May 2021 - General Weather Discussion

[Anonymous.]

Someone send annoymous forecast to the newsstations so they will quit talking about next week already.

I don't keep up with the local mets, but I am guessing maybe they are looking at the 7 days away Thursday/Friday severe potentials?

[Ohwiseone]

I don't keep up with the local mets, but I am guessing maybe they are looking at the 7 days away Thursday/Friday severe potentials?

Yeah, Wednesday - Thursday - Friday. (Although It might just be Wednesday - Thursday)

[Celebrator]

Here's a tweet from NWS Norman from yesterday:
"The wet pattern is forecast to continue into middle of next week, with rain chances each day and high temperatures will remain below average to average for this time of year. Remarkably, the long-range guidance suggests severe weather potential will remain low."

[Pete]

I'm not complaining but for at least the last two springs we've had very few severe storms.

I've barely even heard thunder.

Very strange for Oklahoma.

[OKCisOK4me]

I'm not complaining but for at least the last two springs we've had very few severe storms.

I've barely even heard thunder.

Very strange for Oklahoma.

It's cause the OKC Thunder is down...lol

[kukblue1]

I'm afraid the Hype train is really going to get going. The media won't call it hype but when it's more than 3-4 days out to me it's hype. That being said GFS tonight shows storms next Wednesday, Thursday, break Friday then storms again the next 3 days. As Payne would say. HANG ON.

[C_M_25]

I'm afraid the Hype train is really going to get going. The media won't call it hype but when it's more than 3-4 days out to me it's hype. That being said GFS tonight shows storms next Wednesday, Thursday, break Friday then storms again the next 3 days. As Payne would say. HANG ON.

I dunno. I don't feel like the signals are that strong for storms next week. The GFS shows off and on bouts of rain throughout the week, but there is nothing really signaling a pronounced dry line or anything. Even the relative humidity isn't that impressive. Looks like it's indicating some decent CAPE. We'll see though. Temperatures look like they'll be up there which always adds fuel to the fire.

[kukblue1]

I dunno. I don't feel like the signals are that strong for storms next week. The GFS shows off and on bouts of rain throughout the week, but there is nothing really signaling a pronounced dry line or anything. Even the relative humidity isn't that impressive. Looks like it's indicating some decent CAPE. We'll see though. Temperatures look like they'll be up there which always adds fuel to the fire.

True but there is enough there to get the media all excited. SPC not so much.

[Celebrator]

True but there is enough there to get the media all excited. SPC not so much.

KFOR not getting excited. What local media are you referring to? Honestly, YOU are the only one hyping anything.

[snark0leptic]

Any reason to be concerned for tomorrow if we're out at Scissortail for most of the morning? I'm guessing it's just hiit or miss rain showers from the south with little chance of lightning.

[kukblue1]

KFOR not getting excited. What local media are you referring to? Honestly, YOU are the only one hyping anything.

Ah Keep up and read past post. The hype train was alive and well a week before this past Tuesday. And I'm not hyping I'm just pointing my the media will by hyping a bit of a difference.

[Celebrator]

Ah Keep up and read past post. The hype train was alive and well a week before this past Tuesday. And I'm not hyping I'm just pointing my the media will by hyping a bit of a difference.

I AM keeping up. Right, hype for last Tuesday, yes, but I am talking about the upcoming week. And here is the NWS from their overnight forecast on Twitter: "Isolated to scattered showers and seasonal temperatures will continue into next week. Oddly for May, there's no severe weather currently in the forecast."

[Anonymous.]

Here is snapshot of tomorrow afternoon. Pop up style showers and storms, nothing organized. It will much be like what you see on radar right now (3:30pm Friday).

[kukblue1]

I AM keeping up. Right, hype for last Tuesday, yes, but I am talking about the upcoming week. And here is the NWS from their overnight forecast on Twitter: "Isolated to scattered showers and seasonal temperatures will continue into next week. Oddly for May, there's no severe weather currently in the forecast."

I'm agreeing there is no real good chance next week yet however it still will be brought up tonight you watch. The tease will be about the tornado risk next week or storm chances increase next week. There be something crazy thrown out there. Anyway this was from today.

(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 217 PM CDT Fri May 21 2021

No significant changes to the long term have been made. By
Sunday, a well-established mid-level ridge will dominate the
Tennessee/Ohio Valleys as a strong mid-level trough traverses the
Desert Southwest. This downstream ridge will continue to build,
and will limit the troughs movement over the Southern Plains. By
doing so, large scale ascent will be limited and organized severe
potential will be very low. Weak isentropic ascent, in addition
to rich low-level moisture, will foster some isolated and
scattered showers throughout the period across the area. The
aforementioned trough will move into the Central/High plains early
next week, where quasi-zonal flow will be over the area.
Southerly surface flow will persist through the long term as mid-
level flow across the Rockies will foster surface troughing.
Cloudy to mostly cloudy skies are expected at least through the
middle of next week, which will keep temperatures around normal.

[Anonymous.]

SPC outlining 15% probability for severe weather across large part of OK for Thursday night.

[C_M_25]

SPC outlining 15% probability for severe weather across large part of OK for Thursday night.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but this is looking like a typical summertime MCS out of the NW, no? Higher hail and wind threat as opposed to tornadic supercell development?

[Anonymous.]

Yes a cluster of storms is more likely given the timing of the event. However, it could still mean tail-end embedded cyclonic storm chances. It is far too early to really have a good grasp on storm modes.

[kukblue1]

Am I the only one a little concerned for Tomorrow (Tuesday). Far as Thursday go surface winds should stay south southwest so low tornado threat low for now

[SEMIweather]

Tomorrow still looks really mediocre to me, would be surprised if any storms that develop can even sustain themselves into OKC. Thursday does have my interest because we *finally* seem to have decent wind shear parameters.

[Anonymous.]

Slight Risk for far W OK with any storms sparking from outflow boundaries in the area. Could see dying storm cluster meandering about this evening.

SPC marking Thursday evening as Enhanced Risk with hatched significant severe marker for large part of OK. This will be for large hail and tornado potential from supercells.

[Anonymous.]

Glimpse of Thursday evening from the NAM. Showing supercells firing across NW and N OK. Eventually forming into a large MCS that pushes SE. Despite what will likely become a large line of storms, embedded supercells are viable. Large hail and damaging wind main threats with outside tornado spin-up threat.

[kukblue1]

Glimpse of Thursday evening from the NAM. Showing supercells firing across NW and N OK. Eventually forming into a large MCS that pushes SE. Despite what will likely become a large line of storms, embedded supercells are viable. Large hail and damaging wind main threats with outside tornado spin-up threat.

At this point not buying any of it. We can't see to get storms into the body of the state at all. Today looked good or ok in the morning and nothing. Probably won't even rain in the metro and 80% of the state overnight. It's like we are blocked this year from storms. It's crazy

[Pete]

It seems like every day shows a good chance of rain, then it suddenly evaporates and then it's the same forecast the next day.

It's all one big tease.

[Anonymous.]

SPC has outlined a 5% tornado risk for large part of OK tomorrow night. 10% in a local area across extreme N and NE OK. Emphasis on damaging wind threat with lines of storms and echoing sentiment on potential for embedded cyclonic areas within the line.

...Consolidation into one or more
surging bows may occur during the evening and persist into the
overnight. Significant severe gusts may accompany the stronger
supercell to squall line transition process or with embedded
mesovortices within a moist low-level airmass centered over
central/eastern OK...

[Anonymous.]

Also Thursday will probably be OKC's hottest day of the year so far. Temperature ahead of the front will be surging into the mid-80s and humidity values will be very high.