General Weather Discussion - December, 2015

[Of Sound Mind]

Need a combined "Fraidy Hole/Bread and Milk" warning LOL

[BG918]

Best weather map I've seen from this weekend complements of the Mesonet:

Ha replace the Big Gulps with QT cups though in NE OK.

[BB37]

Are there any Dairy Queens in the panhandle?

[yukong]

Are there any Dairy Queens in the panhandle?

There is one in Boise City because I've eaten there.

[chrisok]

Are there any Dairy Queens in the panhandle?

As a matter of fact, Boise City has one.

[Bobby821]

Here is the last thinking on the storm for this weekend from NWS:

DISCUSSION...
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE WARM...BY LATE DECEMBER
STANDARDS...AND MAINLY DRY...ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS.
MEANWHILE...A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES...AND START TO MOVE EAST. THIS TROUGH WILL
LEAD TO A MAJOR STORM SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND
INTO MONDAY.

BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...INCREASED LOW-LEVEL GULF MOISTURE WILL
RESULT IN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER ROUGHLY
THE EASTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA. THE MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA BY SATURDAY
MORNING...AND MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING IN MUCH COLDER AIR...AND CAUSE
PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE TO A VARIETY OF TYPES AS THE FREEZING LINE
ADVANCES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THE POSITION AND TIMING OF SNOW/FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET/RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS...THE FORECAST MODELS ARE IN MUCH
BETTER AGREEMENT THAN THEY WERE 24 HOURS AGO.

AS THE STORM SYSTEM PROGRESSES...THE RAIN/MIX/SNOW LINE WILL MOVE
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST...THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FROM ROUGHLY ENID
TO LAWTON TO VERNON FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
HEAVY SNOWFALL IS LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER PARTS OF WESTERN
OKLAHOMA...AND SIGNIFICANT ICING MAY OCCUR FARTHER EAST WITHIN
THE TRANSITION ZONE. AGAIN...THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY...BUT
WE DO HAVE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CONFIDENCE THAT CONDITIONS WEST OF
ABOUT ALVA TO CLINTON TO HOLLIS WILL SEE BLIZZARD...OR NEAR-
BLIZZARD...CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. EAST OF CUSHING TO
SHAWNEE TO ARDMORE...WE DO NOT CURRENTLY EXPECT ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION. HOWEVER...THE CONTINUING ADJUSTMENTS IN THE FORECAST
MODELS SUGGEST THAT IT WILL BE WISE TO PAY ATTENTION TO LATER
FORECAST UPDATES EVEN IN THAT AREA.

IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW...THE WIND SPEEDS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE WESTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA WILL LIKELY REACH WIND
ADVISORY LEVELS FROM SATURDAY EVENING UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH SEEM
PROBABLE...AND HIGHER SPEEDS ARE POSSIBLE...IN THE WEST. ALONG
WITH THE MUCH LOWER TEMPERATURES...THIS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL
READINGS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA...THAT WILL
BE A MAJOR CHANGE FROM THE MILD WEATHER TODAY AND CHRISTMAS DAY.
WINDS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LIGHTER IN OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES.

[jn1780]

Hopefully we don't stay in the transition zone. I will take a blizzard over a bad ice storm. A pure rain event would be even better.

[Bunty]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT BY NWS:

Message summary: ...strong storm system to impact portions of oklahoma and western north texas this weekend...
It will not be a white christmas for oklahoma and western north texas but it could be a white after christmas weekend for some. A strong storm system is expected to approach and move across the southern plains affecting the area late this week... Through the weekend into early next week. Showers and thunderstorms will begin friday night across portions of oklahoma and western north texas. Precipitation chances will then increase across the area over the weekend. Rain will initially be the precipitation type friday night and during the day on saturday. Cooler air will move into the region behind a cold front that moves across the area saturday and cold air aloft associated with the approaching upper low could lead to a transition to winter precipitation for some saturday night. Winter precipitation will then remain possible through monday across portions of the area.

The best chance for winter precipitation...
Most likely snow... Will be in parts of northwest oklahoma with a wintry mix possible across north central... And parts of central and western oklahoma... And western north texas. Several inches of snow accumulation will be possible in parts of the area by monday. Strong northerly winds will likely occur behind the front this weekend which combined with the winter precipitation could lead to reduced visibilities in some areas this weekend. In addition to the winter precipitation... Several inches of rain will be possible friday night through monday... Especially across portions of south central and southeast oklahoma. This heavy rain could lead to flooding in some areas.

There are still a number of uncertainties with this storm system such as the timing... Path that the system travels... And how much cold air will be in the area. These factors will all have an impact on what kind of winter precipitation occurs... Where it will occur... And how much winter precipitation the area will receive. However... Travel conditions could be impacted so if you plan on traveling friday night through monday check the forecast often for the latest updates... Especially closer to the weekend when the details about this storm system should become more clear.

[Jesseda]

has the direction changed for who gets snow, the news is acting like we might just get rain in okc?

[SoonerDave]

has the direction changed for who gets snow, the news is acting like we might just get rain in okc?

As is so often the case, the models put the freezing line tantalizingly close to central OK during the day Saturday. The problem is in that the models could be off in the exact placement of that line by 20 or 30 miles (or more) either way, translating to the difference between a rain event and an ice/snow event for OKC. These models are great in general, but when boundaries and timing and the myriad other variables that go into play are considered, the best thing to do is be aware that winter weather is on the way, and it's ultimate real-world location will be hard to pinpoint with precision until its arrival is more imminent.

[kevinpate]

I'm dreaming of a ... rainy Christmas
Like so many ones enjoyed before
Where bumpers glisten
and shingles drippin'
and my driveway has no piles of snow

[Mel]

Please no more ice. I don't think I can get anymore limbs on my section curb. Saw the Google car a couple of days ago zipping around Mustang. It's going to look like everybody has a Beaver Dam in front of their house.

[stick47]

Please no more ice. I don't think I can get anymore limbs on my section curb. Saw the Google car a couple of days ago zipping around Mustang. It's going to look like everybody has a Beaver Dam in front of their house.

[Bobby821]

Winter Storm Watch Is Out:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
335 PM CST THU DEC 24 2015

.FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...AND SNOW EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING...

.A POTENT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF WEST TEXAS WILL
BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN MAY INITIALLY DEVELOP EARLY SUNDAY ALONG AND WEST
OF I44...WITH SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE
MORNING HOURS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. THIS
SCENARIO MAY CONTINUE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT BY EARLY
MONDAY MORNING THE SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. PERHAPS THE HEAVIEST SNOW...AND
SOME SLEET...WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE DAY MONDAY. MOST
OF THE WINTER PRECIPITATION SHOULD END AFTER SUNSET MONDAY.

OKZ004>030-033>040-044-TXZ083>089-250545-
/O.NEW.KOUN.WS.A.0005.151227T0000Z-151229T0000Z/
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-
NOBLE-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-
BECKHAM-WA****A-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-
CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-COTTON-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-WICHITA-
KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...ALVA...CHEROKEE...MEDFORD...
PONCA CITY...ARNETT...WOODWARD...FAIRVIEW...ENID...PERRY ...
CHEYENNE...TALOGA...WEATHERFORD...CLINTON...WATONG A...
KINGFISHER...GUTHRIE...STILLWATER...ELK CITY...SAYRE...CORDELL...
ANADARKO...YUKON...EL RENO...MUSTANG...OKLAHOMA CITY...CHANDLER...
CHICKASHA...PURCELL...NORMAN...MOORE...SHAWNEE...H OLLIS...
MANGUM...HOBART...ALTUS...FREDERICK...LAWTON...DUN CAN...
PAULS VALLEY...WALTERS...QUANAH...CHILLICOTHE...CROWELL. ..
VERNON...WICHITA FALLS...MUNDAY...KNOX CITY...SEYMOUR...
ARCHER CITY...HOLLIDAY...LAKESIDE CITY
335 PM CST THU DEC 24 2015

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

* TIMING...LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

* MAIN IMPACT...COMBINED SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 10
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL... WESTERN...
SOUTHWESTERN... AND NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND PORTIONS OF
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. ICE ACCUMULATIONS DUE TO FREEZING RAIN NEAR
ONE QUARTER TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NEAR THE I44 CORRIDOR.

* OTHER IMPACTS...STRONG NORTH WINDS COULD RESULT IN WHITE OUT
CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA. THESE WINDS MAY
ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASED NUMBER OF POWER OUTAGES ACROSS
THE REGION...EVEN IF ONLY LIGHT ICING AMOUNTS OCCUR.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

KEEP UP WITH THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION...ESPECIALLY IF YOU
PLAN TO TRAVEL SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. PREPARE FOR POWER OUTAGES
NOW.

[Anonymous.]

This afternoon's GFS:



It is concerning how wildly different he NAM is from the GFS. One of them has to be out to lunch, we just aren't sure which one. NAM keeps most of C OK at temperatures that will not result in winter storm criteria until late Sunday night.

Also GFS is indicating thundersnow conditions early monday morning. Could be blizzard like conditions for anyone attempting to get to work.

[Bunty]

Weatherman Aaron Tuttle's last Christmas Eve weather update:

Christmas Eve Update:

Good grief Charlie Brown! Models are supposed to do better closer to an event. These are still all over the place. An upper low is a weatherman's woe fo sho. So here's the dilly-o...
Cold air a little delayed, so rain for Saturday for all in OK. Snow/ice mix west. By Sunday morning W 1/3 of OK getting freezing rain and sleet. Depending on what model you buy into, this can include parts of C OK. As the day goes on that line doesn't move much. So in OKC it's either freezing rain or just a cold rain at 34 degrees or a mix of both, all plausible. The more west you go of I-35 the more freezing rain/sleet you will encounter. Amounts substantial, about an inch or so west and rain totals in C OK around 3" (hopefully not much of that ice) and E/SE OK 5". It may transition to blowing snow in parts of W OK by afternoon, so blizzard conditions will begin there as a result.

By Monday morning, it's all snow over C/W OK, still rain E. Snow lingers into the mid afternoon. Amounts could be pretty ridiculous in that 6-9 hour window. With snowfall rates of 1" or more per hour that can add up fast. Temperatures could actually hover just a degree or two above freezing across C OK and it wouldn't matter, as it would fall too heavy for melting to be an issue. Farther west, no problem with cold air and that goes for NW OK also where a foot in some places isn't too far fetched.

That's it for now. Hopefully models will do a better job tomorrow, but that's my best guess tonight. I'll update again after the new data trickles in. Pass it on and again Merry Christmas! -AT

[Anonymous.]

GFS trending back to the north and west with track the last two runs.

NAM has been locked on the NW track for the entirety. Could be an indication that the GFS has been out to lunch. Will have to keep watching the next 36 hours to see.

This scenario would mean warmer atmosphere profiles for C OK and limit icing and snow. This scenario still produces heavy snow Monday morning, but not on levels shown in previous runs. Think closer to 3" rather than 10" for C OK.



Again, this is all very tricky as it is determined by the track of the low once it ejects out of the southwest. The further east it travels in TX before jogging northeast through OK - the more it pulls the freezing precip. line to the east. Also if the track ends up being even further north and west than the NW track is indicated (possibility) - it would result in the dryslot scenario for most of SW and C OK.

[turnpup]

Thanks for the update, Anon. Keeping fingers crossed for us to be in the dry slot or just above-freezing rain here in OKC. It's our little girl's 9th birthday on Sunday, and we have a big party planned. We need people to be able to get here!

[OKCRT]

Please no more ice. I don't think I can get anymore limbs on my section curb. Saw the Google car a couple of days ago zipping around Mustang. It's going to look like everybody has a Beaver Dam in front of their house.

Let it snow let it snow let it snow... But no ice please. Blizzard? No problem. Foot of snow? No problem. Just not ice.

[Achilleslastand]

Don't want the ice or the rain. Give us some healthy amounts of snow, that being said I'm betting the metro only gets a inch or 2.

[OKCRT]

Don't want the ice or the rain. Give us some healthy amounts of snow, that being said I'm betting the metro only gets a inch or 2.

I know I am prob. the opposite from most folks but I enjoyed the Christmas Eve Blizzard of 2009. I wouldn't mind having another one of those type events.

Just make a big pot of stew,chili,homemade turkey pot pie, hot chocolate,coffee and some good movies and you will be fine.

[NikonNurse]

I know I am prob. the opposite from most folks but I enjoyed the Christmas Eve Blizzard of 2009. I wouldn't mind having another one of those type events.

Just make a big pot of stew,chili,homemade turkey pot pie, hot chocolate,coffee and some good movies and you will be fine.

Im the same way, but I would like to keep the power and the internet on if Im stuck inside with a teenager...

[okatty]

Multiple fatalities and large numbers of injuries and misery for thousands = blizzard of 2009.

A Review of the December 24, 2009 Christmas Eve Blizzard

[ljbab728]

I know I am prob. the opposite from most folks but I enjoyed the Christmas Eve Blizzard of 2009. I wouldn't mind having another one of those type events.

Just make a big pot of stew,chili,homemade turkey pot pie, hot chocolate,coffee and some good movies and you will be fine.

That only works for people who don't have jobs they have to go to.

[OKCRT]

That only works for people who don't have jobs they have to go to.

This is true. Well it's looking like just rain from this storm so no blizzard warnings will be issued. The forecast changes every time I look at it. Latest forecast shows less than 1 inch of snow.