciGuy]

Well, the clouds are clearing out quickly. Just in time for some last minute warming. The delay on the low gave us some extra time here. Wondering if that bites us a bit here in the sense that we could have more instability moving in before things kick off.

Edit: of course the delay will allow time for the dry line to push east and result in us getting screwed on much needed rain again. We’ll see I guess.

Also makes it more likely the storms get over the metro just as the LLJ kicks in around sunset, which ain't great

[SoonerDave]

Radar out west still looks quiet at the moment

[C_M_25]

Cumulus towers going up south of Fairview and north of Lawton. Looks like stuff might try and start to get going here.

[C_M_25]

I’m seeing 79 at my house in NW okc. Temps are going up quickly.

[DowntownMan]

Suns coming out in nw okc. Clouds clearing.

[liirogue]

Pretty high parameters for that watch.

Out of curiosity, where did that come from? I can't find it on the previously linked tornado watch.

[SoonerDave]

Looks like one cell firing up NE of Wichita Falls....

.

[Anonymous.]

Out of curiosity, where did that come from? I can't find it on the previously linked tornado watch.

Go to the watch on the SPC webpage and go to 'probabilities' near the top of the watch.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0213.html

[PoliSciGuy]

Got our first severe warning SE of Lawton

[Anonymous.]

Storm coming up from the RR and heading between Lawton/Duncan is going to be the first spinner. There is about 100 chasers on it.

[C_M_25]

Models are really leaning into these storms going south and east of the city. That low slowed down just a little too much I suspect.

[Anonymous.]

Mark Hill has great shot of the wallcloud on that one SW of Duncan cell.

[PoliSciGuy]

Yeah this thing is gonna produce

[chssooner]

I don't know who in Oklahoma City pissed off mother nature, but we keep missing out on rain. Not sure where Hefner can pull from now, because Canton is even lower.

[floyd the barber]

Looks like a false alarm tonight.

[jn1780]

Looks like a false alarm tonight.

You say that and all of the sudden the dayline starts unzipping. A storm just popped up north of El Reno.

[SoonerDave]

Line north of the big storm off Lawton is getting organized around Chickasha, heading NE, and looks like it is a good candidate to head toward OKC in the next hour or two.

[Anonymous.]

Chickasha storm has a decent lowering. As these mature into sunset. Could see a quick spinup.

[PoliSciGuy]

Yeah once the LLJ kicks in it could provide enough sheer for these to produce something in the next couple hours

[Anonymous.]

TOR warning coming for Tuttle.