Covid-19 in OKC (coronavirus)

[SoonerDave]

The numbers continue to show a much lower daily case rate than that used in the OHD peak projections, which were in the 250-300 and up range IIRC. This would hopefully imply their estimated peak of 9,300 will prove quite high. Reaching that number by May 1 now would require a daily delta in the range of 430, and it's yet to be remotely that high thus far.

[kukblue1]

The number of hospitalizations is good but the daily numbers keep going up. I just don't see how this is a good thing. I'm sure many have recovered but how are you going to open things back up when 100 plus people a day are coming back positive?

[FighttheGoodFight]

I am hoping a lot of people stayed in for Easter. It is a big family holiday and I hope it doesn't cause in uptick in the next week.

[Jersey Boss]

The hospitalization rate is encouraging.

Still don't know if the hospitalizations include all the federal hospitals in the state and whether the deaths include nursing homes and veteran centers.

[SoonerDave]

The big takeaway from these numbers is the growth rate in positives is decreasing. As we get more and more testing data back, and our testing "throughput" as it were increases, we're getting an increasingly better feel for the real shape of data. No, it is not at all perfect - the exact number of tests being returned each day still isn't entirely clear, we don't have numbers on repeat tests, and we have numbers still influenced by early rules requiring specific symptoms. But the data is better now than it was.

I've done some of my own analysis of the numbers from the ODH peak projection chart and am even more thoroughly convinced now than I was before that their projections are entirely too severe. From their chart, starting 3/22 through today, they are projecting an almost constantly increasing daily growth rate - one that started higher than the earliest actual rate and continuing through today at just under 3x the actual number of new cases.

A three-day moving average of actual new cases going back to 3/22 shows a peak of 146, and that included the one single worst day so far (171 new cases). The ODH projections for that day were in a range from 200-220. (I am having to interpolate data from their graph legend, which only shows every-other-day dates and no actual numbers). As of today, which has an actual daily delta of 99 new cases (and a 3-day moving average of 92), the ODH projection expects 275 new cases!

The new case projection used by the ODH simply isn't matching reality, and often by a factor of 2-3x. And I also notice that their model uses an infection basis of 3.8, rather than the 2.5 that I have seen in most similar types of projections.

As of today (4/13), for their current scenario of 9,300 projected cases by May 1 to be realized (17 days), we would have to average 425 cases per day each day between now and then - a number that is 3x higher than the worst 3-day moving average to date, and 2.5x higher than the worst single-day new case delta to date (171 on 4/4).

THis is further reinforced by the fact that our current new-case doubling rate is now only fractionally under 10 days (2069 on 4/13, compared to 988 on 4/3 or 1159 on 4/4). If we project that doubling rate to persist (which isn't supported with the current daily case data), doubling for two iterations over the next 20 days would still bring us to 8,276 cases on May 3. However, the current 3-day rolling average of 92 new cases would require *22* days to double - even the worst rolling average day in the last three (114.7) would require *18* days to double - and even then, to a number less than *half* the projected 9,300 cases (4,138).

I realize this is very long, and I haven't even added analyses for hospitalizations or deaths, but my overall point is to encourage everyone that hears that ODH projection peak data presented as gospel should be very wary of that report. The experiential data we are seeing on a day-to-day basis, imperfect though it may be, is showing us a picture that is not consistent with ODH projections. We have a lower daily case rate, a steady or slightly declining average delta case rate, and an overall delta well below their projections. It would be my hope that the folks at ODH, who I'm sure are trying their best to keep this data straight, might revisit this projection.

[Pete]

I just went out today (to Sam's for necessities) for the first time in several days and the traffic on May Avenue was quite heavy.

A friend from California passed through OKC on Friday and said there was way more traffic here than in Southern Cal.

I think people here are doing a poor job of staying home in general.

[kukblue1]

I just went out today (to Sam's for necessities) for the first time in several days and the traffic on May Avenue was quite heavy.

A friend from California passed through OKC on Friday and said there was way more traffic here than in Southern Cal.

I think people here are doing a poor job of staying home in general.

l-a

When my friends tell me that Braums Drive thru has 350 cars already by 5pm today your probably right. That is just for one not so busy store either. I wonder how many chick-fil-a is pumping thru a day. Not that the risk is low but there still a risk there.

[Bill Robertson]

I just went out today (to Sam's for necessities) for the first time in several days and the traffic on May Avenue was quite heavy.

A friend from California passed through OKC on Friday and said there was way more traffic here than in Southern Cal.

I think people here are doing a poor job of staying home in general.

I’ve thought that there’s a lot more traffic than I would consider “essential“. I have tried to be absolutely compliant. For three weeks I’ve gone to work. Stop for gas and groceries on the way to or from work. Went to Johnnies once one weekend and Chilis once on another. Other than that I’ve been at home. My wife only goes to work, nowhere else. I’ve ordered more for delivery on Walmart and Amazon in three weeks than in three years. I am finding however that I’m not made for this. I’m going majorly stir crazy. But I’ll pull through fir the cause.

[kukblue1]

I’ve thought that there’s a lot more traffic than I would consider “essential“. I have tried to be absolutely compliant. For three weeks I’ve gone to work. Stop for gas and groceries on the way to or from work. Went to Johnnies once one weekend and Chilis once on another. Other than that I’ve been at home. My wife only goes to work, nowhere else. I’ve ordered more for delivery on Walmart and Amazon in three weeks than in three years. I am finding however that I’m not made for this. I’m going majorly stir crazy. But I’ll pull through fir the cause.

Same here. First time I ever used Walmart pick up. In the last month I have gotten Gas once, did walmart pick up and chick-fil-a same day, and used Walgreen drive thru for some prescriptions. Work and back that's been it. Roomie who is older have been to braums once for milk. I'm lucky my job is a one person at a time office. We wait outside for the other person to leave after they have cleaned everything then we go in.

[SoonerDave]

After using WalMart and Sam's grocery apps, which admittedly included one bad experience, I doubt I'll go back into a grocery store until all this is over. Never get out of your car, they place items in trunk, and then you wash/wipe them as needed when you get home. Zero contact with, well, anyone. Last trip to the store lasted us 10 days, IIRC.

[Edmond Hausfrau]

I just went out today (to Sam's for necessities) for the first time in several days and the traffic on May Avenue was quite heavy.

A friend from California passed through OKC on Friday and said there was way more traffic here than in Southern Cal.

I think people here are doing a poor job of staying home in general.

Agree. Went out in a car for first time in 2 weeks. Lots of people out at 4pm on a Monday. Yikes.

[mkjeeves]

Three weeks travel outside the home...

One visit to the drive through or pick up at Homeland Pharmacy, Walgreens Pharmacy, Walmart Fresh Market, Target. All of those were in the last week. Neither of us have been inside a building other than our house.

3 trips to Lake Overholser for exercise. I live close by.

Sunday drive a week ago from west OKC to downtown and back to look at the empty streets, Scissortail and what might be blooming. We didn't stop or get out anywhere.

[Snowman]

Agree. Went out in a car for first time in 2 weeks. Lots of people out at 4pm on a Monday. Yikes.

That is the beginning of the evening rush in commuter traffic, which is way down from it's average

[mugofbeer]

My sister says the COVID numbers at her hospital in the OKC metro are way down and they have significant vacancies. Good for COVID but bad for their operating revenue. She's starting to feel that, while understanding the need for an abundance of caution, the state-official peak needs to be moved behind us. Keep fingers crossed.

Colorado has acknowledged we are at or past the peak, now.

[Dustin]

Reported US coronavirus deaths:

Feb. 13: 0 deaths
Mar. 13: 49 deaths
Apr. 13: 23,608 deaths

[soonerguru]

I just went out today (to Sam's for necessities) for the first time in several days and the traffic on May Avenue was quite heavy.

A friend from California passed through OKC on Friday and said there was way more traffic here than in Southern Cal.

I think people here are doing a poor job of staying home in general.

My friends from the West Coast (Oregon), who recently moved here by choice and are still excited about it, have openly asked me if they made a mistake. They have been horrified to see so many Oklahomans out there acting like nothing is going on on family shopping trips to Lowe's, etc.

[soonerguru]

I just went out today (to Sam's for necessities) for the first time in several days and the traffic on May Avenue was quite heavy.

A friend from California passed through OKC on Friday and said there was way more traffic here than in Southern Cal.

I think people here are doing a poor job of staying home in general.

My friends from the West Coast (Oregon), who recently moved here by choice and are still excited about it, have openly asked me if they made a mistake. They have been horrified to see so many Oklahomans out there acting like nothing is going on on family shopping trips to Lowe's, etc.

[soonerguru]

Reported US coronavirus deaths:

Feb. 13: 0 deaths
Mar. 13: 49 deaths
Apr. 13: 23,608 deaths

Bill Bennett said this is no big deal at all.

[BBatesokc]

All this criticism that people are still out and about. Personally, I look at the reality of it.... People are still out in droves and the numbers are nowhere near the doomsday predictions that they were saying we'd certainly have if we were not completely compliant. It may be my way of being in denial, but I'm not ashamed to admit I'm out on public (sans gloves and mask) in some form or another daily. I practice practical social distancing and stay out of individuals personal space, bring my own wipes and hand sanitizer. I monitor my vitals 2-3x a day and I've even been tested (negative). I go back to my gut feeling I posted when all this started....

3/20/2020: I may be in 100% denial. I just believe from what all I've read this virus has been here for a couple of months and we are simply not seeing the surge of deaths you'd think we should have, based on all the media and governmental hype. I hope I'm just full of dumb luck and I'm right. If I'm not, well, there wasn't really anything I could have done differently and my opinion has zero impact either way. I read all the editorials describing people just like me, who have their doubts about the fatality of it all, but I just can't kick that gnawing at my gut,

[OKC Guy]

All this criticism that people are still out and about. Personally, I look at the reality of it.... People are still out in droves and the numbers are nowhere near the doomsday predictions that they were saying we'd certainly have if we were not completely compliant. It may be my way of being in denial, but I'm not ashamed to admit I'm out on public (sans gloves and mask) in some form or another daily. I practice practical social distancing and stay out of individuals personal space, bring my own wipes and hand sanitizer. I monitor my vitals 2-3x a day and I've even been tested (negative). I go back to my gut feeling I posted when all this started....

Whats strange is rush hour remains low traffic wise on highways and turnpike yet in city streets its still quite a bit of traffic, not as much drop off. So people are not working but are out doing stuff.

And the $1,200 deposits will mostly be made Wed which means more getting out and buying.

Good observation on it not being as bad as doomsday predictions.

[PhiAlpha]

My friends from the West Coast (Oregon), who recently moved here by choice and are still excited about it, have openly asked me if they made a mistake. They have been horrified to see so many Oklahomans out there acting like nothing is going on on family shopping trips to Lowe's, etc.

Then they are more than a little dramatic. If they are so concerned, they can stay home themselves and be fine. The numbers seem to indicate what we’re doing is working.

[Rover]

Some people don’t understand that being lucky and being smart aren’t the same thing.

These anecdotes remind me of the people who go through traffic at higher speed than the others, cutting in front of people and causing wrecks behind them as they pass through. They never know the havoc they create. Then they tell their friends “heck, traffic wasn’t bad.. everyone should just drive the way I do and we’d be just fine.”

[soonerguru]

3.5% is a number almost out of thin air ...

No. It was a little low. Sorry. As of today 583,000 confirmed US cases with 23,000 deaths, so about four percent of confirmed cases are leading to death. The number is slightly higher in OK: 4.7 %.

[BBatesokc]

Some people don’t understand that being lucky and being smart aren’t the same thing.

These anecdotes remind me of the people who go through traffic at higher speed than the others, cutting in front of people and causing wrecks behind them as they pass through. They never know the havoc they create. Then they tell their friends “heck, traffic wasn’t bad.. everyone should just drive the way I do and we’d be just fine.”

Your own anecdote doesn't reflect reality.... People ARE going about their day locally and yet there is no "havoc" in their wake. If you think these numbers locally are havoc, then don't Google death rates of virtually ANYTHING else - you'll never go outside.

[Snowman]

No. It was a little low. Sorry. As of today 583,000 confirmed US cases with 23,000 deaths, so about four percent of confirmed cases are leading to death. The number is slightly higher in OK: 4.7 %.

It is almost pointless to bring up that percentage in Oklahoma due to systemic under counting anything but the worst cases