Covid-19 in OKC (coronavirus)

[OKC Guy]

Thanks for this list. I'll be sure to try and not catch cancer or a car accident from the guy sitting next to me on the bus.

My point of the list is it doesn’t have to either/or. We can still use precautions yet start opening economy. The problem I find is people can’t have honest discussions without being labeled (in regards to deaths). No death is good. But the cure can also be worse than the problem too. Would we shut down all traffic in the country due to car deaths? Or shut down for annual flu? No, we use precautions.

You will start hearing more and more about deaths caused by staying home and people running out of money or losing their business. Domestic abuse is ramped up by money problems and so is suicide. I posted Mar domestics from OKC year over year and it was markedly increased this Mar. And we didn’t even start distancing until mid-late Mar.

We will have to find a compromise soon and it will take discussions at high levels to find our best path.

[OKC Guy]

Here’s a great example of the other toll isolation is having:


Meet the Press
@MeetThePress
WATCH: Suicide prevention hotline calls spike amid pandemic.

@PattersonNBC
: In Los Angeles, they are "seeing an incredible uptick in the number of calls related to COVID. In February, there were 20 calls or so. That number has increased exponentially ... to 1800+."

https://mobile.twitter.com/MeetThePr...73281823080448

[mugofbeer]

How would you feel telling a dying person "Sorry you can't get this treatment that might actually work because we're trying something that we know doesn't, just in case it's different this time!"

Because it is proven to have an effect on some people. It was being used overseas before COVID took hold here and lve provided the link on here to a Dr. in Denver used (as of 4 days ago) 12 of his patients, all of whom showed a reversal of symptoms. This simply isn't something off of a Sharknado movie but a treatment that has some effect.

If authorities want to say to doctors to prescribe it if they see fit or upon patient request, then give it! In states like New York which has prevented the average hospital Doctor from prescribing it is just simply wrong and could be costing lives.

[mugofbeer]

Until you can get quick results from testing, you will probably need to stay away from these people well into 2021.

Tests are out shortly cutting wait time to minutes. They just need to be approved, manufactured in bulk and distributed.

Personally, as a 60+, if a reliable treatment is created to keep me from dying, l would be happy. I go out with the fear of the flu because l know my chances of dying are very low. Just greatly reduce COVID deathsvi older folks and it becomes an acceptable risk.

[Jersey Boss]

Thanks for this list. I'll be sure to try and not catch cancer or a car accident from the guy sitting next to me on the bus.

Your post is a great example of why those in leadership can't just declare victory. The public has to accept the decision based on hard facts. The mayor can open the restaurants but he can't mandate asses in seats.

[BBatesokc]

I previously posted that I had received a Rapid Test from a clinic in Moore (got my results in 10 minutes). One member here even seemed to question that reality.

KFOR did a story on the clinic today. The clinic has two locations (Norman and Moore).

Story: Rapid Testing from Antibodies can Show if you Already Recovered from COVID-19. https://kfor.com/health/coronavirus/...from-covid-19/

Body: "NORMAN, Okla.- A local urgent care has been administering antibody tests that not only possibly show if you currently have COVID-19, but also if you’ve recovered from it.

“We were able to get this test because we are partnered up with a lab that is highly complex,” said Hussein Torbati, PA-C, Classen Urgent Care Clinic.

Torbati says the simple test is just another way to test for COVID-19. With just a small prick of the finger, that’s it.

“It’s essentially one drop of blood,” Torbati said.

The test detects two types of antibodies to determine if someone currently has COVID-19, or if they had it before and since recovered.

But not all clinics can perform this test. Torbati says because it’s classified as a “high complexity test” you would normally have to get tested at a lab or a hospital.

“We really, really would love the government to make an executive order to make these tests waived under complexity level so it can be available in all clinics,” Torbati said.

The FDA says in the early days of infection, while the body’s immune response is kicking in, “antibodies may not be detected.” That’s why the antibodies test should not be used as a sole basis to diagnosis COVID-19. You should still get a PCR nasal swab test to be sure.

Torbati says some of the people he has tested had positive results but showed no symptoms of the virus.

News 4’s Jacklyn Chappell and photojournalist Laura Hess did the test. Thankfully, both their results were negative.

“It was as simple as checking someone’s blood sugar, with results almost as fast,” said Ross Pelton, who also had the test done.

Pelton got the same test done at a metro lab. His results were also negative. He was hoping if he already had the virus, he could donate plasma to help other COVID-19 patients fight it off.

“Anyone who suspects they might have already had coronavirus without any symptoms should go ahead and get this test and find out for sure,” Pelton said.

“If we could test as many people, if not all the people, and start isolating the ones that are positive, we could actually make a difference,” Torbati said."

[TheTravellers]

...
“Anyone who suspects they might have already had coronavirus without any symptoms should go ahead and get this test and find out for sure,” Pelton said.
...

Why would someone suspect they had it if they never had any symptoms?

[BBatesokc]

Why would someone suspect they had it if they never had any symptoms?

Because everyone knows you can be an asymptomatic carrier. I know several people with no symptoms who were tested because they came into close contact with someone that was confirmed as having the virus. It's actually very common. The health dept. has contacted many many people and had them tested because they were identified as coming into contact with a person who developed symptoms. It's also a good idea for people that have to care for those who are at risk.

[mkjeeves]

Because everyone knows you can be an asymptomatic carrier. I know several people with no symptoms who were tested because they came into close contact with someone that was confirmed as having the virus. It's actually very common. The health dept. has contacted many many people and had them tested because they were identified as coming into contact with a person who developed symptoms. It's also a good idea for people that have to care for those who are at risk.

They called us before they were testing everyone and told us we had come in contact with a person known to have been infected. That was 9 days after the contact. No recommendation to get tested at that time, just wait it out and see if symptoms develop. That changed about a week ago when they started testing people in that situation. We waited out the 14 days and didn't develop Covid 19. There was no other choice at that time.

[BBatesokc]

They called us before they were testing everyone and told us we had come in contact with a person known to have been infected. That was 9 days after the contact. No recommendation to get tested at that time, just wait it out and see if symptoms develop. That changed about a week ago when they started testing people in that situation. We waited out the 14 days and didn't develop Covid 19. There was no other choice at that time.

Initially they were asking people to self-quarantine and monitor themselves for any symptoms. Most likely because tests were not available and they didn't realize how many asymptomatic people were actually out there. I now know two people who have died from CV-19. I know for certain on the most recent the Health Dept. got in touch with people who had close contact and directed them on how to get tested and urged them to do so.

[Jersey Boss]

Numbers just updated for Friday:

Does anybody know if the number if deaths listed are exclusive to hospitals?

[kukblue1]

Initially they were asking people to self-quarantine and monitor themselves for any symptoms. Most likely because tests were not available and they didn't realize how many asymptomatic people were actually out there. I now know two people who have died from CV-19. I know for certain on the most recent the Health Dept. got in touch with people who had close contact and directed them on how to get tested and urged them to do so.

Ok but 3 weeks ago when this all started I'm pretty sure a co-worker had it. She went home and mailed everyone she was short of breath and coughing but no fever. She couldn't get tested back then as you needed all 3 symptoms. So did I have it then. I showed no symptoms. I don't want to go waste a test to see.

[Pete]

Updated for Saturday:

[Bill Robertson]

I know weekends numbers are “off” but compared to last Saturdays those look good.

[Jersey Boss]

Do the numbers include Federal hospitals located within the state(PHS, VA, Military bases), Veteran Centers, Nursing Homes?

[SoonerDave]

I know weekends numbers are “off” but compared to last Saturdays those look good.

I'm thinking the weekend drop would be reflected in Saturday-to-Sunday/Sunday-to-Monday numbers, but either way, I agree. The total positive doubling rate is now toward 9 days, and the hospitalization doubling rate is at 10 days.

I would sure like the OK Health Department to revisit the peak projection they released the other day. It seems the daily observable case projection is substantially overestimated. If we have a 9-day doubling rate, that would put us at 3600 cases by 4/20, and then 7200 by 4/29. It'd then require 1,000 cases per day for two days to even approach the 9,300 projection by May 1.

Again, not being critical of the model beyond saying some of the assumptions and underlying data might need to be revisited.

[Teo9969]

Though Oklahoma has not done a great job with our lock down, it's pretty clear our measures have substantially "flattened the curve".

As of the 4/10 Executive report, we were at the lowest gross number current hospitalized since the reports started on 4/1 (weekends don't get executive reports). We're now up to 40% of people who have been hospitalized leaving the hospital alive. It does look like the rate of death for those hospitalized may be expanding slightly (1%/2%), but not bad. Which is the exact direction you want to go if more people are still being hospitalized.

I think if there is an assumption/data point that needs to be revisited it's just how many people don't show symptoms though they have this. How we conquer this thing has been very clear from the start: 1. Herd Immunity -OR- 2. Vaccine. Since #2 is a ways off, any positive direction in the numbers vis-a-vis the models and in spite of taking less than exceptional measures can only be attributed to a misunderstanding of the collective immunity to this or the capacity of the virus to spread.

[TheTravellers]

Because everyone knows you can be an asymptomatic carrier. I know several people with no symptoms who were tested because they came into close contact with someone that was confirmed as having the virus. It's actually very common. The health dept. has contacted many many people and had them tested because they were identified as coming into contact with a person who developed symptoms. It's also a good idea for people that have to care for those who are at risk.

Yes, well aware of asymptomatic people, and yeah, when you add contact tracing into the mix, it makes more sense. It makes no sense for someone that's walking around with no symptoms, that knows nobody with symptoms (or a confirmed case), and has no contact with anybody that is at risk, it was just phrased poorly. "Hey, I don't have symptoms, got nothing better to do, why not go get a test?" at this point is kind of silly. In the (near) future, however, there should be hugely widespread testing (for both the virus and antibodies).

[soonerguru]

Though Oklahoma has not done a great job with our lock down, it's pretty clear our measures have substantially "flattened the curve".

As of the 4/10 Executive report, we were at the lowest gross number current hospitalized since the reports started on 4/1 (weekends don't get executive reports). We're now up to 40% of people who have been hospitalized leaving the hospital alive. It does look like the rate of death for those hospitalized may be expanding slightly (1%/2%), but not bad. Which is the exact direction you want to go if more people are still being hospitalized.

I think if there is an assumption/data point that needs to be revisited it's just how many people don't show symptoms though they have this. How we conquer this thing has been very clear from the start: 1. Herd Immunity -OR- 2. Vaccine. Since #2 is a ways off, any positive direction in the numbers vis-a-vis the models and in spite of taking less than exceptional measures can only be attributed to a misunderstanding of the collective immunity to this or the capacity of the virus to spread.

Great points above, and reasons for cautious optimism. It's clear this began spreading in Oklahoma in late February / First week of March. It seems we have probably cycled through most of those initial transmissions. Now we are dealing with the cave people still crowding stores shoulder to shoulder and having their underground gatherings.

Eventually, natural selection will become a real things.

Because our media have been ravaged by layoffs, it's a shame we don't have more reporting. For example, I would love to understand how Greer County in SW Oklahoma, which has no air force base or large installation or even sizable community (Mangum?), has like 46 cases and four deaths. What happened there?

Now that testing is more widely available, we can feel somewhat greater confidence in the numbers we are seeing.

One wonders what will happen when we 'open everything up' in the coming days, weeks, months.

[OKC_Chipper]

Interesting article about it being in California way earlier than what everyone thinks.

https://www.latimes.com/california/s...ead-california

Would be very interested to know when everyone thinks it was first in Oklahoma? I think I had it at the end of February. Obviously the longer it’s been here the better.

[BBatesokc]

Ok but 3 weeks ago when this all started I'm pretty sure a co-worker had it. She went home and mailed everyone she was short of breath and coughing but no fever. She couldn't get tested back then as you needed all 3 symptoms. So did I have it then. I showed no symptoms. I don't want to go waste a test to see.

Okay? So, are you saying your opinion should set the standard? Regardless, how are you 'wasting' a test if you have a valid reason to be tested? Makes absolutely no sense. No to mention it was a private lab open to the public with hardly anyone seeking a test there. They have so many tests there is no 'qualifying' to purchase one.

[BBatesokc]

Yes, well aware of asymptomatic people, and yeah, when you add contact tracing into the mix, it makes more sense. It makes no sense for someone that's walking around with no symptoms, that knows nobody with symptoms (or a confirmed case), and has no contact with anybody that is at risk, it was just phrased poorly. "Hey, I don't have symptoms, got nothing better to do, why not go get a test?" at this point is kind of silly. In the (near) future, however, there should be hugely widespread testing (for both the virus and antibodies).

That's the difference. I think you answered your own question.

[oklip955]

As far as Mangum, one of the tv stations had a bit on their website about it. I think someone brought it into a nursing home and it spread around there and from there to the community.

[brian72]

Interesting article about it being in California way earlier than what everyone thinks.

https://www.latimes.com/california/s...ead-california

Would be very interested to know when everyone thinks it was first in Oklahoma? I think I had it at the end of February. Obviously the longer it’s been here the better.

Our neighbors Daughter and Boyfriend live out in LA. They didn't come home for Christmas due to both of them being sick with flu like symptoms. Both took flu test and came back negative, so decided to stick it out. Now they are getting antibodies testing to see if they can help. Sounds like it was here earlier than thought.

[Teo9969]

If I recall correctly, the conventional wisdom was that 80% of people who contracted the virus would should minor or no symptoms and 20% would show more acute symptoms and 5% would be hospitalized.

I find it easy to believe that 20% of those with acute symptoms end up hospitalized. What I'm finding more and more difficult to believe is that 20% of those who contract the virus have acute symptoms. It seems like it is substantially higher than 80% of people who exhibit zero or relatively minor symptoms, and if that's the case, every percentage point over 80% that that applies to has a near exponential effect on how cautious we must tread.

It's obviously a virus we can't take lightly, but if we underestimated the R0 factor and/or overshot the acute symptoms factor, both of which are reasonable "failures" given the limited time the scientific community has had too study this virus, then we do have to reconsider our overall response.

Ultimately, science largely depends on data, and data is clearly what we have had the least of in this whole process.