CFB Conference Realignment Continues

[ou48A]

Sorry but that is flat out incorrect. NY is a market that does not care about college football in proportion to its size. When it does, it is more about Notre Dame than Rutgers. Even still, Syracuse and UConn carry as much weight as Rutgers. According to the NYTimes, so does Michigan and Penn State. Come on -- if Rutgers were the big NYC draw, they would have been in a major conference long ago. Rutgers brings as many total eyes to televisions as Kentucky, Boston College, or Texas Tech. In the Big 10, they will be the second smallest draw other than Maryland, which brings a fan base comparable to Kansas State or TCU.

Jersey, you might want to believe that Jersey is either this or that, but that is simply untrue. People vote with their viewing habits, and Rutgers is bringing the B10 a Texas Tech and nothing more.

It doesn't really matter if NY cares about college football. Like I said,it's all about the tv sets and there are a bunch of tv sets that pay a monthly subscription. They might be watching something other than football but that football channel is still part of the plan they are paying for. That is how these schools are making so much money. And that is why the Big 12 is falling behind. The Big 12 just doesn't have the tv sets to compete with these other conferences. TV sets = dollars

Actually it’s a bit of both……
Rutgers is not a great TV draw on the over the air networks such as ABC and don’t move the TV contract needle on first and second tier contracts in the way that adding a university like Texas, ND or even OU would for the B1G.

But just as OKCRT indicates the cable TV subscribers pay, rather they want to or not, a certain amount of money on their monthly bill for the B1G TV network….. This money is divided up among all B1G conference members equally........ but since there are so many TV cable subscribers in the Rutgers market it adds up to a lot of money and they are paying money to the B1G rather they care about Rutgers or not. But this is almost irrelevant to the rest of the B1G since they are making so much more money.

[ou48A]

The OU FOX third tier TV deal works similarly in that if your subscribing to cable TV in our area some of your monthly bill (a very small amount) is going to OU rather you want it or not.
OU officials are said to be very happy with OU’s 3T, TV deal while the OSU president indicated that the Big 12 should split the 3T money among Big 12 conference members. Splitting the 3T money in the Big 12 or old Big 8 has never been done and is so unrealistic that it would be guaranteed to split up the Big 12 conference. This is extremely short sighted thinking because splitting up the conference would cost the lower revenue Big 12 university’s far more money than they would ever gain though 3T revenue sharing. They would be relegated in most case to a much lower paying (TV contracts/ bowls) conference.

[boitoirich]

It doesn't really matter if NY cares about college football. Like I said,it's all about the tv sets and there are a bunch of tv sets that pay a monthly subscription. They might be watching something other than football but that football channel is still part of the plan they are paying for. That is how these schools are making so much money. And that is why the Big 12 is falling behind. The Big 12 just doesn't have the tv sets to compete with these other conferences. TV sets = dollars

I hear what you're saying, and you bring up some good points -- but there's really nothing to panic about. Big 12 schools stand to make plenty. If there were an existential threat, UT and OU would be at the lead making moves. Now when the TV contract expires (and at the same time the grant of rights expires), look to see if it still makes sense to keep the band together.

[bluedogok]

Most of the last realignment had little to do with fan base size and whether people actually watch the games, it had everything to do with potential viewers in a market and what numbers they could sell to advertisers.

[boitoirich]

Most of the last realignment had little to do with fan base size and whether people actually watch the games, it had everything to do with potential viewers in a market and what numbers they could sell to advertisers.

Absolutely right. And, at bottom, that's what OKCRT is worried about. But those same conditions that created that instability do not exist today. 3 conferences at at 14 with no one to cannabilize because of grant of rights agreements (which expire in about a decade), and all of the Big 5 conferences are getting paid absurd sums of gold. Now in the mid 2020s, we could have another round of fun.

[bluedogok]

...but do those "grant of rights" agreements survive if NCAA Division I-A dissolves and the top conferences go out on their own? There are a lot of permutations to what may happen by 2020 or later. It is really entering an unknown future. About the only thing that comes close to being comparable is when CART split into IndyCar and CART/ChampCar but even that is a very indirect comparison.

[BoulderSooner]

Yes

[OKCRT]

Grant of rights could easily be negated. If several teams leave the conference there will be no conference and the other teams will flee to wherever they can. Lets just say for example Texas decides to join the Big 10. OU then decides that the sec is the place to be (and it is IMO). KU would also lobby the Big 10 as there have already been whispers about them. These other teams would be searching out for new homes. The grant of rights is not something that binds these teams to some kind of iron clad contract. It can easily be busted up.

[Jersey Boss]

Originally Posted by bluedogok
Most of the last realignment had little to do with fan base size and whether people actually watch the games, it had everything to do with potential viewers in a market and what numbers they could sell to advertisers.

Absolutely right. And, at bottom, that's what OKCRT is worried about. But those same conditions that created that instability do not exist today. 3 conferences at at 14 with no one to cannabilize because of grant of rights agreements (which expire in about a decade), and all of the Big 5 conferences are getting paid absurd sums of gold. Now in the mid 2020s, we could have another round of fun.

Thats the point I was trying to make. There are no central NJ television stations, NYC channels cover this area. The southern part of Jersey is the Philly television market.

[dankrutka]

Grant of rights could easily be negated. If several teams leave the conference there will be no conference and the other teams will flee to wherever they can. Lets just say for example Texas decides to join the Big 10. OU then decides that the sec is the place to be (and it is IMO). KU would also lobby the Big 10 as there have already been whispers about them. These other teams would be searching out for new homes. The grant of rights is not something that binds these teams to some kind of iron clad contract. It can easily be busted up.

Well, Texas would be the one with the problem. They've fashioned a conference where their own network can exist. Neither the Big 10 or the SEC would accept Texas as a member unless they gave up their 3rd tier rights, which they're obviously unwilling to do. So, Texas has huge incentive to keep the conference together, no?

[bluedogok]

I think after something like 5 years ESPN has the right to terminate the LHN contract. If things stay the way they are I could see that happening or at least ESPN not renewing the contract.

[OKCRT]

The Longhorn network is espn. The new sec network is also espn. They could easily come together. I would imagine that espn would love nothing more than to dump the longhorn network and band together with the sec network. The longhorn network is a money loser for espn.