Sears or JCP who will die first?

[Jon27]

There are two spaces in that building that are for lease. Sears isn't for lease as far as I know.

Didn't realize Sears wasn't taking up that whole building. What are they going to sell in the small of a space? Will it just be Craftsman tools, and appliance ordering?

[Soonerman]

They might sell some electronics as well.

[bchris02]

Sears is for sure the first to go. The current CEO has been on a path of closing stores to liquidate the company in a controlled manner. I think they see the writing on the wall and are just trying to keep the place from going into a firesale. This way they can control more of the decline. The lack of investment in ANY stores hasn't helped to keep them going. Sears lost its purpose a LONG time ago in trying to be too many things. The idea of the department store has changed, and having everything from clothes/tools/electronics/applicanes/housewares/etc. doesn't work. You really need to divide up and decide what you're doing.

From the tools and appliances side, they are falling because of the crappy service they offer and the crappy employee attitudes. Who wants to shop with someone that's rude and doesn't really know what they're doing? From the employee's side, why give a crap when your employer is treating you like dirt? They are following the same employee model Kmart did, which as to treat the employee base like a revolving door....who cares if you treat them bad because there is always someone to replace you in 24 hours. I actually had a kmart manager say that during business hours...called every employee to the front of the store to say that because someone mouthed off to her....both in front of all the customers. Turned out she had been drinking more than just water in her cup and she got fired a week later, but it was the general idea of managers. You invest in your employees, and things will turn around because your employees will be GOOD sales people...even being able to sell a bad product.

Choosing crappy clothing lines also didn't help. There are enough Kohl's and Penny's out there (and you see how well they are doing). Sears wants to survive at all, they need to offer something that draws people in. WalMart sales better quality stuff than Sears!!!! HOW SAD IS THAT! I think Sear's day in the department store world is done. If they can refocus on the hard side instead of the soft side, maybe they can get somewhere. But really, there are too many players in those fields to make it work. Sears is doomed and there isn't anything that's gonna keep it from happening.

You hit the nail on the head.

Sears seems to not only be living pre-Internet, but pre-Wal-Mart. I am really surprised they haven't already seen their demise.

[jn1780]

The Sears store at Quail Springs still has a coming soon banner displayed in their store. How long has the building been done? Doesn't seem like a good sign.

[bluedogok]

If you like business books, there is an interesting one written about Sears called The Big Store: Inside the Crisis and Revolution at Sears, about the rise and decline of Sears. It was published in 1987 so that kind of tells you that in 27 years they still haven't adapted. One line in the book talks about the threat that Walmart posed to Sears and the decision to go discount is hard when you are sitting in granite encrusted offices on the 100th floor of the (then) tallest skyscraper. They stated how Walmart was a discounter at heart and their offices (when Sam was still alive) reflected that.

Amazon - The Big Store: Inside the Crisis and Revolution at Sears

[Jon27]

Amazon - The Big Store: Inside the Crisis and Revolution at Sears

Does anyone else think it's ironic that Amazon is selling this book? Makes you wonder if some new retail giant with a business model we've never dreamed of will ever be selling this book about Amazon's fall one day.

[bluedogok]

Does anyone else think it's ironic that Amazon is selling this book? Makes you wonder if some new retail giant with a business model we've never dreamed of will ever be selling this book about Amazon's fall one day.

I kind of caught that when I posted it.....

I bought the book in the late 80's or early 90's in a closeout bin somewhere, bought a lot of business books that way back then.

[Dubya61]

Does anyone else think it's ironic that Amazon is selling this book? Makes you wonder if some new retail giant with a business model we've never dreamed of will ever be selling this book about Amazon's fall one day.

Jeff Bezos says he fully expects Amazon to wane away and expire.

Companies have short life spans Charlie. And Amazon will be disrupted one day.

(from his 60 Minutes interview)

[Jon27]

Jeff Bezos says he fully expects Amazon to wane away and expire.

(from his 60 Minutes interview)

I need to see if I can find that interview, and watch it! Hopefully they don't expire before my Prime membership is up

[Just the facts]

I went into my local JC Penny last week for the first time in at least 8 years and it was like stepping into a time machine. They just need to gut that whole store down to the steel skeleton and rebuild it.

Here are a couple of things I noticed:
1) Mannequins at the entrance were nude. Being nude wasn't the problem, the fact that their prime selling space wasn't selling anything is the problem.
2) The ceiling was very low and consisted of those 1980's acoustic false ceiling tiles.
3) The display cases were from the 1970s and bathed in yellow light which made everything look dingy
4) The escalators to the second floor were completely enclosed in a drywall tunnel which blocked sight lines, made the store look smaller, and prevented people on the escalator from viewing any merchandise.

Anyhow, I bought my watch battery so I probably wont be back in the store for at least 4 more years.

[ylouder]

I've always thought the jcp that I've been to in the okc area have always been busy and relatively updated in comparison to other retailers.

Now sears, I used to be a big fan before craftsman got outsourced and it being impossible to find anyone who works there with even the slightest interest or knowledge to help you. Years ago I went for a push craftsman mower, left and went to lowes to buy a lawn boy. More recently went to go buy a craftsman riding mower, left and went to go buy a jdeere rider instead.

Each time no one was interested in helping and the products have been cheaper out.

[Plutonic Panda]

I went into my local JC Penny last week for the first time in at least 8 years and it was like stepping into a time machine. They just need to gut that whole store down to the steel skeleton and rebuild it.

Here are a couple of things I noticed:
1) Mannequins at the entrance were nude. Being nude wasn't the problem, the fact that their prime selling space wasn't selling anything is the problem.
2) The ceiling was very low and consisted of those 1980's acoustic false ceiling tiles.
3) The display cases were from the 1970s and bathed in yellow light which made everything look dingy
4) The escalators to the second floor were completely enclosed in a drywall tunnel which blocked sight lines, made the store look smaller, and prevented people on the escalator from viewing any merchandise.

Anyhow, I bought my watch battery so I probably wont be back in the store for at least 4 more years.

Went into the JCP at Quail Springs and it was a joke.

[bchris02]

With Von Maur coming in, all the existing QSM anchors need facelifts. They are all straight out of 1987.

[SoonerDave]

Jeff Bezos says he fully expects Amazon to wane away and expire.

(from his 60 Minutes interview)

Empires like this seemingly implode through entirely unpredicted forces, victims of their own empiric nature almost.

I mean, think about it - no one would have predicted IBM's computing dominance to fail back in the 70's, but it did. No one would have challenged the dominance of AT&T, until they did. No one would have predicted the end of newspapers and magazines, until it happened (okay, overstated slightly, but you get the point). Heck, not even 10-15 years ago, everyone was worried about the ubiquity/semi-monopoly nature of Microsoft, and now they're struggling to get 10-15% market penetration for their flagship OS.

Point being that big, dominating organizations, one with monopoly-like qualities (but not necessarily actual monopolies themselves) somehow manage to self-destruct - collapse under their own weight, as it were....and typically in ways no one would possibly have predicted or foreseen.

[Just the facts]

The reason these companies rise and fall is because they are built using the growth model - and it isn't sustainable because nothing grows forever. Take Walmart as an example, most of the income at Walmart is derived from new store openings, but the larger they get the more stores they have to open to keep the rate of growth going. Once the rate of growth declines they can't afford to expand (money for expansion comes from income derived from the growth model) and are eventually forced to rely on same store sales, of which there isn't enough revenue to keep underperforming stores from closing. The companies then try closing stores and laying off workers to keep the bottom line in the black, but just like the growth model can't work forever, neither can the shrink model - so they just fade away into the night and the next growth model company steps up to the plate.

[Dubya61]

Empires like this seemingly implode through entirely unpredicted forces, victims of their own empiric nature almost.

I mean, think about it - no one would have predicted IBM's computing dominance to fail back in the 70's, but it did. No one would have challenged the dominance of AT&T, until they did. No one would have predicted the end of newspapers and magazines, until it happened (okay, overstated slightly, but you get the point). Heck, not even 10-15 years ago, everyone was worried about the ubiquity/semi-monopoly nature of Microsoft, and now they're struggling to get 10-15% market penetration for their flagship OS.

Point being that big, dominating organizations, one with monopoly-like qualities (but not necessarily actual monopolies themselves) somehow manage to self-destruct - collapse under their own weight, as it were....and typically in ways no one would possibly have predicted or foreseen.

I see GM in this description, too. I think GM saw GM in this description, too, when they created Saturn. They discovered they were getting hammered in the small car market and decided to forge this new brand that would start entirely from scratch. Sadly, they couldn't follow through and let Saturn grow into an existence of its own and started making Saab and Opel the thing to clone for small cars. Further, just when Saturn started to make a go of it, (the crash(?) of) 2008 came along and Saturn fell victim to brand contraction.

[Plutonic Panda]

The reason these companies rise and fall is because they are built using the growth model - and it isn't sustainable because nothing grows forever. Take Walmart as an example, most of the income at Walmart is derived from new store openings, but the larger they get the more stores they have to open to keep the rate of growth going. Once the rate of growth declines they can't afford to expand (money for expansion comes from income derived from the growth model) and are eventually forced to rely on same store sales, of which there isn't enough revenue to keep underperforming stores from closing. The companies then try closing stores and laying off workers to keep the bottom line in the black, but just like the growth model can't work forever, neither can the shrink model - so they just fade away into the night and the next growth model company steps up to the plate.

now I'm sure you likely know more about economics than I do at this point, but I believe it is a bit more complicated than that.

[bchris02]

The reason these companies rise and fall is because they are built using the growth model - and it isn't sustainable because nothing grows forever. Take Walmart as an example, most of the income at Walmart is derived from new store openings, but the larger they get the more stores they have to open to keep the rate of growth going. Once the rate of growth declines they can't afford to expand (money for expansion comes from income derived from the growth model) and are eventually forced to rely on same store sales, of which there isn't enough revenue to keep underperforming stores from closing. The companies then try closing stores and laying off workers to keep the bottom line in the black, but just like the growth model can't work forever, neither can the shrink model - so they just fade away into the night and the next growth model company steps up to the plate.

I do think its possible for a chain to find a sweet spot between the two models in which they don't go too crazy with store openings to maximize the amount of profitable locations. In addition, unprofitable stores would be closed.

[Dubya61]

I do think its possible for a chain to find a sweet spot between the two models in which they don't go too crazy with store openings to maximize the amount of profitable locations. In addition, unprofitable stores would be closed.

I thought Disney did that with their stores only being open for a while here and there.

[bluedogok]

The reason these companies rise and fall is because they are built using the growth model - and it isn't sustainable because nothing grows forever. Take Walmart as an example, most of the income at Walmart is derived from new store openings, but the larger they get the more stores they have to open to keep the rate of growth going. Once the rate of growth declines they can't afford to expand (money for expansion comes from income derived from the growth model) and are eventually forced to rely on same store sales, of which there isn't enough revenue to keep underperforming stores from closing. The companies then try closing stores and laying off workers to keep the bottom line in the black, but just like the growth model can't work forever, neither can the shrink model - so they just fade away into the night and the next growth model company steps up to the plate.

...but all Wall Street cares about is growth, not long term health or viability of companies. The entire "investment" culture is all built on pump and dump and profit take on the transaction.

[bluedogok]

I went into my local JC Penny last week for the first time in at least 8 years and it was like stepping into a time machine. They just need to gut that whole store down to the steel skeleton and rebuild it.

Here are a couple of things I noticed:
1) Mannequins at the entrance were nude. Being nude wasn't the problem, the fact that their prime selling space wasn't selling anything is the problem.
2) The ceiling was very low and consisted of those 1980's acoustic false ceiling tiles.
3) The display cases were from the 1970s and bathed in yellow light which made everything look dingy
4) The escalators to the second floor were completely enclosed in a drywall tunnel which blocked sight lines, made the store look smaller, and prevented people on the escalator from viewing any merchandise.

Anyhow, I bought my watch battery so I probably wont be back in the store for at least 4 more years.

When I redid the Midland (TX) Park Mall for Simon properties I so wanted to rip all those massive, heavy and low ceilings out of there, that was so popular in the late 70's when that mall was built. We didn't have the budget for that, we ended up painting them all white instead of the dark tan/brown that they were. We replaced all the flooring (limestone look tile) and did new entries. It did make quite a difference.

[bchris02]

...but all Wall Street cares about is growth, not long term health or viability of companies. The entire "investment" culture is all built on pump and dump and profit take on the transaction.

Correct. An extremely profitable company could make the same amount of profit as the previous year yet the stock would fall through the floor because there wasn't an increase. Everyone has to admit that isn't sustainable long term. Once a retail chain reaches maturity, it has to adapt or it will go by the wayside. Think about names like Circuit City, CompUSA, Border's, Montgomery Ward, Service Merchandise, etc, etc, etc. Even K-Mart, which ruled the '80s for discount shopping, is going by the wayside (Does OKC even have a K-Mart anymore?) All of those retailers had times where it looked like the golden days would never end.

[bluedogok]

The only time that I remember K-Mart in OKC was after they bought out Venture, there may have been one in Yukon or El Reno. I know there was one in Tulsa and Lawton. We still have a few open here in the Denver area, i Have been to it once or twice.

[bchris02]

The only time that I remember K-Mart in OKC was after they bought out Venture, there may have been one in Yukon or El Reno. I know there was one in Tulsa and Lawton. We still have a few open here in the Denver area, i Have been to it once or twice.

OKC used to have one on S Shields and I-240 and another at Sooner Rd and Reno in Midwest City. I don't know about the northside but I am sure there were some.

K-Mart is a perfect example of a retailer that has not adapted to change and thus been squeezed out of the marketplace. Nobody needs K-Mart when you have Wal-Mart and Target. Do you have a need to ever go? I went once in Charlotte and didn't buy anything and there was virtually nobody in the store other than employees. I think it's too late to save the store. It maybe could have been saved if they would have done a brand refresh in the early 2000s and distinguished themselves from Wal-Mart and Target.

Here is an interesting article about K-Mart and there are some telling pictures at the bottom of the article that show what K-Mart is today. I think you could apply the same thing to Sears for the most part.

http://beluscapitaladvisors.com/2013...ht-front-eyes/

[Soonerman]

The only time that I remember K-Mart in OKC was after they bought out Venture, there may have been one in Yukon or El Reno. I know there was one in Tulsa and Lawton. We still have a few open here in the Denver area, i Have been to it once or twice.

I believe Shawnee still has a Kmart.