Oklahoma City, In the Press

[stlokc]

Teo, I appreciate the context and thank you for doing a deeper dive. I don't disagree with what you're writing.

My gentle pushback would be this: Austin and Nashville and Raleigh were not significantly in a better place than OKC 50 years ago, even if they were older. They were southern state capitals. (I know, Texas, blah, blah, blah) but the reality is they were able to rise above history, geographic and cultural barriers over time by seizing on trends and industries and developing out the infrastructure, education etc. We're never going to be New York or San Francisco but the coming decline of oil will give us the opportunity to pivot to the future, and perhaps a higher trajectory of growth if we figure it out. (Big ask)

[chssooner]

Teo, I appreciate the context and thank you for doing a deeper dive. I don't disagree with what you're writing.

My gentle pushback would be this: Austin and Nashville and Raleigh were not significantly in a better place than OKC 50 years ago, even if they were older. They were southern state capitals. (I know, Texas, blah, blah, blah) but the reality is they were able to rise above history, geographic and cultural barriers over time by seizing on trends and industries and developing out the infrastructure, education etc. We're never going to be New York or San Francisco but the coming decline of oil will give us the opportunity to pivot to the future, and perhaps a higher trajectory of growth if we figure it out. (Big ask)

I don't think you know what "coming decline" means.

[Teo9969]

Teo, I appreciate the context and thank you for doing a deeper dive. I don't disagree with what you're writing.

My gentle pushback would be this: Austin and Nashville and Raleigh were not significantly in a better place than OKC 50 years ago, even if they were older. They were southern state capitals. (I know, Texas, blah, blah, blah) but the reality is they were able to rise above history, geographic and cultural barriers over time by seizing on trends and industries and developing out the infrastructure, education etc. We're never going to be New York or San Francisco but the coming decline of oil will give us the opportunity to pivot to the future, and perhaps a higher trajectory of growth if we figure it out. (Big ask)

I think 2012 - 2022 bore out how independent of OIl & Gas that the OKC economy has become. However, O&G is and always has been our catapult economically speaking. So while OKC could see that sector pretty well fold and still move forward, our ability to make any sort of major stride economically is tied almost exclusively to O&G for the next 20 years.

Given O&G's future, and a macro economy that looks like it will continue to centralize in major metropolitan areas (not just at home but worldwide), I would be content if we could just hold on to a -0.1% margin between share of population and share of GDP because I think most of those 19 at -0.1% right now will be at -0.2% within 30 years. An improvement of that margin would almost surely mean a plateau or decrease in rate of growth in population coupled with landing or growing 2-3 more headquarters for companies that are not in the Energy sector and have 5,000+ EEs (with at least 70% of those EEs being in OKC area). I also believe at least 2 of our major O&G companies will need to have pivoted their operations to greatly expand the scope of business beyond O&G. Tinker obviously cannot lose it's status in the US military apparatus.

I also think we need to be a major choice for people who want to flee Dallas & Houston the same way Denver and Salt Lake have become places for Californians to flee.

[Isaac C. Parker]

My gentle pushback would be this: Austin and Nashville and Raleigh were not significantly in a better place than OKC 50 years ago, even if they were older. They were southern state capitals. (I know, Texas, blah, blah, blah) but the reality is they were able to rise above history, geographic and cultural barriers over time by seizing on trends and industries and developing out the infrastructure, education etc. We're never going to be New York or San Francisco but the coming decline of oil will give us the opportunity to pivot to the future, and perhaps a higher trajectory of growth if we figure it out. (Big ask)

Like other Southern cities, 60 years ago Oklahoma City had a Jim Crow problem too. All the more reason to celebrate how far things have come.

[Mississippi Blues]

I don't think you know what "coming decline" means.

You don’t think there will be a decline of oil in the future?

[PhiAlpha]

You don’t think there will be a decline of oil in the future?

If the last year has proven anything, it’s that we are not anywhere near as close as government leaders, etc wanted to believe we were to alternatives making a meaningful impact on the world energy mix. Baring a MASSIVE breakthrough in alternative energy, I don’t think oil demand will meaningfully decline for between 30-50 years (will likely continue rising) and natural gas (which we have a ton of in Oklahoma), will probably continue rising in demand for the next 50 plus years. Oklahoma obviously needs to keep working toward adding new and more stable industries but the energy industry here will probably continue its ebb and flow of cycles here for the foreseeable future.

[Teo9969]

I think the question of diversifying away from O&G is whether or not our banks have learned how to manage exposure throughout the cycle (i.e. not having much exposure when oil falls off a cliff). It certainly seems like we managed that better in the 2008-2014 cycle than we did before the 80s bust.

I really wish we could take a huge step in the aerospace segment.

[Rover]

That’s my point.

So it’s even more impressive they grew so much when shut down and others open and trying.

[GoGators]

Teo, I appreciate the context and thank you for doing a deeper dive. I don't disagree with what you're writing.

My gentle pushback would be this: Austin and Nashville and Raleigh were not significantly in a better place than OKC 50 years ago, even if they were older. They were southern state capitals. (I know, Texas, blah, blah, blah) but the reality is they were able to rise above history, geographic and cultural barriers over time by seizing on trends and industries and developing out the infrastructure, education etc. We're never going to be New York or San Francisco but the coming decline of oil will give us the opportunity to pivot to the future, and perhaps a higher trajectory of growth if we figure it out. (Big ask)

The main driver of success that three cities have in common is a proximity to world class universities and the workforce, investment, prestige that comes with that. this is a major problem for OKC (and the state as a whole.) Unfortunately this is not really something OKC can do anything about.

[dcsooner]

The main driver of success that three cities have in common is a proximity to world class universities and the workforce, investment, prestige that comes with that. this is a major problem for OKC (and the state as a whole.) Unfortunately this is not really something OKC can do anything about.

. THIS is where Oklahoma and Oklahomans by extension continue IMO for fail. This prevailing attitude that the State HAS to remain mediocre. Truly amazes me how willing many are to simply accept substandard in so many areas

[chssooner]

[/B]. THIS is where Oklahoma and Oklahomans by extension continue IMO for fail. This prevailing attitude that the State HAS to remain mediocre. Truly amazes me how willing many are to simply accept substandard in so many areas

Your argument is FLAWED in its premise...Oklahoma spends almost as much per student at the collegiate level. UT is just bigger. That is the issue for Austin, they have a ton of people. Oklahoma spends more than North Carolina and Tennessee. So the spending is there, not it is just too look at where the spending is going. But Oklahoma has always spent fairly well at the college level.

https://www.learner.com/blog/states-...t-on-education

[Teo9969]

Your argument is FLAWED in its premise...Oklahoma spends almost as much per student at the collegiate level. UT is just bigger. That is the issue for Austin, they have a ton of people. Oklahoma spends more than North Carolina and Tennessee. So the spending is there, not it is just too look at where the spending is going. But Oklahoma has always spent fairly well at the college level.

Well, but students educated in those states tend to be the predominant feeder into that school. Spend all you want at the college level, if it's filled by students educated in Oklahoma, it's not going to be too of class. At least not in the first third of the 21st century.

[chssooner]

Well, but students educated in those states tend to be the predominant feeder into that school. Spend all you want at the college level, if it's filled by students educated in Oklahoma, it's not going to be too of class. At least not in the first third of the 21st century.

I agree. But Texas spends barely, and I mean BARELY, more than Oklahoma, according to the link I added to my post you quoted.

My thing is, Texas isn't that much more educated than Oklahoma. They have oil money that they throw at companies, and have used that to grow. It's a stigma that Texas spends a ton more on education. But it's just not the case.

[GoGators]

[/B]. THIS is where Oklahoma and Oklahomans by extension continue IMO for fail. This prevailing attitude that the State HAS to remain mediocre. Truly amazes me how willing many are to simply accept substandard in so many areas

What? I think you misunderstood what I was saying.

[Edmond Hausfrau]

The main driver of success that three cities have in common is a proximity to world class universities and the workforce, investment, prestige that comes with that. this is a major problem for OKC (and the state as a whole.) Unfortunately this is not really something OKC can do anything about.

Nashville has Vanderbilt, NC has Duke, Texas has Rice and SMU. Almost every college bound student in America knows the name of these private elite universities.
Oklahoma has...nothing even close in their realm for prestige undergraduate degrees that mean anything outside the state, except OCU if you are a musical theater major.

[Teo9969]

I agree. But Texas spends barely, and I mean BARELY, more than Oklahoma, according to the link I added to my post you quoted.

My thing is, Texas isn't that much more educated than Oklahoma. They have oil money that they throw at companies, and have used that to grow. It's a stigma that Texas spends a ton more on education. But it's just not the case.

True as that might be, there's also economies of scale. So we may have 5,000 students/year graduating from high quality private institutions and Texas has 20,000+ and UT definitely is going to swing a good chunk of those students who don't swing off to the Ivy leagues.

[chssooner]

True as that might be, there's also economies of scale. So we may have 5,000 students/year graduating from high quality private institutions and Texas has 20,000+ and UT definitely is going to swing a good chunk of those students who don't swing off to the Ivy leagues.

But that is not something anyone can control, not even those at 23rd and Lincoln. So when I see comparisons between the 2 states, it makes me giggle.

[GoGators]

Nashville has Vanderbilt, NC has Duke, Texas has Rice and SMU. Almost every college bound student in America knows the name of these private elite universities.
Oklahoma has...nothing even close in their realm for prestige undergraduate degrees that mean anything outside the state, except OCU if you are a musical theater major.

It’s not just private institutions. Austin and Raleigh are anchored by prestigious public universities as well. Oklahoma somehow lacks both.

Then you have a place like the Bay Area that boasts 2 of the top 10 universities in the world (one private one public) and it’s pretty easy to see why it tops the list in economic growth.

[chssooner]

It’s not just private institutions. Austin and Raleigh are anchored by prestigious public universities as well. Oklahoma somehow lacks both.

UT Austin has mineral rights that were gifted to them that allow them to have such high prestige. Imagine if the student who go there truly knew why that university has so much money, and that it was O&G-based. Raleigh, I will give you.

[Teo9969]

But that is not something anyone can control, not even those at 23rd and Lincoln. So when I see comparisons between the 2 states, it makes me giggle.

I agree...but in the context of this discussion, that's exactly the point. The few under 1.00% of US population metros that are producing in greater proportion than their share of the population are unique situations that OKC should not expect to be able to replicate.

None of my argument is to say that OKC is doing poorly or that our future is not as bright as it is. It's acknowledging that macro economics are playing heavily against OKC improving that negative margin and there's nothing we will be able to do to change that climate.

[chssooner]

I agree...but in the context of this discussion, that's exactly the point. The few under 1.00% of US population metros that are producing in greater proportion than their share of the population are unique situations that OKC should not expect to be able to replicate.

None of my argument is to say that OKC is doing poorly or that our future is not as bright as it is. It's acknowledging that macro economics are playing heavily against OKC improving that negative margin and there's nothing we will be able to do to change that climate.

I agree. That makes sense.

[GoGators]

UT Austin has mineral rights that were gifted to them that allow them to have such high prestige. Imagine if the student who go there truly knew why that university has so much money, and that it was O&G-based. Raleigh, I will give you.

All I am saying is that these cities that have experienced huge growth over the past 50 years all have top tier universities within close proximity that helps drives economic growth. Oklahoma City does not. OKC will have to try and continue to grow despite not having this luxury and there is nothing the city can do to change that. I think okc has done very well over the past 30 years and has made some huge strides. I just think that believing OKC could take the same path as Austin, Raleigh, and Nashville is not realistic as those cities have a huge advantage that OKC doesn’t have. That was my only point.

[chssooner]

All I am saying is that these cities that have experienced huge growth over the past 50 years all have top tier universities within close proximity that helps drives economic growth. Oklahoma City does not. OKC will have to try and continue to grow despite not having this luxury and there is nothing the city can do to change that. I think okc has done very well over the past 30 years and has made some huge strides. I just think that believing OKC could take the same path as Austin, Raleigh, and Nashville is not realistic as those cities have a huge advantage that OKC doesn’t have. That was my only point.

I agree with you. Private schools are very hard to get started nowadays. You never hear of new ones (or new colleges in general, really). So you are right. Vanderbilt and Duke help those areas greatly. And UT being as large as OU and OSU combined, almost, is not something that OKC or the state can do anything about. I agree with you on that

[Plutonic Panda]

All I am saying is that these cities that have experienced huge growth over the past 50 years all have top tier universities within close proximity that helps drives economic growth. Oklahoma City does not. OKC will have to try and continue to grow despite not having this luxury and there is nothing the city can do to change that. I think okc has done very well over the past 30 years and has made some huge strides. I just think that believing OKC could take the same path as Austin, Raleigh, and Nashville is not realistic as those cities have a huge advantage that OKC doesn’t have. That was my only point.

Phoenix, Las Vegas, Salt Lake City, Boise?

[GoGators]

Phoenix, Las Vegas, Salt Lake City, Boise?

Yea I wasn’t thinking about those western cities. Good point.