OKC/Will Rogers Air Service Discussion

[Larry OKC]

Umm what? Southwest has $3.3B in debt as of the end of 2009. Not that this is bad though, but they are in debt like any other airline. ...

Don't know what their current status is but that is what I read a few years ago (and I did have a ?). It was shortly after 9/11 and how the major airlines were all neck deep in debt and in severe danger of all going bankrupt. Guess the debt was manageable until people stopped flying.

How does their $3.3B debt compare with the other airlines (presuming they didn't discharge it through bankruptcy reorganization)?

If assigned seats and inflight entertainment are important to you, then by all means, fly those airlines that provide that. Oh, by the way, don't you have to pay extra for the entertainment? I understand that with SW it isn't even an add-on option but there are other options available to passengers (BYOE).

Similar to inflight meals. SW doesn't serve or offer them, but nothing stopping you from bringing your own snacks and meals. Are there any majors that offer meals that aren't charging extra for them too? Remember reading a while back, just as charging extra for baggage, they were charging for meals now too. Point is many things that used to be "free" or included are now additional charges.

[SkyWestOKC]

@venture79

Southwest is not a public service providing service everywhere. They operate on profits versus expenses, if OKC is not a city that can be expanded much, I don't see why they WOULD add more routes. OKC is not a major city by any means, and the bigger cities with a more guaranteed passenger flow will obviously get the service. OKC and other cities like us are very high risk, and as we have seen time and time again, we have service we cannot sustain.

Look at the relatively high O/D (100 or more passengers, 50% each way) markets out of OKC that are not currently served nonstop.
Seattle WA, Sacramento CA, San Diego CA, Oakland (Bay Area) CA, San Antonio/Austin TX, Nashville TN, Philadelphia PA, Santa Ana CA.

All of those are served just fine with one stops or with one connection. The routes are not strong enough to support non-stop service, with the exception of San Diego and San Francisco. Even then, those two routes would be risky, even trying to fill seats on 70 seat jets. Southwest flies 137 seats each flight, and only a handful of the above cities have 137 passengers between the two. Add in other airlines offering connections, and you are looking at maybe 30 people or 40 people per plane at the best on the nonstop flight.

Let's fill our current seats before we beg for more.

Southwest is not at fault. Nor any other airline. No one seems to understand we have a limited amount of people flying out of OKC each day, and we can only support the service we have now. We are not filling flights up right now, what makes you think we can support a major, forget that, a MINOR OKC expansion?

When the people begin to fly more, we will see our service increase. It's not a right to have air service, it is a privilege, and we are given more than we can handle right now.

With that said, I do think OKC will be in positive numbers by the end of this year if the current developing trend continues. Maybe by 2011 we'll have a few new cities? Right now, it's a risky move to add new service to OKC. Frontier is paying for that now, they took a risk on OKC with Florida, and they are losing on that. I heavily doubt this service will continue past April 18th.

[venture]

With that said, I do think OKC will be in positive numbers by the end of this year if the current developing trend continues. Maybe by 2011 we'll have a few new cities? Right now, it's a risky move to add new service to OKC. Frontier is paying for that now, they took a risk on OKC with Florida, and they are losing on that. I heavily doubt this service will continue past April 18th.

I clipped most of your post so the reply wasn't miles long. To sum it up, I think you took my post the wrong way or I wasn't clear enough. Through my involvement with the industry, on and off for the last 12 years - and not as a ramp rat, I don't disagree with anything you have said. I look at the way Southwest has approached the market over the last 10 years. Every move they have made was reactionary and never proactive to growing the market. Las Vegas - to knock out Allegiant and US Airways...Baltimore - because United is doing it...Denver - to try to kill Frontier. If we saw Allegiant follow through and begin OKC-Sanford (Orlando) service, before they chose to just leave the market completely, we would probably have Southwest in the market also. That is, if the market was sustainable.

This brings me to the part I did quote. Oklahoma City is not a Florida market. Never has been, probably never will be. Allegiant was going to do 2-3 flights a week to Sanford, they dropped it. Delta had some RJs flying down there, they dumped it (along with most of the Orlando O&D service), and now Frontier is trying. It is a waste of time. There are other markets that should be look at first.

We saw relative success with TSA's service to New Orleans, but San Antonio was a dud. ExpressJet's Austin service was good at first, and then fell apart...San Antonio had the same result again. So where can we grow? I think any place in Texas is dead because WN or AA will win the battle with one stops through Dallas. We've seen relative weakness to the Northeast, but PHL or BOS may be an option (I would go for PHL to connect into US's network). CLT may be an option going to the Southeast to tie into a network again, much like PHL. To the west, not really much. Seattle is about the only thing that stands out, and that would require Alaska to show interest here.

Some of these markets though require selling the route as OKC being the destination, not origin. If US jumps out of Star and goes to One World, there could be an opportunity to get them in here to add OKC as a spoke to their network. My opinion, CLT or PHL would have worked much better than Phoenix since the US West market just needs to be dissolved and refocus on their eastern strength - but that's for another time to debate. LOL Alaska would be another where OKC is a good opportunity to be a spoke. Considering the strength of the aviation industry in OKC, and Oklahoma in general, 1 daily flight would probably be a good addition.

Other than that...only one other word I can think off to add into OKC. AirTran.

[SkyWestOKC]

OKC is just in grid lock because of the availability of one stops now. We have an advantage on getting Seattle, though, because we do a large amount of the maintenance for Alaska in OKC. A weekly flight would definitely work just for the maintenance flights, and later it probably would make it more than weekly.

I think Florida COULD have worked this time, if the flight times were proper. But the poor flight times are a major reason these flights are arriving and departing with less than 30 people on them.

[venture]

OKC is just in grid lock because of the availability of one stops now. We have an advantage on getting Seattle, though, because we do a large amount of the maintenance for Alaska in OKC. A weekly flight would definitely work just for the maintenance flights, and later it probably would make it more than weekly.

I think Florida COULD have worked this time, if the flight times were proper. But the poor flight times are a major reason these flights are arriving and departing with less than 30 people on them.

I'm not sure if Alaska could make the station work with just one weekly flight. RenoAir started out in similar fashion, and was able to get up to 2-3 daily flights to Las Vegas. Then AA bought them and gutted everything like they normally do. LOL

I do agree that Omaha got the better end of the deal with their flight times.

[soonerguru]

I think Florida COULD have worked this time, if the flight times were proper. But the poor flight times are a major reason these flights are arriving and departing with less than 30 people on them.

Didn't these flights just begin January 17th? It seems a bit early to declare them dead. But then again, I don't have the experience either of you do in the industry.

My point is they've hardly advertised them.

[chrisok]

Are there any majors that offer meals that aren't charging extra for them too?

Continental does.

[venture]

Didn't these flights just begin January 17th? It seems a bit early to declare them dead. But then again, I don't have the experience either of you do in the industry.

My point is they've hardly advertised them.

That is a big problem. The advertising didn't start until after they launched. It should have been going crazy to lead up to launch. Of course I've never seen the airport authority really go out of their way to promote services.

[z28james]

Ok, so let me say this, and keep in mind I have background on aviation besides JROTC and flying at least once a month, if the airlines are failing so much, why doesn't SW just send 50 flights a day to Dallas and United send 50 to Chicago and call it a day since they don't seem to fill plays 100% of the time. It feels like that what they do any more anyway. I am not being cynical here, but I mean wtf, its frustrating getting good air service here. Especially with the crappy service I get from AA.

I would like to see a international flight to London in my life time to see my family personally(I can wish right?), what is the situation with the phase 3 expansion with a customs gate, I know its on hold, but is there any new updates?

[venture]

I doubt we'll ever see London here, simply due to the lack of demand between the industries based here and the banking center in London. I do think that if we get the east concourse done with a customs ready gate - we could see AeroMexico or Mexicana arrive.

I'm trying to understand the earlier part of your comment which I believe is to the capacity dumping airlines tend to do. This is a huge problem with the industry and there needs to be more consolidation. However, some airlines keep bucking the trend. Southwest, opened their massive Denver base to try to kill off a competitor. This is reflected in their load factors which rank them 28th in the industry right now among airlines...74.3% of their seats are filled. In comparison to another major airline, Delta - which is now the largest in the US/world...filled 84.8% of its seats (still ranked 5th overall). One of the best things that could happen right now would be for Southwest or other airlines that have over 25% of their capacity going unused, to either cut back or go under.

[chrisok]

If it were needed, it wouldn't be that difficult to build a small customs facility at one of the existing gates. Nashville has a very small one that stays locked up except when the Air Canada flight(s) arrive. If one was needed here, it could be very small since it'd be a regional jet anyway.

I have to give Southwest credit for a couple of things. One, they have done a wonderful job giving the "appearance" of being cheaper than everyone else. While they are generally cheaper than the legacies for walk up fares, that's about it.

Secondly, they have done a great job marketing the no bag fee.

That been said, I'll do just about anything to avoid flying them. No need to go through the list why, since most of the reasons have already been posted. My biggest reason for not flying with them is the lack of a developed elite status. As much time as I spend in air, these perks (Upgrades, priority baggage handling, upgrades, mileage bonuses, lounge access, and did I mention upgrades) are what makes air travel bearable. I'll be the first to say the benes aren't what they used to be, but it still beats being herded like cattle and making two stops on a "Direct Flight".

[OUman]

A direct flight actually is a flight that makes one or more stops, nonstop flight is one that doesn't make any.

I've flown Southwest multiple times now, and feel it's the best domestic airline out there. This, coming from a person who has flown lots domestically and internationally, on airlines like LH, AF, DL, CO, United Express, etc. I'd rather pay a higher fare then get nickled and dimed with baggage fees, paying for onboard food etc. when I can check bags for free, take whatever food I want onboard and so on. Southwest is a no-nonsense airline, and it's efficient. It is not an international airline (yet), so it doesn't make sense for it cost-wise to have an elite status program.

And I'll never buy the "herded like cattle" argument. You can check-in online early or have someone do it for you, and get a A boarding pass. Even before that system was augmented, WN never treated passengers like cattle. I've seen much worse on international carriers, believe me. I have first-hand experience.

[chrisok]

A direct flight actually is a flight that makes one or more stops, nonstop flight is one that doesn't make any.

I've flown Southwest multiple times now, and feel it's the best domestic airline out there. This, coming from a person who has flown lots domestically and internationally, on airlines like LH, AF, DL, CO, United Express, etc. I'd rather pay a higher fare then get nickled and dimed with baggage fees, paying for onboard food etc. when I can check bags for free, take whatever food I want onboard and so on. Southwest is a no-nonsense airline, and it's efficient. It is not an international airline (yet), so it doesn't make sense for it cost-wise to have an elite status program.

And I'll never buy the "herded like cattle" argument. You can check-in online early or have someone do it for you, and get a A boarding pass. Even before that system was augmented, WN never treated passengers like cattle. I've seen much worse on international carriers, believe me. I have first-hand experience.

Different strokes for different folks. Even though personally, I am exempt from them, I think bag fees are pretty ridiculous as well. Now the overheads are way too crowded, or everyone gate checks their bags.

BTW a good example of a direct/through flight with two stops is WN 512. ORF-BNA-MCI-OKC.

Being international airline doesn't mean you can't have a good elite program. Both Air Tran and Frontier have nice programs. Air Tran provides for complimentary upgrades. Frontier gives you access to their premium seats, Direct TV, and complimentary (adult)drinks.

[traemac]

has anyone heard if the frontier flight to orlando will be extended in to may?

[SkyWestOKC]

@traemac: I would say it is highly unlikely to severely improbable.

On a different note, @venture: A 1x weekly flight could work because I believe they could contract their ground services and above wing to say, American or Delta, for that one flight. It would get their foot in the door and would probably eventually lead to a daily flight or two. An interesting statistic: OKC-Seattle has more local (O/D) demand than Atlanta. The economics of running a Boeing 737 versus a handful of CRJ's though would be a debatable topic, which I don't want to get into. Seattle could work because of connecting traffic to support the relatively strong local demand.

About US Airways, Charlotte could work on a Regional Jet. OKC-Memphis is a very low O/D (local traffic) route, with the strong majority of passengers connecting to different flights. Charlotte could work given a good connection base and an early morning departure from here. Philadelphia could work on RJ's also and so could DCA (Washington Reagan). Those three destinations could work on US Airways if the flights were timed correctly to join the connections. With US Airways' balance sheet and the shakiness of the economy, I doubt we'll see them enter again, for the short term foreseeable future. But the opportunity is there if they wanted to gamble on OKC.

About AirTran, I do not see anywhere they could enter. They could attempt Orlando with better flight times and advertising, as well as offer connections - they would probably kill Frontier on the route (even the Frontier is already bleeding red ink on the route). Baltimore to compete with Southwest, but I don't see that one either. Atlanta; Delta would throw a fit and we'd have a bloodbath on the route: probably capacity dumping on Delta's side. Is that good or bad? You decide.

I would like to see Southwest try Oakland, but I have a good feeling United will beat them to the idea with a non-stop to San Francisco. Midway might be a possibility in the future on Southwest, it would give United and American a run for their money.

[venture]

On a different note, @venture: A 1x weekly flight could work because I believe they could contract their ground services and above wing to say, American or Delta, for that one flight.

I would imagine Alaska would outsource above and under wing here regardless...I don't see a service going above 2 flights a day. America West had CO handle things for awhile with 2-3 daily flights. I just don't see Alaska starting the route with just 1 weekly flight as it would provide no benefit to the business passenger. Sure they could code-share back on just about anyone, but it would be little value to start the route with any less than a single daily flight.

About US Airways, Charlotte could work on a Regional Jet. OKC-Memphis is a very low O/D (local traffic) route, with the strong majority of passengers connecting to different flights. Charlotte could work given a good connection base and an early morning departure from here. Philadelphia could work on RJ's also and so could DCA (Washington Reagan). Those three destinations could work on US Airways if the flights were timed correctly to join the connections. With US Airways' balance sheet and the shakiness of the economy, I doubt we'll see them enter again, for the short term foreseeable future. But the opportunity is there if they wanted to gamble on OKC.

I would probably expect something with Republic ERJ-170s on any of those routes if they happen. I don't think US Airways' balance sheet has anything to do with it, they ended the year with 2.5 billion in cash and are actually pretty stable. They need to get out of Las Vegas and Phoenix though and go back to serving the high yield traffic they have back east.

About AirTran, I do not see anywhere they could enter. They could attempt Orlando with better flight times and advertising, as well as offer connections - they would probably kill Frontier on the route (even the Frontier is already bleeding red ink on the route). Baltimore to compete with Southwest, but I don't see that one either. Atlanta; Delta would throw a fit and we'd have a bloodbath on the route: probably capacity dumping on Delta's side. Is that good or bad? You decide.

Considering their relationship with Frontier, which is getting closer and closer...I doubt they'll want to compete against them. However, they have no fear of Delta and will go after them on the Atlanta market. Sure, Delta can capacity dump all the way...but that usually screws them over in the long run.

I would like to see Southwest try Oakland, but I have a good feeling United will beat them to the idea with a non-stop to San Francisco. Midway might be a possibility in the future on Southwest, it would give United and American a run for their money.

I don't see Southwest trying anything else further west from here. They'll serve the west coast through Denver and Phoenix.

I still like Frontier/Midwest to Milwaukee, AirTran to Atlanta, and US Airways to either Charlotte or Philly.

[SkyWestOKC]

NewsOK

According to the article, Frontier is reporting up to 90% Load Factor for some of the Orlando and Tampa flights. I will try to peak at the Frontier gate sometime next week when they are boarding and deplaning and try to get a passenger count from my naked eye.

A couple weeks ago I was walking by the bag claim when a Tampa flight arrived and I counted about 15 or 20 bags and maybe 25 people there to pick them off the belt. Not a full description of what was on the flight because some people carry-on or are on one night business trips and whatnot.

[chrisok]

Last Sunday I was at the United gate when they boarded the Tampa flight. GA mentioned it was a full flight. (Whatever that's worth.)

[venture]

I've been pricing trips recently, and some where will over $500 RT on some days...so they are packing a few flights it seems.

[SkyWestOKC]

The January performance was absolutely horrible. I am very glad to see that it is turning around and that I may in fact be be proven wrong.

Next week I'll look around if I can find a few minutes off around that time.

[SkyWestOKC]

The January 2010 statistics are available.

For the month (JAN 2010 versus JAN 2009):
OKC [Will Rogers]
*Aircraft Operations were down 29.48% (4,094 from 4,462)
*Enplaned Passengers were down 3.80% (110,225 from 114,576)
*Deplaned Passengers were down 2.18% (131,121 from 133,794)
... Resulting in a net Passenger decrease of 2.97% (226,677 from 233,620)
*Enplaned Freight was down 19.75% (2,457,336 lbs from 3,062,013 lbs)
*Deplaned Freight was down 17.34% (2,744,114 lbs from 3,319,748 lbs)
... Resulting in a net Freight decrease of 18.50% (5,201,450 lbs from 6,381,761 lbs)

PWA [Wiley Post]
*Aircraft Operations were down 29.13% (4,200 from 5,926)


Since it is January, Year To Date stats are the same as for the month of January.

All statistics are based on the year before, not the month before. For example: The January monthly statistics are compared to January 2009, not December 2009.

Source: FlyOKC.com http://flyokc.com/releases%5CJanuary...20Activity.pdf

--Unrelated,
For those interested, this is the current taxiway and runway closures at OKC as of 19 FEB 2010:


Darker red is Runway 13/31. Brighter red are taxiways.
I know:
*Runway 13/31 is closed for PAPI installation
*Taxiways F, J, K, G (where red) are closed for complete reconstruction and widening.

[SkyWestOKC]

Southwest Airlines is restructuring some of their schedules to allow for better connections.

Currently, I can find a few connections that will be in OKC now. Dallas Love to Denver is one of them, through May. Flight lands in OKC at 1:35 and allows a 1 hour connection to the Denver flight.

Austin to Denver is also connecting in OKC through May, as the above flight originates in Austin. So you stop in Dallas and board passengers and fly to OKC, where you will connect on to Denver. Also, lands at 1:35 and departs to Denver at about 2:30pm.

Don't read into this, we are not the next Southwest focus city or hub. This is starting to show up at many small airports now because they decide the opportunity for a connection is there, they might as well sell it. This is not an increase in flights or what have you. They are just restructuring the booking system to allow connections on the flights that already exist but didn't have bookable connections.

As time progresses we may get more bookable connections in here as flight times are adjusted to allow for them. This will a) help our loads in and out of OKC b) help our overall passenger numbers at OKC c) help our airport businesses as more people will be in the airport and may want to buy food during the connection or a souvenir d) allow people from other cities to get familiar with our city, even if that means just the name.

Hopefully more connections will be created from the current flights and we will get some transient passengers.

[HOT ROD]

i hope there is more of this, and perhaps this could be the proof that some airline needs to establish OKC as a hub, mini-hub, or focus city for some of their flights.

hint hint - USAirways, Jet Blue, Midwest Airlines, AirTran, new startups. ......

Southwest's 'connectivity' action should definitely help OKC's numbers, as it will give us some 'hub-like' inflation where we can also 'double-count' people who fly into OKC to connect. .... If everyone else is doing it, by all means - OKC should too. We don't need to ONLY be an O&D airport.

I also hope Frontier (and others) can adjust their flights (particularly East Coast) so that the outbound flight could be in the morning or afternoon, and the inbound be at night. It might be a while before OKC could really work as an inbound morning business destination, as this only works for only a few current routes. ...

[SkyWestOKC]

I found a few more flights: Dallas, Houston to places like Denver, Phoenix, and Las Vegas.

@hot rod. The only airlines with even a remote chance of setting up shop here as a potential focus city are Southwest and Frontier. I say that with great reservation because our local traffic numbers still are very weak for a focus city type setup. That is what airlines look at when starting new flights. Connecting traffic does not show up on our local numbers. (O/D) But with that said, I think we may have a possibility of getting additional flights or possibly even new flights from this, later on. It would be a reverse domino effect: Flight 123 might be selling full out of OKC anyway, but connections are sold onto it, the additional demand might warrant them to add Flight 456. It is hard to tell, but if Southwest shows the same interest in OKC as they have been for the past few years, this is really a no big deal and their increased numbers at OKC will be moot.

[venture]

The more streamlined connections on Southwest are nice, but they'll eventually fade away once the remaining Wright restrictions at Love Field are gone. I'm not sure how many connections are already done in OKC with people flying to Dallas, but some have speculated once Wright is gone - we are inline to lose a flight or two to Dallas.