2013 Tropical Weather Discussion

[s00nr1]

I'm going to be in New Orleans the 25th-28th so I'll be keeping a close eye on the Gulf.

[venture]

This is Invest 95L, soon to be Tropical Depression 11.



CDO (central dense overcast) is really increasing around the very apparent center of circulation. Seems like this is going to be a pretty potent low once it hits water.

[venture]

Models are really starting to focus on a US landfall now along the Gulf Coast. 06Z (early this morning) HWRF model run isn't pretty, but keep in mind this is just one out of a dozen or so models being used to forecast. This has a category 4 hurricane making landfall in Northern Florida just south of the Panhandle.

[adaniel]

I just got back from Destin yesterday. We were just remarking on how strong the waves were on Tuesday despite sunny great weather. It very well may have come from this.

If it hits that area it would probably be the *least* bad option considering the Big Bend area isn't very populated.

[venture]

I just got back from Destin yesterday. We were just remarking on how strong the waves were on Tuesday despite sunny great weather. It very well may have come from this.

If it hits that area it would probably be the *least* bad option considering the Big Bend area isn't very populated.

Yeah the problem with Gulf tropical systems, there is really only one small way out without hitting land, and I can't remember it ever happening.

[venture]

So the good news today is that the system in the Bay of Campeche is struggling to get going. The circulation is definitely not as well defined as it was overland. Hurricane hunter flight for today was cancelled. Most models have made some big changes today compared to yesterday and are now taking it just off the Mexican coast and stalling it out for the next several days. They are split on what happens after that. Some take into Mexico others take it North along the coast into Texas or Louisiana.

[venture]

Nice batch of storms with heavy rain from Newcastle/Tuttle back to the SW through Chickasha and Apache. Everything moving rough NNE to NE. Some more isolated stuff from Norman down to Purcell. Strongest stuff right now is over Tulsa and east of Chickasha.

Main rule today gusts to 50, maybe some small hail, and buckets of water. Thanks Manuel.

[venture]

Invest 95 is just looking terrible right now. Hardly any clouds near the center of circulation. Chances of this developing continue to drop.

[kelroy55]

Started getting the line of rain coming up from the south last night and looks like a good all day rain

[venture]

Invest 95 is done. It will be absorbed by the front that moved through and the moisture will go Northeast.

[venture]

Advisories started for TD 11 way out in the Atlantic.

Tropical Depression ELEVEN

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[venture]

Invest 97 in the Caribbean looks like it could move up over Florida late this week. We'll see if that actually happens though.

[venture]

Busy weekend and the chat room will be open through this as well if it happens.

Potential "Karen" making landfall in north central Gulf Coast over the weekend.

[venture]

Very close to have TD 12 if not TS Karen entering the Gulf. Beautiful outflow pattern over the system already helping evacuation that is needed to strengthen. Have seen a lot of the convection weaken, but in the last hour or so have started to see a burst start up near the center.



Model Forecasts...

[venture]

Recon is in right now and has found Tropical Storm force winds. Still working on identifying if there is a closed circulation. If they find this, it is going right to Karen and skipping the TD step.

Reports oil rigs have already enacted evacuation protocols. Glad I filled up today.

[venture]

Fuel for Karen as she forms and moves into the Gulf. You don't see it any better...

[venture]

Model solutions for tonight...

GFS - Strong Tropical Storm making landfall 4AM Sunday CDT in the FL Panhandle.

NAM - Weak Tropical Storm making landfall 1AM Saturday CDT in South Central Louisiana.

GFDL - Strong Tropical Storm (52 kts) making landfall 7AM Saturday CDT in Southern Mississippi.

HWRF - Weak Tropical Storm (38 kts) making landfall 7PM Sunday CDT in the FL Panhandle.

Satellite looks amazing tonight with the explosive convection developing over the center.

[Anonymous.]

Finally some legitimate GOM action.

If she can fan out her bands and fight the dry air, I think it could be a weak hurricane before landfall.

[venture]

Here are the links for Karen who has winds to 65 mph already.

Tropical Storm KAREN

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Hurricane Wind Speed Probability

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Warnings/Cone Interactive Map	Warnings/Cone Static Images	Warnings and Surface Wind	Mariner's 1-2-3 Rule	Wind History
Storm Surge Probabilities Storm Surge Exceedance

[Dustin]

I'm currently in Florida right now in Melbourne. Glad this thing missed us. Although, I was kinda hoping to see a storm like this firsthand.

[Bunty]

One of the strongest typhoons in years is getting set to hit the Philippines. Super Typhoon Haiyan, strongest storm of 2013, heads for Philippines - CNN.com

[BG918]

The Pacific and Indian oceans have had some monster storms this season while this has been one of the calmest seasons in recent memory for the Atlantic. Hoping for the best over there but developing countries like the Philippiines usually do not fare well with large storms like this, because of the lack of communications and subsequent disaster response in rural areas. Though as we saw in India this year it has gotten a lot better.

[Bunty]

Discharge from dam in Taiwan after a half meter of rain fell:

[Dustin]

Wow, thats crazy.