My reference to politics was mainly they are the group with the most aggressive timeline on transition, if industry behind EVs had a more optimistic date I would have gone with that.
At least some estimates place the theoretical limit with current battery tech production around 10% of yearly vehicle sales, based on the worldwide availability of the materials needed, sure that can change over time but it likely will be slower than the 2035 date. So the breakthrough in battery tech we really need is materials that are cheaper / more common but still with similar energy density to lithium batteries, some of the research sounds promising but that is still likely years from impacting if does work. Breakthroughs in power distribution seem less likely to rush things, as even if were game changing probably would be rolled out over decades.
If a full on price spike to $200 happened in next few years probably would get the export ban on crude back in effect, which went into effect in the 70s but only lifted in 2015. The US is around net independent anyway, the main issue right now is a lot of our refineries were designed for lower grades of crude since before improvements in drilling the last couple decades, the expectation was the need was going to be for harder to refine grades of crude not simpler to refine crude. If the refiners could not handle that problem in a timely manor, it still seems unlikely would be able to massively ramp EV production quickly. If anything quickest alternative would be to dust off the concept of converting ICE vehicles to run with CNG, and even that would be a mess.
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