Oklahoma Weather Discussion - February/March 2013

[BoulderSooner]

that would be great

[venture]

Looking at the 12z GFS....another snowfall might be possible Friday afternoon/evening with a fast-moving NW flow system.

Shhh. We weren't suppose to talk about that yet...or next week's.

[kelroy55]

Having a Jeep and knowing how to drive it in snow are two different things.

That is true but I grew up in Nebraska and know how to drive in the snow.

[SoonerDave]

Now, don't be holding out on us with a snow forecast, Venture We snow-types have to grab at whatever crumbs we can get (mind you, not wanting any of the nasty ice business, just some of the pretty fluffy stuff)

[ou48A]

From Aaron Tuttle

Snow Storm Update: Let me start off by saying this is the hardest forecast I've seen in a long time. This is where you can play 3 options, all listed below. Depending on which one pans out, you will either be happy or be mad.

Option 1: Wet bulbing of temperature and dewpoint drop to near freezing along the I-44 corridor with warm air advection stopping short of this boundary over SE OK. Meaning w...e start out your morning drive with snow and it snows all day across OKC metro, with rain across SE OK and of course all snow W/SW/NW OK. As a result, snow totals peak around 8-10" across OKC for the duration of the event which ends by late tomorrow evening.

Option 2: (safe option most forecasters will choose) Temps stay above freezing throughout the day but drop enough to transition from rain to snow around noon over the C OK region producing about half an inch of rain and around 4-5" of snow.

Option 3: Warm air advection stronger than anticipated and it rains all day east of an El Reno line, snow west, and doesn't change over to all snow in metro until 5pm leaving us with .75" of rain and about 2" of snow.

In all of these scenarios, W OK and the TX panhandle get dumped on. A foot of snow is very likely in several areas. The upper level system is actually weakening slowly as it moves across OK so less snow in the East Tuesday evening as a result. May only see a dusting to an inch or two as a result.

As you can see, timing is crucial to snow totals. Also to your attitude when you drive to work in the morning. If you head out and it's already snowing and the forecast wasn't for it to change over until after lunchtime, you'll be upset due to the delay/accidents. If the rain doesn't transition to snow until evening and all we get is a dusting or an inch or two, you'll be upset. So as you can see, there isn't a solution to please everyone.

So here's the take away. We have a winter storm coming. Temperatures will be close to freezing in C OK and west. We are going to get a lot of good precipitation. Amounts ranging anywhere from .50" to 1.25" of liquid equivalent. West it's all snow. East it's pretty much all rain. Central it's a mix. The later the temperatures in the column of the atmosphere cool the less snow. The earlier they cool the more snow. The snow that falls will be large wet flakes and will fall at 1-2"/hour rates accumulating quickly. Ground temps near mid 40s will cool quickly as well so only an inch of melting at most.

Truth is, we cannot give you the exact amount or timing with today's technology/knowledge. We have to guess. At this point, I"m guessing a foot of snow out west, 5-8" central, and 1-2" east with the timing of change over around drive time tomorrow morning in the metro. Snow will start around 2am across W OK/TX. Light rain/showers across S OK at this time moving north. The rain/snow line during the day will likely stall just east of the I-44 boundary say about 30 miles and hang there until late afternoon. That's how close of a call this whole system is for C OK.

[PennyQuilts]

Ugh. In the morning, I'm leaving out of SW OKC around 6:00 am for a class south of Lawton (starts at 9:00). Supposed to start back home at 3:30. Is this going to be a terrible, no good, horrible, bad idea drive?

[Anonymous.]

Tomorrow's afternoon drive in the metro is either going to be very wet, or very slick. Definnitely not dry.


It is seriously going to come down to the temperature setup in C OK. West Central OK is going to get creamed regardless.

[SomeGuy]

So channel 4 said this morning 1-3 inches , I will believe it when I see it. I have an odd feeling we will get 6-9 inches in OKC and west oklahoma will get rained upon

[OKCisOK4me]

Ugh. In the morning, I'm leaving out of SW OKC around 6:00 am for a class south of Lawton (starts at 9:00). Supposed to start back home at 3:30. Is this going to be a terrible, no good, horrible, bad idea drive?

Sounds to me like you wanna play it safe. Just get a hotel room in Lawton and drive back Wednesday.

So channel 4 said this morning 1-3 inches , I will believe it when I see it. I have an odd feeling we will get 6-9 inches in OKC and west oklahoma will get rained upon

I think it was News9 I was watching at noon where the forecaster said it may be in the 40s & 50s in parts of Kansas tomorrow but it'll be dumping snow in W/NW Oklahoma. That's pretty crazy.

[PennyQuilts]

I keep hoping they will reschedule but they haven't yet. Watching it close. Of course, we need the rain so much that even if I miss this class that I've tried to go to for two years, water is water and that is more important.

[s00nr1]

18z NAM is in and it's pretty much more of the same except maybe just slightly further north and west with the rain/snow line. My gut tells me that there simply won't be deep enough cold air in the metro for more than maybe an inch late in the day. Very promising precip amounts regardless:

[adaniel]

If this snow cancels my Taco Tuesday I am going to be sooooooo pissed!

Question to all the weathermen in this thread. Are the amounts predicted so far what is expected to fall or what is excepted to accumulate?

[s00nr1]

Forecasted snowfall totals are for total accumulation.

[kelroy55]

I want a foot of snow so I can go play.... haven't had much rain for mud the past couple years but snow will do

[s00nr1]

18z NAM snowfall estimate:

[s00nr1]

OUN has drastically changed their snowfall forecast map -- thinking nearly all precip in the metro will be rain:

[SoonerDave]

Well, then, so much for that.

[Anonymous.]

OUN must be pretty confident in their forecast.

Still no advisory other than the initial WSWatch.


I would not be so confident with wet bulb temps still below freezing and clear skies above heading into this evening.

[venture]

Winter Storm Watch was expanded into North central OK some...

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
335 PM CST MON FEB 11 2013


OKZ007-012-018-022-120545-
/O.EXA.KOUN.WS.A.0001.130212T0900Z-130213T0000Z/
GRANT-GARFIELD-KINGFISHER-WA****A-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MEDFORD...ENID...KINGFISHER...CORDELL
335 PM CST MON FEB 11 2013


...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM CST TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM CST TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.


* MAIN IMPACT: SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON
TUESDAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.


* OTHER IMPACTS:SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY RESULT IN SLICK AND
HAZARDOUS ROADWAYS TUESDAY.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...


KEEP UP WITH THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION...ESPECIALLY IF YOU
PLAN TO TRAVEL.

[OKCisOK4me]

That's why I think all these forecast models are junk. I'm going to forecast in the "now" tomorrow.

[venture]

OUN must be pretty confident in their forecast.

Still no advisory other than the initial WSWatch.

I would not be so confident with wet bulb temps still below freezing and clear skies above heading into this evening.

Yeah, they are showing a bias towards the air not getting cold enough, fast enough for too much snow. My concern is that this could go wrong for them very quickly and then they are playing catch up with headlines tomorrow. Maybe i'm more cautious than anything, but I would have done a Winter Storm Watch for everywhere north of a Altus - Lawton - Pauls Valley - Ada line. Just too much uncertainty. As much as I dislike the 18Z runs with models...GFS did move the bulk of the heavy snow right over Central OK.

[s00nr1]

Venture I was saying the exact same about an hour ago....that they could be reversing course rather rapidly should the GFS verify. What's the harm in issuing a watch just to be on the safe side?

[bucktalk]

What conditions determine a 'winter storm'? I fail to see that 2-4" of snow is a 'storm'. Snow advisory perhaps. Storm? No.

[Anonymous.]

Moisture streaming up from TX very rapidly ahead of the storm. I wish the clouds would hold off for several more hours and let temps fall more...


This is so complex... I totally understand why the local media and OUN is going with rain in OKC instead of snow. But at the same time they are going to get burned if we go to snow earlier than anticipated.

[s00nr1]

Either way nearly an inch of precip is going to be great.