Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - April 2012

[SoonerDave]

I would be interested to know what they say. I am going to the spring game as well with some coworkers, and my entire time going to OU games I've been lucky to never have to seek shelter from rain, storms, etc. So I'm a bit clueless on their protocol, although you are correct that there is no shortages of basements on campus.

Should the weather forecast hold up Saturday and be as dire as it sounds, it may not be worth the risk to go down there. I would much rather be out $5 than $5000 from hail damage on my car or even worse.

The prospect of hail or other significant car damage is much more concerning to me than being at risk from a tornado for precisely that reason - lots of good steel and concrete buildings with basements, but not too much protection for vehicles.

[ou48A]

I did start completely fresh this time around. So users who were previous approved to post unmoderated will just need to be approved again. I'm still working on the new website a bit today, but will jump into the chat and approve those who post. If you want to get a head start so you are approved for tomorrow/saturday, post a quick comment in the chat or toss me a PM here with your email address.

Thanks.

I will make another post very soon that ask my question about the OU spring football game if that’s Ok?
“Has OU given any consideration of moving the date or time of its spring football game?”

Maybe it might put a bug in somebody’s ear?
I wish OU would move the time up if it looks like a better window of opportunity to play the game.

[ou48A]

My post showed up, thanks

[SoonerDave]

Hey ou48A, I sent a tweet to Kenny Mossman and asked him if the weather issues could affect Red-White game...will let you know what he says.

[ou48A]

I would be interested to know what they say. I am going to the spring game as well with some coworkers, and my entire time going to OU games I've been lucky to never have to seek shelter from rain, storms, etc. So I'm a bit clueless on their protocol, although you are correct that there is no shortages of basements on campus.

Should the weather forecast hold up Saturday and be as dire as it sounds, it may not be worth the risk to go down there. I would much rather be out $5 than $5000 from hail damage on my car or even worse.

If you arrive early enough you could possible park in one of 2 parking garages.
I am taking 19 year old pick up that I almost wish would be destroyed.

I have been though 3 OU football rain / storm delays. One thing I have learned is that I need is a seat cushion because the concrete gets cold and very hard on my skinny old ass.

It will be late tomorrow night before I have a chance to talk with OU security officials. I would image that just the threat of severe weather will hold the crowd down by a lot especially if they don’t tweak the kickoff time.

[SoonerDave]

If you arrive early enough you could possible park in one of 2 parking garages.
I am taking 19 year old pick up that I almost wish would be destroyed.

I have been though 3 OU football rain / storm delays. One thing I have learned is that I need is a seat cushion because the concrete gets cold and very hard on my skinny old ass.

It will be late tomorrow night before I have a chance to talk with OU security officials. I would image that just the threat of severe weather will hold the crowd down by a lot especially if they don’t tweak the kickoff time.

Heck, they didn't start moving kickoffs for weather until sometime in the last few years, so the whole notion is new to me. Been going to OU games since I was about eight, and the first time I remember weather affecting a game was when they started moving afternoon games to evening games due to heat. I got my worst sunburn ever as a kid at the 1978 OU-West Virginia game, where it HAD to be something like 110 deg. in the stadium.

I sat through the worst monsoon EVER at the 1983 OU Nebraska game, and I remember the PA announcer telling everyone that "hail was expected," but I don't think one soul that stadium (and they darned sure didn't evacuate LOL).

The Tech rain fiasco from last season was one of the worst home game weather experiences ever. Hope I never have to repeat it.

Newer reports I'm hearing are concurring with Venture, saying that storms may hold off til late afternoon Saturday but that's pretty iffy. I presume that's just other folks reading the GFS...

[ou48A]

Hey ou48A, I sent a tweet to Kenny Mossman and asked him if the weather issues could affect Red-White game...will let you know what he says.

Thanks, that’s a good idea.
It may be a little soon to know if they need to tweak the kickoff time but they need to be aware of the threat.
Let us all know what he says.

[Tydude]

Rick from KOCO 5 says is he very worried about Saturday Night storms because they could be some Night times tornadoes

[ou48A]

Heck, they didn't start moving kickoffs for weather until sometime in the last few years, so the whole notion is new to me. Been going to OU games since I was about eight, and the first time I remember weather affecting a game was when they started moving afternoon games to evening games due to heat. I got my worst sunburn ever as a kid at the 1978 OU-West Virginia game, where it HAD to be something like 110 deg. in the stadium.

I sat through the worst monsoon EVER at the 1983 OU Nebraska game, and I remember the PA announcer telling everyone that "hail was expected," but I don't think one soul that stadium (and they darned sure didn't evacuate LOL).

The Tech rain fiasco from last season was one of the worst home game weather experiences ever. Hope I never have to repeat it.

Newer reports I'm hearing are concurring with Venture, saying that storms may hold off til late afternoon Saturday but that's pretty iffy. I presume that's just other folks reading the GFS...

I was at that West Virginia game too. I had worked outside all summer and had a good tan so I didn’t burn in spite of siting in the full sun on the east side. I was 20 years old and in pretty good condition so it didn’t bother me too much…… but they did haul a lot of people out of the stadium that day. This was back in the days of astro turf. It was just like playing on hot concrete, the heat radiated back into the stadium. The worst part of the day for me came on the drive home (120 mile trip) in a car that the air condition had broken on trip earlier that day.
Wilkinson, Switzer and others wanted the news of the games to be in the eastern newspapers for poll votes, so that’s why we didn’t have good quality permanent lights until the 1996 season.

I was at the 1983 OU Nebraska game too but perhaps the most uncomfortable I ever was at an OU home game was in 1988 when we played Nebraska in a steady rain and with temp’s of about 33 degrees. I stayed for the entire game as I always do (Neb won 7 to 3) but I now have much better rain/ game gear. I went to the 1993 OU NEB game in Lincoln. It was brutal. There was snow on the ground and in the stadium, kick off temps were about 13 degrees with a wind gusting to at least 40 but it seemed worse because of the way the wind funneled its self though the stadium. The stadium stay packed until the end. I bought artic rated gear for my wife and I after that game experience.

[Tydude]

Mesoscale discussion 0500
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0334 pm cdt thu apr 12 2012

areas affected...nwrn tx through wrn ok

concerning...severe potential...watch possible

valid 122034z - 122200z

severe storms could develop from nwrn tx through wrn ok during next
few hours. Supercells capable of very large hail and isolated
tornadoes will be the main threats.

The atmosphere has destabilized in moist axis east of the dryline
from wrn tx nwd through wrn ok with mlcape to 2000 j/kg and 7.5 c/km
mid level lapse rates. A weak boundary was also indicated from
n-cntrl nwwd through nwrn tx along the ok/tx border. North of this
feature winds are backed esely resulting in 200-250 m2/s2 effective
storm relative helicity. Low clouds continue to diminish from the
west within zone of deeper mixing across nwrn tx where a field of
cumulus and a few showers have developed. Isolated storms may
eventually form where this zone intersects the boundary from nwrn tx
into swrn ok. Effective bulk shear from 40-45 kt favors
supercells...and 0-1 km hodograph size will increase further as the
low level jet strengthens during the evening.

[venture]

Watching some cells trying to go up over NW TX. Nothing getting established yet. Skies are clearing pretty good and CU development well underway. Stay tuned.

[ou48A]

Smart move ....... OU has moved its baseball games new dates and times.

http://www.soonersports.com/sp.../041212aaa.html

[Thunder]

This is not looking good on my end. Repeated tarot card readings continue to show extremely bad outlook for Oklahoma. I'm not going to go into much details as to not spark a statewide panic, but just be seriously prepared.

[venture]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0503
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0606 PM CDT THU APR 12 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN TX PANHANDLE/NORTHWEST TX INTO FAR WESTERN
OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 122306Z - 130100Z

AS A FOLLOW-UP TO MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 500...CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE
STILL BEING CLOSELY MONITORED FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST TX/EASTERN TX PANHANDLE INTO FAR WESTERN OK
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. INCIPIENT SIGNS/INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF DEEP
CONVECTIVE INITIATION COULD PROMPT A WATCH ISSUANCE.

AFTER A BOUT OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING OR AT LEAST NEBULOUS FORCING FOR
ASCENT ALOFT...WATER VAPOR/VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS /EG. REFERENCE
CIRRUS ACROSS NM INTO FAR WEST TX AND TECUMCARI NM WIND PROFILER/
IMPLY THAT THE LEADING EDGE OF HEIGHT FALLS/FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
INFLUENCE THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING. THE DRYLINE HAS RECENTLY
MIXED A BIT EASTWARD ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE...WITH DEDUCED SIGNS OF
INCREASING MASS CONVERGENCE PER SURFACE OBS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
DRYLINE AND A NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ARCING DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
BOUNDARY/WEAK WARM FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE/SOUTHWEST
OK/WESTERN PART OF NORTH TX. ACCORDINGLY...VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS
DO REFLECT A DEGREE OF DEEPENING/THICKENING OF THE CU FIELD NEAR THE
CDS AND TX/OK BORDER VICINITY.

WHILE THE LIKELIHOOD/EXTENT OF DEEP CONVECTIVE IMITATION IS STILL
UNCERTAIN...THE AFOREMENTIONED CORRIDOR APPEARS CONDITIONALLY MOST
FAVORABLE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS NOTION IS SUPPORTED BY GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE 18Z
NAM/GFS...WITH EACH INDICATIVE OF CONVECTION PRECIPITATION BETWEEN
00Z-03Z. SHOULD SUCH DEVELOPMENT OCCUR...SUPERCELLS WOULD BE
PROBABLE WITHIN AN UNSTABLE /2000 J PER KG MLCAPE/ AND AMPLE
VERTICAL SHEAR /45 KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR/ ENVIRONMENT...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A LARGE HAIL/TORNADO THREAT.

..GUYER.. 04/12/2012

[Tydude]

i am worried that this storm can come and hit the metro late saturday and Early Sunday

[Easy180]

No mention of tornadoes on the Norman hazardous outlook for days 2-7...This mean anything or just hesitant to mention them at this point?


HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
625 PM CDT THU APR 12 2012



.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
AN ACTIVE SPRING PATTERN WILL PERSIST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNDAY. THE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE EACH
DAY...AND THE FOCUS FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN WILL
PROGRESS FARTHER EAST WITH EACH DAY. SUPERCELL STORMS PRODUCING
DAMAGING HAIL ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...
ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. STORMS IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO PRODUCE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN.
TRANSITION TO A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING EVENT MAY OCCUR
IN SOUTHERN...CENTRAL...AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA FROM SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY 5 AM
FRIDAY.

$$

CMS

[venture]

No mention of tornadoes on the Norman hazardous outlook for days 2-7...This mean anything or just hesitant to mention them at this point?

They mention it in the forecast discussion. They'll probably start including it in the HWOs starting tomorrow as long as signs continue to point to an outbreak.

[Easy180]

The forecast discussion seems to talk more of flooding than a tornado outbreak...Just wondering if our locals are getting a little too tornado happy at this point

[Bunty]

This is not looking good on my end. Repeated tarot card readings continue to show extremely bad outlook for Oklahoma. I'm not going to go into much details as to not spark a statewide panic, but just be seriously prepared.

Bad weather needs heat for intense development, so be glad that it looks like the temps for the next few days won't get out of the 70s.

[OKCTalker]

Got a new roof, gutters, windows & chimney caps two years ago. I'm not sure the insurance company will stay with me if I file another big claim.

[venture]

Bad weather needs heat for intense development, so be glad that it looks like the temps for the next few days won't get out of the 70s.

A lot of heat is definitely not always needed. If the shear is there you can have violent tornadoes. The EF4 during last November's SW OK tornadoes is clear proof of that.

[Thunder]

A lot of heat is definitely not always needed. If the shear is there you can have violent tornadoes. The EF4 during last November's SW OK tornadoes is clear proof of that.

Just wish there was a +1, Like, or Reputation button for this! <3

[venture]

Watch some weak storms in Custer/Dewey county move NE right now. Could see some small hail from them if they keep going.

[jn1780]

The forecast discussion seems to talk more of flooding than a tornado outbreak...Just wondering if our locals are getting a little too tornado happy at this point

They talk about the tornado potential on the enhance weather page and mention supercells for Friday and Saturday.

[venture]

Evening Model runs and their forecast soundings still show a very volatile setup for Saturday. One concerning point is that forecast storm movement is pushed to 45-50 mph. Both are keeping storms off until late in the day which raises the risk for night time tornadoes. With it being dark and fast moving storms, warning lead times will be much lower than we are use to. Stay alert.