OKC has already exceeded homicide total from 2011

[LakeEffect]

Good point. I don't really have an educated opinion on this matter, but I'm curious what others think is causing this. By the way, it may have been mentioned upthread, but has our ratio of homicides related to population increased as well, or just the overall total?

Well, we'd have to do a multi-year analysis to really get into the numbers, but for 2012, the rate in increase over 2011 is much greater than the population increase.

Human trafficking seems to be a big issue right now, and I wonder if that is driving some of the more violent gangs. OKC's location along I-40, I-44 and I-35 puts us at a crossroads for violence.

[soonerguru]

Well, we'd have to do a multi-year analysis to really get into the numbers, but for 2012, the rate in increase over 2011 is much greater than the population increase.

Human trafficking seems to be a big issue right now, and I wonder if that is driving some of the more violent gangs. OKC's location along I-40, I-44 and I-35 puts us at a crossroads for violence.

Let's also examine our continued futile war on drugs, which is enabling the dangerously violent drug cartels to expand their profits and presence into our nation. Since OKC is on the aforementioned highway corridor, one would assume we're ground zero for this expanding turf.

We really need the law enforcement community to step up and evolve its position on drugs, particularly marijuana. Drug addiction is a health issue that is being addressed (not really) through the legal system. This is not logical and it's not working. I realize the law enforcement community receives many toys and a lot of funding to continue this failed "war," but changing focus does not mean we would take away their toys.

[catch22]

Huh?? Our homicide rate is skyrocketing and has been all year long. Denying this is really quite head in the sand..

I was having a difficult time conveying what I meant: soonerguru did a better job than I at that:

Good point. I don't really have an educated opinion on this matter, but I'm curious what others think is causing this. By the way, it may have been mentioned upthread, but has our ratio of homicides related to population increased as well, or just the overall total?

And cafeboeuf answered the question I was wondering.

Well, we'd have to do a multi-year analysis to really get into the numbers, but for 2012, the rate in increase over 2011 is much greater than the population increase.

Human trafficking seems to be a big issue right now, and I wonder if that is driving some of the more violent gangs. OKC's location along I-40, I-44 and I-35 puts us at a crossroads for violence.

----

I was saying, Spartan, (or trying to) that there isn't a huge problem if the percentage is the same. Because the pool is growing with the population, so an increase in actual number of crimes is expected to increase with the increase of population. But, as cafeboeuf points out (and which I did not know), the percentage rate is growing faster than the population growth rate, which does in fact mean a problem.

[LakeEffect]

The Oklahoman posted a list of the homicide numbers by year from 1993 on. Oklahoma City homicides: By the numbers | NewsOK.com

If you make that into a chart, you get this: Homicides.pdf

I updated it to remove the bombing, since it's an outlier from a statistical standpoint, and I added the two 2012 homicides that occurred since the article ran.

If I can find some time, I'm going to add recessions and population to that chart to see if there's any correlations...

[Just the facts]

If I can find some time, I'm going to add recessions and population to that chart to see if there's any correlations...

If you have time (and access to the data) see if the murder rate correlates to commute time or new housing starts, although I imagine long-term societal trends don't mesh nicely with the Gregorian calendar.

[LakeEffect]

If you have time (and access to the data) see if the murder rate correlates to commute time or new housing starts, although I imagine long-term societal trends don't mesh nicely with the Gregorian calendar.

If you go long term, there might be something with housing starts and the calendar... commute time, I'd bet against.

[Just the facts]

If you go long term, there might be something with housing starts and the calendar... commute time, I'd bet against.

So you don't think there is a correlation between sprawl and crime?

[soonerguru]

The Oklahoman posted a list of the homicide numbers by year from 1993 on. Oklahoma City homicides: By the numbers | NewsOK.com

If you make that into a chart, you get this: Homicides.pdf

I updated it to remove the bombing, since it's an outlier from a statistical standpoint, and I added the two 2012 homicides that occurred since the article ran.

If I can find some time, I'm going to add recessions and population to that chart to see if there's any correlations...

Be careful with the macroeconomic data, as OKC's economy is often at odds with the national economy. Perhaps local unemployment rate would be an arbiter, although, this year, we have had the lowest unemployment in the nation for large cities, so there doesn't seem to be a correlation there.

[LakeEffect]

So you don't think there is a correlation between sprawl and crime?

Not on its face. Commute time may be a reverse indicator I suppose. Typically, you'd assume the longer the commute, the more safe the homeowner's community... NewsOK highlighted the fact that multiple murders occurred in NE OKC, and you'd ASSUME (need to do more research, certainly) that those residents have a shorter commute.

[LakeEffect]

Be careful with the macroeconomic data, as OKC's economy is often at odds with the national economy. Perhaps local unemployment rate would be an arbiter, although, this year, we have had the lowest unemployment in the nation for large cities, so there doesn't seem to be a correlation there.

Good point, although violent, gang-based crime may play off of the national economy by virtue of the drug trade and human trafficking going through OKC... So many variables in crime statistics...

[Just the facts]

Not on its face. Commute time may be a reverse indicator I suppose. Typically, you'd assume the longer the commute, the more safe the homeowner's community... NewsOK highlighted the fact that multiple murders occurred in NE OKC, and you'd ASSUME (need to do more research, certainly) that those residents have a shorter commute.

Hold on, I am not saying that an individual's chance of being murder is related to that inidividual's commute time. I am saying that as the population sprawls crime increase. One indication of sprawl is average commute time. I guess another way would be to look at lane-miles of road construction. The more lane-miles of road the more crime there is but it might take 10 years or more for the correlation to be noticable. The effects of the road need time to materialize.

Ever noticed how Nichols Hill doesn't have any 4 lane roads other the NW63 and none of their streets have very good street markings, despite the fact that 100% of them have drive for everything.

[soonerguru]

Good point, although violent, gang-based crime may play off of the national economy by virtue of the drug trade and human trafficking going through OKC... So many variables in crime statistics...

True. And this could also relate to my point about our good economy drawing more crime. We have a more lucrative drug market now to fight over.

[soonerguru]

Hold on, I am not saying that an individual's chance of being murder is related to that inidividual's commute time. I am saying that as the population sprawls crime increase. One indication of sprawl is average commute time.

This is true and obvious. Just look at the map the Oklahoman posted about where these murders are occurring. Many of them are happening in former "good areas to move to to avoid crime." Sprawl just produces more blighted areas.

Furthermore, sprawl breaks down communities, leading to more disintegration in the social fabric and more people being disconnected from one another. Prosaic to be sure, but certainly an underlying psychological factor.

[soonerguru]

It would be nice if our society had different priorities:

- It's a lot cheaper to educate someone than to incarcerate them.
- It would be nice if we were concerned about people's health and well being as much as we are their criminality. Wouldn't it be great if we had more health professionals and mental health professionals than cops?
- We have many unfilled jobs; shouldn't we be investing more as a society in job training?

[Just the facts]

This is true and obvious. Just look at the map the Oklahoman posted about where these murders are occurring. Many of them are happening in former "good areas to move to to avoid crime." Sprawl just produces more blighted areas.

Furthermore, sprawl breaks down communities, leading to more disintegration in the social fabric and more people being disconnected from one another. Prosaic to be sure, but certainly an underlying psychological factor.

And the opposite is true as well. Start adding people and crime goes down.

[Just the facts]

It would be nice if our society had different priorities:

- It's a lot cheaper to educate someone than to incarcerate them.
- It would be nice if we were concerned about people's health and well being as much as we are their criminality. Wouldn't it be great if we had more health professionals and mental health professionals than cops?
- We have many unfilled jobs; shouldn't we be investing more as a society in job training?

All that would be great but until we stop doing the things that create those problems in the first place it isn't going to do much good. You can fight a house fire but if you don't stop the arsonist all you do is keep fighting fires.

[LakeEffect]

I'd say there's no correlation between OKC's homicide rate and unemployment rate... Don't have time to do the national comparison at the moment.

[Just the facts]

I'd say there's no correlation between OKC's homicide rate and unemployment rate... Don't have time to do the national comparison at the moment.

Not on a year by year case no. That is the problem so many causal studies miss on. For unemployment to correlate to murders in the same year one would have to assume that you go from employed to murderer in a few months. The relationship might take 10 years to have an effect, and of course the unemployment rate chnage multiple times in 10 years. Long-term trends require long-term causes.

[LakeEffect]

Reading the stories about some of the accused, one might ask how many of the murderers were ever employed to begin with...

[OKCTalker]

I know that it's more complicated than this, but Ivory soap in the mouth and a swat across the bottom during childhood reduces criminal behavior during adulthood.

[soonerguru]

I know that it's more complicated than this, but Ivory soap in the mouth and a swat across the bottom during childhood reduces criminal behavior during adulthood.

Really? So torture and physical assault of children leads to less violence? I'd like to see something backing this up.

[OKCisOK4me]

I'm sure there are plenty of kids that got soap in mouth and swat on butt that turned into bad apples. It's about the environment in which you live and the people that surround you. I wouldn't go so far as to call it torture and physical battery like guru there. I got both those treatments when I was a kid and I've turned out fine.

[soonerguru]

I'm sure there are plenty of kids that got soap in mouth and swat on butt that turned into bad apples. It's about the environment in which you live and the people that surround you. I wouldn't go so far as to call it torture and physical battery like guru there. I got both those treatments when I was a kid and I've turned out fine.

Yes, but we don't hit our children today. We've evolved. This doesn't make them murderers.

[LakeEffect]

Yes, but we don't hit our children today. We've evolved. This doesn't make them murderers.

Ha. What naive world do you live in? I know plenty of parents that still spank once in a while. It might not be belts and wooden spoons, but swatting still happens.

Regardless, that's not really the point of the thread.

[TaoMaas]

I know that it's more complicated than this, but Ivory soap in the mouth and a swat across the bottom during childhood reduces criminal behavior during adulthood.

Didn't pretty much EVERY parent spank their kids in the past? And didn't teachers spank students, too? And yet...our prisons have never been empty.