February 2021 - General Weather Discussion

[Anonymous.]

First heavy snowband is forming right now across W OK. This will quickly spread east and strengthen into the morning hours. Then it will let up for a few hours before the next wave. This initial band and how long it stays over the same area will determine the snow total winners.

This will be fun to watch on radar tonight. I am actually in OKC for this event!

[NikonNurse]

I’m at work on south side and see huge snowflakes on my house camera from the north side....

[Anonymous.]

Yea this massive snowband is about to lay down the pain. All of OKC will be in heavy snow for the next 3-4 hours.

[C_M_25]

Just looked out the window and we may have gotten a dusting from this first snowband in NW okc.

[NikonNurse]

Just looked out the window and we may have gotten a dusting from this first snowband in NW okc.

I can personally say it’s more than a dusting . I got off at 3ish It started around 230. Ground went from dusting to a good inch or so in about 30 min. Drive home met me with blizzard ish snow and about 2 inches on lawn.

[PoliSciGuy]

Yea this massive snowband is about to lay down the pain. All of OKC will be in heavy snow for the next 3-4 hours.

Seems to have been a bit of a bust, though I see round two is starting to approach from the west

[d-usa]

Deer Creek area didn’t get much, but what we did get is dry and powdery and already blowing and drifting.

[C_M_25]

I dunno guys. I’m still feeling bust on this forecast. The snow is awfully slow coming in and we didn’t see what we were told we would see in that first snow band. I’m concerned that the dry slot is going to push south and cut off the snow before it really impacts okc. Just a gut feeling..

[Pete]

There can't be many cities in the world where temps exceed 100 in the summer and then dip below zero in the winter.

Then you add ice storms in the fall and tornados in the spring and OKC must have some of the most extreme weather of any decent-sized city.

[Anonymous.]

First band definitely died out after starting strong. About 2-3 inches from it across OKC. But it is all blowing around so tough to see.

The banding hasn’t been able to get established too well except in very local area in N OK.

[C_M_25]

Obviously there is a large wave on its way but the past couple of radar sweeps are showing a clear dry air pocket moving into the city from northeast. Curious how long that sticks around or how much of an effect it has on the next wave.

[Anonymous.]

This incoming wave will have to get its act together to see anything close to what models were predicting even last night. Right now it is a very broken up mess. I would still say based on current trends the heaviest accumulation looks to be I-44 or just south.

[PoliSciGuy]

Is this supposed to be the main show or are we getting the heaviest stuff overnight?

[FighttheGoodFight]

Is this supposed to be the main show or are we getting the heaviest stuff overnight?

I could be wrong but I think the noon to this evening is the “big” wave.

[BoulderSooner]

Snowing hard in Yukon per Twitter and starting to snow harder in NE Edmond

[Pete]

Snowing pretty hard here near Penn Square.

Radar showing a pretty big band moving SW to NE that could keep us in moderate to heavy snow for a few hours.

[midtownokcer]

Just started snowing heavily in Downtown OKC. KOCO Met. Jonathan Conder is getting lots of hate on FB because people thought the first wave was it for the storm.

[SEMIweather]

The wave moving through right now should be the main wave, snow should really start to taper off this evening.

The latest HRRR run seems to have a good depiction of the current conditions and shows about 6" falling across the Metro with this wave in addition to anything that fell in the initial band overnight.

[Anonymous.]

Yes this band getting stronger across the Lawton area is looking to be the show. Like SEMIweather said, probably a swath of 6” is a good bet according to models.

[BoulderSooner]

That would give the metro. Close to 10 from this storm.

[jn1780]

Just started snowing heavily in Downtown OKC. KOCO Met. Jonathan Conder is getting lots of hate on FB because people thought the first wave was it for the storm.

The local Mets did set the bar pretty high. Still impressive storm for Oklahoma, but I'm still skeptical we will hit 10 inches. Still more a few more hours of snow to go though. Plus, the extreme cold in my opinion is the bigger story at least when it comes to threatening conditions.

[Pete]

The big issue is going to be drifting, as the snow is very dry and light and we continue to have some good winds.

I've already got a big pile outside of my back door.

[C_M_25]

How did we get to a point where we need wall to wall coverage for snow??

Also, I feel like like these modern Mets rely almost exclusively on models. In my field, models are used as approximations. We look at various model runs and evaluate, not only the trends within an iteration, but also the trends between iterations. Based on that, we make interpretations guided by those models but also based on our experiences in similar situations. I get the feeling like these guys get so hung up on the “moment/one model run that shows massive snow totals” that they don’t step back and just interpret what they’re seeing. At the very least, that is my perception.

[emtefury]

How did we get to a point where we need wall to wall coverage for snow??

Also, I feel like like these modern Mets rely almost exclusively on models. In my field, models are used as approximations. We look at various model runs and evaluate, not only the trends within an iteration, but also the trends between iterations. Based on that, we make interpretations guided by those models but also based on our experiences in similar situations. I get the feeling like these guys get so hung up on the “moment/one model run that shows massive snow totals” that they don’t step back and just interpret what they’re seeing. At the very least, that is my perception.

News is a business and need to sell a story that people want to watch.

[C_M_25]

Also, from above, meteorology is an incredibly complex science and the models are far from perfect. I know we’re miles ahead of where we were 20 years ago. Unfortunately, we suffer from the need to draw ratings which ultimately is a bad thing.