Covid-19 in OKC (coronavirus)

[Pete]

Ok, I see what you are saying. If already cut they don’t have to rehire.

Had I made the bill I would have required rehires to qualify. Especially since its free money (forgiveness).

The problem is that all the money has to be spent in 8 weeks.

So, almost nobody is going to rehire people when they will likely still be struggling 8 weeks down the line.


Speaking for myself, we are not planning to rehire people at the Gazette; just trying desperately to pay our core employees so we can come back strong when the time is right. And that is not likely to be within 8 weeks.

[dankrutka]

Sure there is...you just do it because it isn't feasible to keep it shut down long enough for universal testing, a vaccine or anything else to catch up. I guess we'll see it works out for Sweden vs everyone else.

I guess you mean not feasible for the United States. Other countries are making it happen far more quickly. Many of these things should be feasible within 4-6 weeks if we do things right.

[dankrutka]

Oh, and again for the COVID-19-is-the-flu crowd. Just a reminder that almost 2,000 people (1,858 deaths) died due to COVID-19 on Tuesday.

[Edmond Hausfrau]

I guess you mean not feasible for the United States. Other countries are making it happen far more quickly. Many of these things should be feasible within 4-6 weeks if we do things right.

Cellex Inc does have emergency authorization from the FDA for serologic testing work. They are headquarted in North Carolina, according to the FDA EUA approval letter.

[BoulderSooner]

Oh, and again for the COVID-19-is-the-flu crowd. Just a reminder that almost 2,000 people (1,858 deaths) died due to COVID-19 on Tuesday.

over 7700 people die every day

[RedDollar]

The problem is that all the money has to be spent in 8 weeks.

So, almost nobody is going to rehire people when they will likely still be struggling 8 weeks down the line.


Speaking for myself, we are not planning to rehire people at the Gazette; just trying desperately to pay our core employees so we can come back strong when the time is right. And that is not likely to be within 8 weeks.

Was just listeniing to Ted Cruz's podcast " The Verdict " while on my bicycle ride, he says if they've already laid off employees, if they hire them back the loan will be treated as a grant.
'

[jedicurt]

This is incorrect beginning at the first sentence of your post.

We are already at a point where some businesses will not reopen. The gov't has done some work to minimize those losses with the SBA loans, but those mediums are essentially useless if we're not back up and running after April...maybe we can make it a week or 2 into May. After that, it will require another round of injection from the Fed/Washington, but at some point, a large swath of small business owners will just cut losses and not try to guess when we're good to come out of lockdown. And they will not re-insert that working capital back into the market until they have some assurance that we're not going to get rocked again.

When restrictions are lifted and many people's choice of food establishment to celebrate is no longer operating and has no definite plans of returning will be the 1st time that people really begin to understand the economic consequences of this virus. The closer we push this to summer, the more out of whack supply and demand economics becomes. Returning that to order will probably take, minimum, a month for every week we are shut down beginning this month.

correct... which i stated in my first statement... my apologize if you assumed i meant all businesses, after i had already said that some will die.... really not sure why you are arguing with me on this... i said that very statement before you did, and explained why that is just the nature disasters and the free market.

[OKC Talker]

The re-open-the-economy folks who think the economic hardship is worse than COVID-19 live in fantasy land. This isn't an either/or choice.

First, anyone who argues this isn't worse than the flu should be ignored because all the evidence supports they're wrong. The primary reason things aren't way worse is because people have taken drastic social distancing measures across the United States. Even with shelter-in-place for weeks, here's what happened in NYC (source):



Attachment 15947
(click on the picture for a larger image)

Regardless of whether it will be as bad, most cities in the U.S. still haven't hit their peak.

Second, there is no such thing as re-opening the economy until COVID-19 is under control. This requires universal testing and mask wearing, the development of anti-bodies, and continued social distancing. And only once the curve has flattened can businesses open in a limited way. People will not fully participate in the economy unless they are confident the health risks are low (and this has to be real or sickness and death will reveal it).

In short, the only reasonable option is to (a) get COVID-19 under control so health confidence raises and (b) then re-open aspects of the economy while continuing/maintaining tests, masks, social distancing, etc. All of that will be around for the next year+ in some form or another.

I think that's what a lot of people don't get. It's not just an economic argument, there has to be some endgame for the universal "shelter in place" policies. The entire world can't stay in quarantine for 18 months until a vaccine is ready so once you "flatten the curve" and keep the initial burst of critical cases from overloading hospitals, you actually need as many people to continue getting infected as possible (without overloading the hospitals again) to build herd immunity.

It only makes sense to start with the younger and much lower risk group which can then get antibody testing to confirm they're immune and no longer a risk to others. I'm sure a lot of people would do this voluntarily and could be a kind of "hands-on workforce" for those who have to stay safe at home. The grocery store workers, package delivery people, and other essential jobs which are currently filled by people risking their health would be taken care of and the world could go on until there's a vaccine for the high risk groups.

https://finance.yahoo.com/amphtml/ne...150828964.html

[Pete]

Was just listeniing to Ted Cruz's podcast " The Verdict " while on my bicycle ride, he says if they've already laid off employees, if they hire them back the loan will be treated as a grant.
'

The loan is forgivable to the extent the money is spent on payroll, utilities, mortgage and rent.

You don't have to rehire anyone to meet this condition.

[rezman]

^

All you have to do is keep the employees you have at the time of application.

Most companies have already let go the majority of their staff.

That’s what our company is doing. They are cutting everyone’s hours and have applied for the relief funds so as to not lay anyone off and keep moving forward.

[liirogue]

The loan is forgivable to the extent the money is spent on payroll, utilities, mortgage and rent.

You don't have to rehire anyone to meet this condition.

75% of the loan must be used for payroll or none of the loan amount is forgiven. In addition, the loan amount is determined by your average monthly payroll - so if you take a loan for 2.5 times your monthly payroll but don't hire back enough people to hit that 75% threshold, you are on the hook to repay the entire thing.

The PPP loan is designed to get employers to keep and/or rehire staff that was let go.

[Pete]

75% of the loan must be used for payroll or none of the loan amount is forgiven. In addition, the loan amount is determined by your average monthly payroll - so if you take a loan for 2.5 times your monthly payroll but don't hire back enough people to hit that 75% threshold, you are on the hook to repay the entire thing.

The PPP loan is designed to get employers to keep and/or rehire staff that was let go.

And it has to be spent within 8 weeks of being issued.

I've already applied and hope to have funds in the next few days.

[sooner88]

The loan is forgivable to the extent the money is spent on payroll, utilities, mortgage and rent.

You don't have to rehire anyone to meet this condition.

It also doesn't specify how that payroll is allocated to employees, just that a minimum of 75% of the loan is spent towards payroll to be forgiven.

[dankrutka]

I think that's what a lot of people don't get. It's not just an economic argument, there has to be some endgame for the universal "shelter in place" policies. The entire world can't stay in quarantine for 18 months until a vaccine is ready so once you "flatten the curve" and keep the initial burst of critical cases from overloading hospitals, you actually need as many people to continue getting infected as possible (without overloading the hospitals again) to build herd immunity.

It only makes sense to start with the younger and much lower risk group which can then get antibody testing to confirm they're immune and no longer a risk to others. I'm sure a lot of people would do this voluntarily and could be a kind of "hands-on workforce" for those who have to stay safe at home. The grocery store workers, package delivery people, and other essential jobs which are currently filled by people risking their health would be taken care of and the world could go on until there's a vaccine for the high risk groups.

https://finance.yahoo.com/amphtml/ne...150828964.html

Again, shelter-at-home OR everyone gets it are not the only options. There are sensible middle ground approaches. The herd immunity end game seems to be a way worse option than tests + masks + social distancing + widespread precautions to get us through the year+ until there's a vaccine. Most things can re-open under those circumstances. Probably not indoor (or crowded) concerts or clubs and such will probably need to stay closed for longer. But businesses that impose temporary COVID-19 limitations (e.g., every third table can be used) could open. A lot of people will certainly choose to be less social until there's a vaccine and so carry out/delivery will continue to be popular.

[kukblue1]

At some point ( i'm thinking around june 1st) we are going to have to let the younger crowd out into the world. Still no concerts still no large events but like the post above being able to go out to eat. All you have to do is look at the death rates. Under 50 I think it's .05 percent. Even in Oklahoma only 4 deaths under 50 (that might of changed today) We still need to keep the older population isolated though. Keep them at home as much as possible. Drop off grocery, don't go visit them. Pretty much all the things we are trying to do now. I just copy part of a story

Of the 4,758 deaths in New York since the first on March 14, 61% were men and 39% were women, the state Department of Health reportedon its new data portal.

In addition, 63% of the deaths were among those age 70 and older, while 7% of the cases were those 49 and younger.

And 4,089 of those who died had at least one other chronic disease, the records showed:

The leading underlying illness was hypertension, which showed up in 55% of the deaths.
Next was diabetes, which was diagnosed in 1,755 deaths, or about 37% of the cases.
Other top illnesses found in those who died from coronavirus were hyperlipidemia; coronary artery disease; renal disease and dementia.

So if i'm doing my numbers right only 333 people 49 or under have died. Maybe if you have one of the conditions listed and your under 50 you also need to stay home. I don't know the answer but we also can't keep going like this for 18 months.

[d-usa]

One issue in this thread is the whole “sacrificing the economy for 60,000 deaths” argument. It’s “only” 60,000 because we did what we needed to do. Under a “screw lives, save the economy” approach we would be looking at a much much larger number.

But many predicted that any success at lowering the totals would be met with a “see, not many people died, we didn’t need to do all this, everyone overreacted” argument.

[liirogue]

It also doesn't specify how that payroll is allocated to employees, just that a minimum of 75% of the loan is spent towards payroll to be forgiven.

This is false. At the top of the PPP Fact Sheet for Borrowers published by the Treasury Department, it specifically states that for loan amounts to be forgiven, one of the criteria is that "employee and compensation levels are maintained." Any business owner that takes out a PPP loan must have the same level of staff they had when the crises started, or have a good reason why not. And maintaining compensation levels means no sweetheart salaries for the boss at the expense of the owners/management.

I am not your CPA and I am not offering any professional advice on this message board. However this is dangerous misinformation that is spreading, and I strongly encourage any business owner that is seeking a PPP loan consult with their accountant.

[Jeepnokc]

And it has to be spent within 8 weeks of being issued.

I've already applied and hope to have funds in the next few days.

My PPP was funded today and is in my bank account

[RedDollar]

The powers that be have their butt covered on this one .............

If deaths are not what they forecast, then it was all due to the draconian lock down of American life.

And its appearing that they used scare tactics that were beyond necessary.

[Rover]

The powers that be have their butt covered on this one .............

If deaths are not what they forecast, then it was all due to the draconian lock down of American life.

And its appearing that they used scare tactics that were beyond necessary.

That will be the radical right wing media spin.

[soonerguru]

At any rate, I guess we'll see how it works out for Sweden vs everyone else.

At any rate, it turns out, unsurprisingly, that the National Review article posted by BoulderSooner left out some key facts, as is discussed in this Forbes piece: notably, Swedes are drawing up plans to change their policy as their number of cases is rising the fastest among the Nordic countries, and their citizens are beginning to freak out and realize that their perverse sense of invincibility was unfounded in the end.

The country that has done best at thwarting Covid-19 is New Zealand, not Sweden. Sweden is just going to be the next hot spot in Europe, but a dude in National Review got to write a thing.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opini...us-backfiring/

https://www.forbes.com/sites/travers.../#5fe9fa33637e

[soonerguru]

You gotta love the "but they were over 65" and "but they had underlying conditions" qualifiers. WTF? Does that mean they deserve it? Regardless, what percentage of Americans have underlying conditions? It's probably a rather large number.

[RustytheBailiff]

over 7700 people die every day

Not on Tuesday, on Tuesday 9,700 people died. That's a 26% increase. Would you like to die 26% faster than you are supposed to? Your statement that 7700 die every day is idiotic.

[mugofbeer]

The only ones that don't matter are baby boomer white men.

[chuck5815]

Not on Tuesday, on Tuesday 9,700 people died. That's a 26% increase. Would you like to die 26% faster than you are supposed to? Your statement that 7700 die every day is idiotic.

where’s your cite for this? I’m assuming you’re just making stuff up, per usual.